Obama – Romney Tied at 47 in Ohio — Suffolk University

The outfit who made all the waves for calling their shot and pulling out of Florida and Virginia (do we even have to mention North Carolina any longer?) has a new poll in Ohio showing the race tied 47 to 47.  The party ID was D +4 (Dem 39, Rep 35, Ind 37). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). A more reasonable split than most polling firms:

Highlights:

  • Obama and Romney are tied 47 to 47
  • With leaners Romney leans 48 to 47.2
  • Among non-early voters, Romney leads 48 to 45
  • Among early voters, Obama leads 54 to 41
  • Early voters made up 20% of the survey
  • Obama’s favorable/Unfavorable is 50/46  — that’s low for him
  • Romney’s favorable/Unfavorable is 50/46  — tied with the President which is huge
  • Does Barack Obama deserve to be re-elected?: 48 to 48
  • Obama job approval at 50/47 — good result
  • Obama leads by 1 on who can best fix the economy, 45 to 44 — good for Obama
  • Obama leads by 7 on foreign policy, 49 to 42 — a steep drop since the Libya attacks
  • Obama leads by 3 on immigration, 43 to 40 — surprisingly even
  • Obama has run a more negative campaign by a margin of 44 to 41
  • Democrats lead on reforming Medicare and Social Security
  • Obamacare remains unfavorable, 49 to 43
Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 47
Other 3
Undecided 3

55 Comments

  1. Blackcloud
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You should change the headline so it clearly states that this is an Ohio poll.

  2. Michel Daoud
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    With CO & IA looking increasingly better, it is becoming more and more plausible that Romney could win without Ohio. I’m assuming Romney will win FL, NC, and VA…with that said, all he would need to do is add CO (looking very good), IA (complete tossup), and NV (have no idea what to think about this state). That would bring the electoral total to a 269-269 tie…which equates to a Romney win.

    • Keith W
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not to mention NH and ME’s one EV in their 2nd district….both of which are looking increasingly probable.

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

        But with 269 EV, we get Romney and a dem VP. Not ideal.

      • Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

        If the Dems had 60+ votes in the Senate in that scenario I would see them putting Ryan in as VP.

        But because the Senate will be more than likely 55 or less Dems, closer to 50…I would see them do Biden so he could be a tie breaker for Democrats.

        There is a part of me that wants to see this…it is how the country was run for the first 100+ yrs…second place got the VP slot…..make for some fun fun times.

      • spottedreptile
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

        Nebraska, I think, not NH.

  3. John Fisher
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Boy, polls are really moving in R direction today — national and state

  4. MikeN
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Have you mentioned Josh Jordan’s analysis that Ohio was actually D+5 in 2008?

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      According to CNN exit, the final 2008 weight was 39D/31R/30I.

      • Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

        Yes, for now I’m sticking with those #s but Josh (@NumbersMuncher) makes a compelling case why the real D/R/I spread is D +5 for Ohio in 2008.

  5. damien
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    47-47…others?…thats johnson…i dont know who else is on the ballot but you gotta think a couple of those will drop to romney and und’s go to romney….this is good poll

  6. No Tribe
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That 48-48 tie on whether Obama should be re-elected. Its 287-287. 24 undecided and 2 refused.

    Suffolk has OH and NH both tied.

  7. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    any discussion on the correlation between mandel-brown contest with that of romney-obama…

    victory is our only option…and control of the white house and the senate

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Mandel’s favorables are not that great. He’s -7, pretty weak at this point. Probably depends on whether a lot of urban Obama voters vote below the Presidential or not. Scott Rupert is at 6% Looks in Brown’s favor.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Coal only employs 3000 people in Ohio (per Suffolk)? I thought it was a lot more than that, what a small group for such a big play that is made on it in S Ohio.

    I have to laugh when I read some of these internals, about the people they are polling. Shows 10 people still “undecided” in the 2008 election, on the question of whom they voted for…

    Media they trust the most:

    25% abc/cbs/nbc
    10% msnbc
    15% cnn
    33% fox
    3% comedy central
    1% cspan

  9. No Tribe
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The only real quibble with this poll, again, is the double-dipping going on with LV models and those whom have already voted. In ’08, those whom voted early made up 29.7% of the total Ohio vote. This poll has 20% whom say they have already voted, yet to date, only a fraction of those numbers have voted: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

    Day of election voters favor Romney 48-45

  10. Todd
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Josh Jordan just poked a truck sized hole in the almighty Nate Silver…
    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan?pg=1

    • SR
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I read this too. Nate’s a partisan hack and the article juts proves it.

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Last line…”Homer Simpson.” That was very harsh, but true. Nate Silver is a partisan, and he should at least be non-partisan in his poll “weighting.”

      The most important line of the post was that the overwhelming number of the 6% undecideds will break for Romney. This is true, and barring a major debate disaster, R has this won.

      • Todd
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

        I’m hoping that my word of the day on Nov. 7th is schadenfreude………Honestly, it’s amazing that all the headlines are “Obama’s Firewall is Holding” rather than “President Under 47%” as Keith stated earlier.

  11. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    20% already voted? Not likely. Source (updated as of 10/20): http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
    Per this spreadsheet 11% have already voted. This data is admittedly incomplete, but I don’t think it is 50% incomplete (which is what it would have to be to mesh with the 20% already voted in this poll). All the big urban counties are in here (Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Summit), what is missing is mostly smaller counties with a few exceptions:

    A couple noteworthy missing counties include Butler and Clermont (near Cincy, big GOP counties).

    FYI regarding the auto bailouts look at Lucas county (Toledo- Jeep plant), also Trumbull (Lordstown plant)

    Some more data regarding Ohio early voting: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2947417/posts

    PRESS ON!!!

  12. Posted October 22, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    HA new NH poll shows OBAMA up 9….up 9….when EVERY polls shows tie or Romney lead of 1-3. Reallt? And RCP uses it in the average. Which just throws the state back to Obama. Jeez this stuff is nuts.
    Best I can tell it was D 47% R 38% I 15%

    • Todd
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 4:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Question, how can such a small state have such wildly divergent polls? On a better note, Gravis just put Romney within the margin of error in Pa..48-45

      • Posted October 22, 2012 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

        Who runs RCP and WHY in God’s name do they include stupid polls like this? I mean same thing if you had a poll out of nowhere showing Romney up by 12 in Wisconsin I would say get rid of it.

      • Ranger375
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

        That is a very good question?

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bad poll. In 2008, Final breakout was D/R/I – 29/27/45

    • M.Remmerde
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      LOL @ Indies 15% in NH. Holy heck. In the single most independent laden state in the country, they’re going with 15%? That’s madness. Possibly the single worst line item in any poll this year, and that’s saying a lot. In what universe would Ind. turnout in NH be DOWN THIRTY POINTS over four years ago?

  13. zang
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I have emailed the people at RCP about what criteria they use for poll inclusion. They never respond. They include certain very questionable polls, while ignoring others. They recently included the National UConn poll, but won’t include the UPI Tracking Poll.

    • Ranger375
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Saw an interview with the guy that runs RCP last night – seemed pretty down the middle to me. Just noticed the IBD/Tipp national results and they had O up by 4 but if I am reading right it was D+7. Might have to check me on that – I am new to all of this stuff but I am trying to learn.

      • zang
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

        I don’t think RCP is “biased” toward Democrats — I think they’re arbitrary. They have no definitive written guidelines as to why they include one poll over another. What is the time period for an averaging? 5 days, 1 week, 2 weeks? They do not say. Sometimes old stale polls remain in an average for a long time,. other times… no.

      • Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

        They use seemingly any poll that comes along…the problem is outliers kill the average.

        The problem is the media will use the averages…and if Obama wins by 1 vote no big deal. but if Romney wins and the averages 1) show him not to have won or 2) he wins by a thin margin there will be riots in the streets claiming he stole the election for the racts, hard core right wing neocon, blah blah.

        This has to be evident and convicincing

    • jeff
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ive emailed before as well and no response. My conclusion is that they pick and choose which polls to include to fit the narrative that the race is too close to call. I suspect that if Obama was pulling ahead RCP would not hesitate to include polls favoring ahead. Political bias. Plain and simple.

  14. zang
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    They just put a Zogby poll into the national average. Zogby is probably among the worst of the worst. Anyone who remembers Election Day 2004, when he started changing all of his projections to Kerry, based upon erroneous exit poll data, know what I mean. Why in the hell would the Washington Times associate with Zogby?

    • bman77
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Newsmax is tarnishing their good name by associating with Zogby as well. Why two reputable conservative news organizations would get tied up with this witch doctor pollster is beyond me.

      • zang
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

        I am guessing that he may have offered his “services” at heavily discounted rates … but you know what they say.. you get what you pay for.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

        What’s lmao about the unholy alliance is that Zogby is producing all of these pro-Obama polls for the Washington Times and Newsmax. Seriously, I’ve not seen a single one yet that doesn’t favor Obama.

  15. Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    D+5 with Obama up 1. The trend is Tied or Romney up if you look at most of the polls this weekend and today.

    Even Gallup’s editor has said because they are so far outside the “norm” that have continuiously examined their methods, made tweaks and trying to make sure they are accurate.

    I am wondering if the likely screens are just screwed up or are they just not getting good answers or are the american people by in large Messed up this year?:)

  16. zang
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    because there are not enough tracking polls already:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “In the seven states designated as “toss-ups” by The Washington Post plus Ohio, it’s Romney 52 percent to Obama’s 46.”

      How many tracking polls are there now?

      TIPP
      Gallup
      WaPost
      PPP
      Zogby
      RAND
      Ipsos

      Lotsa noise.

    • Ranger375
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 5:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      On ABC looks like Obama stayed the same Romney up 2. I say that supports the gain for Romney trend.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 6:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They’re doing this so that their crap polls don’t fall off the RCP aggregator. The networks, NYTimes, WaPo are going ALL IN this election, trying to mold public perception right up to election day and on through it. They know this might be the last election for some of them, given what is happening to the industry. Fasten your seatbelts.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

        It’s just about baked in at this point. I’d give the status quo, polls tied, for it not to matter. In a close election like this, the polls are not going to be exact. I posted a link to the only close election we’ve had at the Presidential in the last 50 years, 2000, and how the final poll numbers at the state level were not very close to the digit, and usually off by 2-5%

  17. zang
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ^^^ The 2000 Election final polls were greatly impacted by the last minute DUI revelation. I would like to see Rasmussen start a daily tracking poll for Ohio.

  18. zang
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Now See BS to the rescue: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57537319/poll-obama-romney-locked-in-tight-race/

    • Ranger375
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 7:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Why is it after you read the details in this poll the number at the top make no sense?

      Kind of insults your intelligence.

  19. No Tribe
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Holy mother of all polling national days. I am counting 15 national polls released today. My oh my, here is the tally:

    Romney/Obama

    R+6 – 51/45: Gallup
    R+3 – 48/45: SUSA
    R+2 – 49/47: Rasmussen
    R+2 – 49/47: Battleground
    R+2 – 49/47: ARG
    R+1 – 48/47: UPI
    O+1 – 48/49: WaPost
    TIED- 48/48: PPP
    O+3 – 47/50: Zogby
    TIED- 47/47: NBC
    TIED- 46/46: IPSOS
    O+2 – 46/48: CBS
    O+2 – 46/48: RAND
    O+3 – 46/49: Democracy Corps
    O+4 – 43/47: TIPP

    The aggregate, rounded off, is tied at 47, of course.

    OK, if you really want to know, Romney is ahead by .07

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Obama leads in 6, Romney leads in 6, and 3 are tied. Can this go on another 14 days, or is it going to break open and over? I saw Chuck Todd and Jonathan Martin saying if it breaks, it will do so to Romney, not Obama, to Chris Matthews. Nice consensus.

      • jeff
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

        The problem is most oversample democrats. Just average out the Gallup and Ras polls and you have a pretty good idea where the race is at. About a 4 point lead for Romney.

    • zang
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      WOW. But you’re including Internet polls in the average.

  20. Ranger375
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    .07 — and the Liberal Media Headlines — “Obama amasses a huge lead in the largest polling day in the history of polling in the entire universe!!!”

  21. zang
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    and here’s WSJ trying to cover its backside and provide an explanation for why its prior polling was bogus:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203400604578072581982298760.html

  22. Dave
    Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:01 am | Permalink | Reply

    CBS news was the best poll in the 2000 election calling Bush by something like 0.2%. I tend to believe their polls. Of course every election cycle people at companies change and agendas change so add that to the mix but just going off thier 2000 polls and subsequent polls, CBS seems like a more reliable poll. Thoughts?

    • zang
      Posted October 23, 2012 at 12:44 am | Permalink | Reply

      CBS isn’t doing its owm polling this year, quinnipac is

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