Jim Geraghty of National Review’s “Morning Jolt” sent out more Pennsylvania info from his informed source “Middle Cheese”in today’s email (not on the web yet):
Count me as a skeptic on Blue Pennsylvania turning Red at the Presidential level. But . . . a new Susquehanna polling and research poll of 1376 likely voters shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over Obama in PA. Real Clear Politics rates PA a “toss up,” with Obama leading Romney by an average of 5 points in recent polls, 49.7 to 44.7 percent.
Team Romney put its toe in the water today by sending Paul Ryan to an airport campaign rally in Pittsburgh on his way to Ohio. My campaign sources me they are watching the poll numbers closely and are open to making a play for PA by sending some of their higher profile surrogates for a late push.
The GOP’s message about Obama’s “war on coal” is gaining traction in the western part of the state. And Democratic enthusiasm isn’t what it was in 2008. Still, Pennsylvania reminds me of Lucy with the football.
But Jim Geraghty isn’t the only person with Pennsylvania sources. One of our own smart readers sent some rather interesting thoughts yesterday on how and when Mitt Romney could/should wade into the Keystone State. We’ll come up with clever monikers some other time:
on the media front, Romney has to decide by Friday if he wants to go into PA (and MI and MN). As you point out, PA is basically the anti-early voting state. You can go in late and make waves. I believe the Romney high command is going to make a decision in the middle of the week as to whether to devote paid media to these icing on the cake states. That isn’t any sort of inside info, that’s how I imagine the thought process is going on. If you start airing ads on 10/26 or 10/27, you still have 10-11 days until the election. That’s enough time to get a message out and to change numbers. If he wants to go at it, I would advise him to spend the entirety of next Saturday in the state. Start the day in suburban Philly. Have a noontime rally in the Harrisburg area. Have a late afternoon blowout in the Pittsburgh suburbs. Part of the value of playing in PA would be the shock value. It would be the big story of the weekend. If he doesn’t do it by Friday, I think it would be too late to get any movement with a week or less of advertising. Ideally, the buys would come down Friday afternoon, forcing the Obama media buyers to work a nice hard long weekend 😉
honestly, if Romney gets 52% of the national popular vote, he’ll win PA. That’s what it comes down to. If he wins by 6 points nationally, he’ll win whether he puts media in or not.