Paul Ryan Retail Politicking in Iowa

Iowa can be a tough state for politicians who are less comfortable meetin-n-greetin, cheesin-n-squeezin and all that jazz. Paul Ryan is right at home in Iowa being their neighbor to the North and sharing their mid-western sensibilities. Today, Ryan has a few stops in the Hawkeye State before moving on to Colorado later tonight:

Appealing to football fans of all stripes, vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan said he and his running mate are offering more than just a “well-founded critique” of the president, but ideas for reinvigorating the economy. “We can do this. This is within our grasp,” the Republican congressman told a crowd of 1,300 outside a sporting goods store here. “So Council Bluffs, Cornhuskers and Hawkeyes and everybody in between – even Packer fans and Badgers because I see a few of you here in the audience. OK, maybe four – we can do this. We can get this country back on the right track.”

Next stop Sioux City

After giving a 12-minute speech that was well received by the mix of Iowans and Nebraskans, Ryan departed for Sioux City. The program there begins at 3:45 p.m. at Bev’s on the River, 1110 Larsen Park Road, in Sioux City.

Republican early voting up

Republicans in Pottawattamie County are doing better this year with voter participation than four years ago. The county is overperforming 2008 by nearly 9 percent on in-person early voting, as well as absentee ballots requested and cast, said Romney’s Iowa campaign spokesman, Shawn McCoy.

Sad Joe

Vice President Joe Biden attracted about 450 to a rally at the same casino and shopping complex on Oct. 4, a Thursday.

6 Comments

  1. Dennis
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Most judge that the electoral ball game is in Ohio. What we see today is the first clear polling evidence that Romney is winning Ohio. Gravis has them tied at 47, with a Dem +9 voter ID split. That is huge for Romney. Even if the 47% for Obama were correct, the challenger should get two-thirds of the undecideds, giving a 51-49 result for Romney. But with such heavy Democrat oversampling, Romney should be much farther ahead than that. As for the PPP (D) poll, if the incredibly Democrat-biased PPP poll has Obama leading by only one point, you know that Romney must be well ahead. Rasmussen’s next Ohio poll should be interesting.

    • jeff
      Posted October 21, 2012 at 7:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think most telling is that he is not maintaining the required early voting margins to overcome the expected big turnout for Romney on election day. Remember in 2008 Mcain won the Ohio vote on election day but Obamas large early voting margins won the day.

    • kyle
      Posted October 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Hope you are right. My parents live in Ohio….and every night on the news they see lines of “low income” lined up around the block!!

  2. Posted October 21, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So are the Republicans in good shape or bad shape with early voting here? I understood the numbers were going well, on track to beat 2004, but now the spin is that the Democrats are doing better?

    • Posted October 21, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      From the article:

      Pottawattamie County GOP Chairman Jeff Jorgensen, charged up by what he called a huge crowd for Ryan, said he doesn’t think the rolling average of Iowa polls, which shows Obama up 2.4 percentage points, reflects the current voter mood here.

      “There’s no way that can be accurate right now,” Jorgensen said. “Romney’s going to pull this out by three to five points.”

      Republicans in Pottawattamie County are doing better this year with voter participation than four years ago. The county is overperforming 2008 by nearly 9 percent on in-person early voting, as well as absentee ballots requested and cast, said Shawn McCoy Romney’s Iowa campaign spokesman.

    • Eric
      Posted October 21, 2012 at 7:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s just that…spin.

      Ohio has been slightly to the right of the national electorate in election after election after election for decades. Look it up. Only in 2004 was it very slightly to the left of the national electorate. Remember how much Kerry focused almost exclusively on Ohio in 2004? It moved the state maybe a couple of points. Elections are about demographics. These spinning fools want people to believe the old lie that “This time it’s different!”

      As the wisest man to ever lived once said, “There’s nothing new under the sun.”

      If Romney wins nationally by the margin that I expect him to, 5-7%, then he’ll win Ohio by a similar margin, if not slightly more than that. If the national margin turns out to be very close, then Ohio will be very close as well.

      As of right now, my best guess is that Romney leads nationally by 3-4% and by a similar or slightly larger margin in Ohio. With Ohio in Romney’s column (in addition to Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida, which are firmly in camp Romney), then that brings Romney to 253 electoral votes. He needs just 16 more to hit 269.

      The best options are Virginia(13), Colorado(9), New Hampshire(4), Iowa(6), Pennsylvania(20), Wisconsin(10), Nevada(6), Michigan(16), Minnesota(10), and Oregon(7).

      I listed those states in the order I consider them most likely to win. That would make Colorado the tipping point state.

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