Romney +4 in Colorado — Rasmussen

The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Romney opening some daylight in the Centennial State, leading by 4-points 50 to 46.  Romney leads by 8 with Independents:

Mitt Romney has now reached the 50% mark for the first time in Colorado and leads President Obama by four in the critical swing state. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters finds Romney with 50% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided. Still, Colorado remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. But Colorado is the fourth swing state that has moved in Romney’s direction in the past week. Florida, Missouri and North Carolina have now shifted from Toss-Up to Leans Romney.

Two weeks ago, the candidates were basically tied in Colorado, with the president edging his Republican challenger 49% to 48%. In mid-September, it was Romney 47%, Obama 45%. The candidates were tied in the two surveys prior to that. Obama defeated Republican John McCain 54% to 45% in Colorado in the 2008 election. Ninety-six percent (96%) of Colorado likely voters say they are certain to vote in this election, and Romney leads 51% to 47% in this group. This overall total includes those who have already voted since Colorado allows early voting. It’s Romney 50%, Obama 49% among early voters. However, just 62% of all likely voters in the state say they have already decided whom they will vote for. Romney’s ahead 56% to 41% among these voters. The president leads 54% to 41% among the 38% who say they still could change their minds before they vote.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 50
Other 2
Undecided 1

16 Comments

  1. TheWIZZ
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 11:25 am | Permalink | Reply

    this is great news !!! _ I ponder a question – how much do the Prez. voting demographics/trends – act as coat tails for Senate candidates in each state ?

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      Depends…if you have Reagan type coattails it does help some. But if you look at major victories, Reagan, Clinton (96) and Obama their really didn’t drag major down tickets with them. But it can certainly help. Because it puts the big MO behind everyone. If a Top Ticket is over like gangbusters and a down ticket is within a couple of points, being with them on stage, campaigning can give you that rub of success.

      In this election however, I would say the reverse is more true. It is more likely the Republican Senate races in Ohio, Penn, WS, etc are helping Romney because of increased enthusiasm and turn out

  2. Kyletp2
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 11:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    Give Romney CO, NC, FL, VA. If the election is close it comes down to Ohio for the easiest path to 270

    • Dennis
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 11:48 am | Permalink | Reply

      Today’s Quinnipiac/CBS poll released today, showing a five point lead for Obama in Ohio. I do not see its party ID split, but would bet the farm it is unrealistically oversampling Democrats. I repeat what I said earlier:

      “Most judge that the electoral ball game is in Ohio. What we see today is the first clear polling evidence that Romney is winning Ohio. Gravis has them tied at 47, with a Dem +9 voter ID split. That is huge for Romney. Even if the 47% for Obama were correct, the challenger should get two-thirds of the undecideds, giving a 51-49 result for Romney. But with such heavy Democrat oversampling, Romney should be much farther ahead than that. As for the PPP (D) poll, if the incredibly Democrat-biased PPP poll has Obama leading by only one point, you know that Romney must be well ahead. Rasmussen’s next Ohio poll should be interesting.”

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

        The Quinnipiac/CBS poll is also D+9. They also want you to believe that the independant vote is going to essentially flip from Obama to Romney, but the Obama will win by the same margine. *Slightly* rediculous.

      • Jim S.
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

        but Obama* margin*

    • jvnvch
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 11:58 am | Permalink | Reply

      Romney will take Ohio, along with Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia. There’s no way my home state of Indiana would swing as much as it has from Obama to Romney without our eastern neighbor doing the same, probably to a lesser degree, but still enough to turn the state red. Indiana and Ohio are not twins, but they are more alike than they are different.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

        Funny thing, when I worked with the Democratic Party 4yrs ago in Nebraska (I used to attend the University of Nebraska-Lincoln), we had ourselves a mini-contest to predict the result of the 2008 election. I predicted 365-173…exactly what resulted. However, I got the states wrong. I had Obama winning Missouri and McCain winning Indiana. I was a bit knocked off my feet on election night when I saw Indiana of all states going to Obama. No way he’s winning that state this time around, but I would tend to agree, Indiana seems like the more conservative sibling of Ohio.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

        I can’t blame you for getting Indiana wrong last time. Most people did. I knew it would be really close, but even I was a little surprised President Obama was able to edge it out, considering our state’s voting history.

        You might find the October 19th FiveThirtyEight blog entry about Indiana interesting. I made several comments there, such as this one:

        “Indiana isn’t the birthplace of the Ku Klux Klan, although it did have a large presence in parts of Indiana for a short period of time long ago, but not now, and not for many decades. There is plenty of tolerance for diversity here, and that’s been the case for several generations of Hoosiers. President Obama wouldn’t have won here in 2008 if there weren’t tolerance for diversity, and my city and county, where almost nine out of ten people are about as white as it gets, wouldn’t have voted for him over John McCain.

        You’re right on one thing, however, and that is the fact most people here aren’t as wedded to a particular political party as most people in most other states in the country seem to be. There is very little straight ticket voting here.”

        Most of my close family and friends voted for Obama last time. I think most of them are suffering from buyer’s remorse, although I’m sure some of them will vote for him again. I’m voting against him again.

      • Kevin
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

        The great thing about Indiana is that it is now a Right to Work State. That’s a big win for Work Choice in the Midwest.

  3. Ranger375
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Okay I am sure it’s only me but I just watched a debate on the polling that has come out today and I had an almost uncontrollable urge to throw something at the TV!

    Thank you all for this site. I feel sorry for the uneducated people in regard to polling.

    Someone should write a simple “how to” guide to understand polling for voters.

  4. Vadim
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Iowa 48:48….

  5. Tom
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    With Romeny up 7 in Gallup, here is a very likely scenario. Romeny takes: FL, NC, VA, OH, PA, MI, WI, IA, MN, NV, NM, CO which brings Mitt to 352. Also in play and probably a surprise or two will be: OR, NJ, WA, CT. This is going to be a mini-landslide for Romney. Can’t stop this Mitt-mentum.

    • allthingsgeography1
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in South Dakota, but am a native Washingtonian and Seattlite. Washington and Oregon are rough territory for Republicans. Reagan is the last Republican to carry both those states in 1984. You’d have to have huge turnout in favor of Romney in rural Washington and Oregon with strong Romney support in the suburbs of Seattle and Portland to turn those states red. G.H.W Bush was the last Republican to even stand a chance, losing both to Dukakis in ’88 in close contests. His son tried to make a run for the Seattle suburbs in ’00, if I remember correctly, but that was a failed venture. If the Gallup lead of 7 points is real and not BS, then such a possibility is not outlandish. But for now, I’d think even MN would be more within reach than Washington and Oregon.

  6. Zang
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It seems like the Quinnipiac polls that are not being run through CBS are more reasonable. The PA poll they released last week was a Quinnipiac only poll, not the CBS/Quinnipiac version. I wonder if CBS is demanding some extra special sauce on the polling that it orders?

  7. Kevin
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney and Ryan have a rally at Red Rocks Amphitheater tomorrow. It will be interesting to see the crowd size considering the venue holds about 9,200.

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