Obama +5 in Ohio with a Party ID of D +9 — CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac

You can’t have everything and I guess this poll result is better than the laughable Quinnipiac poll last month showing President Obama with a 10 point lead with the same party breakdown. At least Quinnipiac is consistent in their auditioning for a job in Obama’s second term. They threw me off last week when they put out some fairly sampled polls, but here we are right back to last month’s monstrosity of an Ohio poll over-sampling Democrats by 9%, higher than the 8% margin they enjoyed in 2008. Party ID is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 34). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). As I wrote last month, “This is for a state that less than 12-months ago went to the polls in a very pro-Union turnout and also voted to REPEAL Obamacare by a margin of 66 to 34.” Considering we have the same party ID as last month, this poll is really really bad for the President.  He’s down 7 with Independents, he’s down 7 among men, and his month-over-month comparisons (below) are horrible. Democrats won’t enjoy near the advantage they had in 2008 and this poll claims Ohio is even more Democrat this time around which simply isn’t true.

The early vote issue

Obama leads among early voters 54 to 39 and 20% of those surveyed said they were early voters. The rise of early voting seems to be skewing results in favor of Democrats which was deftly explained by Adrian Gray previously. If Democrats have a propensity to vote early and early voters are polled, more Democrats will get through the likely voter screen and shade results towards Democrats. This is a problem polling forms are going to have to work towards re-calibrating polls reflecting this unintended Democrat over-sampling. It is not a bias in the polling it is just a flaw in polling methods today failing to appropriately take into account this new phenomenon.

Highlights compared to last month:

  • Independents support Romney by 7-points, up from a 1-point lead last month
  • Both sides lock down their base (93%) with nominal/insignificant crossover (5% Romney, 6% Obama)
  • Republicans are decidedly more enthusiastic about voting 52 to 40 — similar to the 10-point gap last month
  • Men support Romney by 7-points, 51 to 44 — similar to the 8-point gap last month
  • Women support Obama by 15-points, 55 to 40 — down from a 25-point gap
  • Youth vote supports Obama by 25-points, 59 to 34 — down from 35-points
  • Seniors support Romney by 7-points, 51 to 44 — reversing an Obama 1-point lead
  • Obama Job Approval good at 50/47
  • The candidates split on who would do better on the economy 48 a piece

39 Comments

  1. Posted October 22, 2012 at 7:59 am | Permalink | Reply

    Geez, how hard is it to weight the poll by the proper number of early voters?

    The cynic in me suggests some pollsters and media outlets aren’t interested in “solving” the early-voter problem, since it gives Obama a nice boost.

  2. housebroken dad
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    Man, 15 more days…can’t wait to fire off emails to these crooked pollsters and tell them what a sham they are for trying to influence an election.

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 11:50 am | Permalink | Reply

      remember an old campaign addage…signs and bumper stickers don’t vote….don’t get side tracked by signs, water coolers and thinking we can unwind polls. The facts are the POLLS (as they are what they are) show Romney down. Do not rest, do not give up until at least some of the respectable polls show Romney up…then and only then can we start to breath a sigh of relief that the end game is in sight.

  3. No Tribe
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    What?

    Party ID is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 34).

    That’s impossible. Is the math right here, that adds up to 95% What about the missing 5% Is that where Obama’s 5% lead came from?

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yea, it’s often not 100%. 3% were Other 1% “Don’t Know” which are sometimes people who don’t want to give their party affiliation.

      The missing one percent are the decimals that get rounded up and down.

  4. Barf
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:26 am | Permalink | Reply

    So if the election were today would Romney win Ohio?

  5. Michel Daoud
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 8:57 am | Permalink | Reply

    Thank you for posting this information Keith. How these CBS & NBC polls are considered “fair” is a real head scratcher.

  6. Tom
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 9:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    May be the best Romney poll yet. It is amazing the depths these leftists will go to try and get there socialist re-elected.

  7. Medicine Man
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen has been doing their party ID even. Will be interesting to see what their next poll will be. There has been some major movement in his swing state poll (7 day rolling average) from Obama +2 to Romney +4 in 4 days…

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 9:23 am | Permalink | Reply

      Even for Ohio

  8. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 9:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    Hey all – FYI I live just outside Columbus, from my “on the ground” viewpoint I can tell you that Obama is losing all conversations around the water cooler, we are flooded with RR signs and car stickers and you see zero OB. Totally different mood here in normally blue Franklin county. I hear the same things fro folks in suburban Cleveland. Suburban Cincy is red to the point of revolutionary.

    I just can’t see Obama taking this state. The auto industry actually doesn’t have a huge footprint here that part is so overstated (excluding Hondas presence in Marysville of course, they are non union)

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 9:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for the update. I understand this question is not the most scientific, but we’re you in Ohio in ’04 and if so, what does it feel like today compared to ’04?

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink

        Yes I was here in 04 (I’ve lived here my whole life – 40 yrs)

        The vibe vs. 2004: as you said not scientific, but my $0.02:

        1. More GOP enthusiasm now vs then (in fact I have NEVER seen it higher)
        2. Less Dem enthusiasm vs 08 and 04 – very very significantly less!
        3. Average non political joe = somewhat less into it than 04 (but more into it on the RR side)

    • MattWestfall
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t forget Lordstown, though. 6,500 people making the Chevy Cruze. Thats Dem bread and butter families, there.

      • C-Bus GOP
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink

        Not forgetting lords town or jeep in Toledo, just saying its a relatively small footprint and overstated by BO and all

      • Todd
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:16 am | Permalink

        I think the auto connection has been way over hyped and more importantly the underwater mortgages not given enough attention. The real estate market in Ohio has been absolutely devastated.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:23 am | Permalink

        Interestingly Todd…I think in my mind, that is something that lingers, but with that said, here in Michigan, my brother is voting Obama because of the bailout. EVENTHOUGH, I remind him that our mother, who is a GM bond holder, got screwed out of 30k of her 100k nest egg. People are loyal…to a fault.

    • Todd
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 9:49 am | Permalink | Reply

      I’m in super blue Cuyahoga County and I would call it dead even as of now. One thing is for sure, the massive support that Obama had in ’08 is a whisper of it’s former self. Anyone that claims to support Obama says it almost apologetically so and Romney’s support is very vocal. If no October surprise, I would call Ohio for Romney by 2-4pts.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:19 am | Permalink | Reply

      Very interesting. Live in West Michigan, so not on the border, but my recollection was that in ’04, both camps were quite motivated. Dems were more motivated by the hatred of Bush than the excitement of Kerry. GOP and the evangelicals were partially motivated by the marriage amendment. Bush lost indies by 19 points but their was a R+5 differential to compensate for that.

      To hear that the GOP is even more motivated (in your humble opinion) is encouraging. There is some objective data regarding absentee vote requests and early voting that back up your claims. What is truly nice and historic about GOP voters in general is the distrust in the media. We vote even if the media tells us the sky is red.

  9. Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    Drudge R-50 O-46 in CO

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:15 am | Permalink | Reply

      It’s rasmussen. He’s teased it all morning. Just waiting for him to post the write up

      • stephanie
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink

        Is Rasmussen going to release any #s for OH today?

      • Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink

        That I do not know.

      • Keith W
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 11:02 am | Permalink

        Ras is releasing an Iowa poll at 11:00CST.

    • stephanie
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      What’s the national number fro Gallup today?

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:20 am | Permalink

        1pm

      • Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:24 am | Permalink

        1pm EDT today

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:24 am | Permalink | Reply

      Rasmussen doesn’t do more than weekly updates….probably in a 2-3 days

  10. Bob
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:18 am | Permalink | Reply

    RCP PA avg has Obama up 5, but they never entered the last Susquehanna Poll with Romney up 4. They only show an old Susquehanna Poll with Obama up 2.

  11. Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    As I’ve said in other posts, even using this poll’s own numbers, Romney has a 120,000 vote advantage among Ohio independents (consistent with other polls). McCain had a 140,000 vote advantage among R’s and D’s who voted in person in 2008. If Romney equals that (every metric says he will exceed it by a lot), then Obama has to make up 260,000 among R’s and D’s who vote absentee. Halfway through the absentee vote process, he was ahead by 28,000 and Republicans were narrowing that margin. This all points to a 200,000-250,000 vote loss for O, which translates to about about a 4 point Romney win. Anybody running D+9 polls in Ohio at this point is a propagandist, not a pollster.

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink | Reply

      Nicely done. Thanks for sharing.

    • jeff
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink | Reply

      I agree. Its becoming quite clear that Ohio is becoming more and more Obamas last stand as other states like CO VA NC and FL fall into place for Romney. I think the MSM narrative will be that Romney cant win withput OHIO so they will push these phony polls showing Obama ahead there. Pure propoganda.

    • Posted October 22, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      One question: How do you get that Obama is ahead only 28,000 among the absentee vote process? I worry, because Rasmussen is showing Obama up big in the “already voted in Ohio” category. Just trying to figure this out…

  12. jvnvch
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    A D+9 poll in Ohio is a joke. A very bad joke, to be sure, but still a joke. Really, I’m laughing at it right now. Derisively, of course.

    I wonder how much longer some of these pollsters can keep this foolishness up. Not much longer, I think.

  13. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    As much as I know this poll is way off, it still pisses me off that it is given the dignity of even appearing on RCP. 5 points!!! I mean can they publish that with a straight face????? McCain lost by 4.5% in a GOP bloodbath wave election in 2008. He was out of money, and crapped the bed at the end by suspending his campaign for the Lehman brothers thing – all while Barry rounded up every inner city resident with and without a pulse to vote early 5X. And they say 5% as if Barry is going to expand his lead????

    I mean, I know why they’re doing this. #1 the polling trying to incorporate early voting is skewing the sampling. And #2 – especially with the other happenings, the new Ras polls in CO and IA – it is clear that Obama views OH as his Alamo, where he will make his last stand. The Dems know what little enthuiasm they do have will spontaneously combust along with Chris Matthews’ head the minute we see an Ohio R+2 poll come out. Literally every single one of their 1000 offices per county in each swing state will be vacated while the staff drop to their knees in tears out in the streets…….the entire Obama balloon will burst once this happens and it is clear CBS/Quinnipac will not be the one to let that happen.

    I tell you, I have lived in this state my whole life. I know Ohio politics.

    In 2004 you really didn’t know which way it was gonna go. Both sides were vocal. Lots of Bush and Kerry signs and stickers. Long lines at the polls. Both sides made their cases. It was really a stalemate in many ways, like a high-stakes poker game waiting on the river card. Honestly, given that Dems are usually louder mouths and more obnoxious than Reps, I really thought Bush might lose. He won by 3 pts if I recall correctly, when the turnout was R+5. 150K votes.

    In 2008 it was no shock that Obama won pretty big. All the early voting of course. And McCain….crapping the bed with the whole “I’m gonna suspend my campaign…”. I knew we were in trouble. D+5 and Obama wins by 450K. The college students were going apes@@t over Obama. Obama stickers/signs/shirts everywhere. You couldn’t go 10 feet without a bunch of Obama BS inundating you.

    2012….A very different climate than the past 2 years. Really – much quieter than you would think. The GOP is fired up – the rallies are getting big crowds, signs and stickers are abundant (but honestly not as abundant as Obama’s were in 2008 or either candidate in 2004). But they are growing day by day, and RR are getting close to 2004-level signage.

    Really you wouldn’t even know the democratic party even exists here in suburban columbus right now. No detectable presence. I would honestly – honestly – say the ratio of RR to OB signs and stickers right now is about 30:1 if not more. In the Northern Franklin county suburbs, you see essentially zero OB and pretty heavy RR. In Bexley, Upper Arlington, German Village (more in-the-city, close to downtown suburbs and neighborhoods) it is probably about 60:40 RR to OB. These are neighboorhoods that were probably 90:10 Kerry or Obama in the last 2 elections.

    Long story and I’m being longwinded here – but I tell you D+8 or D+9 just ain’t gonna happen.

    D+9 would be HISTORIC in this state. Heck D+7 would be historic. “Hope and Change” coming off of 8 years of pent up Bush hatred with a broken-down McCain gave us D+5/D+6 here. Bush was R+5 as we know. With all the early voting crap I don’t see R+5 again. With the clearly increased GOP enthusiasm, diminished urban/suburban Dem enthusiasm and less of an early voting advantage – mixing up a combination of the numbers that we know, historical info, national trends, and living my whole life in Ohio gestalt feelings – I am going to guess the final turnout will be in the neighborhood of R+2. (My un-scientific rationale: take Obama’s 2008 D+6 to start. Take away about 3-4 from the early voting based on the #’s we know, extrapolated. Take away 2 for the national pro-republican trend Rasmussen describes. Take away another 2-3 for a fired-up GOP and unenthusiastic democrat base) Plus independents are breaking for Mitt. OK maybe R+1 or even if you factor in some democratic voter fraud……

    Yes – I just predicted a turnout about 10 points away from the national polls D+7 to D+9 estimates. I really am not trying to be a GOP homer here. But I tell you R+2 is more what I feel on the ground. I don’t feel anywhere near D+7/D+9.

    • Kevin
      Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Real Clear Politics should have an asterisk next to any poll that has a +3 or more Democrat sample.

  14. EpiphoneKnight
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Suffolk shows a tie in OH with D +4 sample today. 39D-35R 27 other. It’s only registered voters however. What do you all make of that?

  15. C-Bus GOP
    Posted October 22, 2012 at 3:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Update on OH early voting:

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2947417/posts

One Trackback

  1. By Ohio shows +5% for Obama? Hmmm… on October 22, 2012 at 9:11 am

    […] Obama +5 in Ohio with a Party ID of D +9 — CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac « Battleground Watch. […]

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