In the “Commentary & Analysis” section:
Real Clear Politics Screen Grab for Monday October 21, 2012
Congrats, Keith. I reallybelieve your MN analysis was the best one and am glad to see it on RCP. Your latest Nevada posting is also very cool.
Ha. Amidst Gallup saying +7 Romney and TIPP saying Obama +6 is NBC saying it is tied!
IBD is about as anti-Obama as the business world goes. I doubt they like publishing this poll.
Well, between those three, and Ras being at +2 Romney, is probably an accurate picture of the race.
Although, tomorrow, Gallup is expected to shift off Romney’s big day.
Also, TIPP finds Obama at 45% to 46% for Romney in the South, and leading by 1% among men? That is just not the case at all.
Averages out to Obama at 47% which is a losing number for an incumbent.
I was bracing a bit of an Obama bump from the last debate, but it never came. Rasmussen said he saw a small Romney bump instead! This means that the Democrats are 0 out of 3 in debate wins. Even the ones where they said they won, they didn’t. Nice going. 🙂
Why is Gallup expected to shave off Romney’s big day? Is it because of the debate bounce?
Tribe, Keith, look at the internals of the TIPP poll. They are not even light years within the galaxy of belief:
Obama gets 22% vote of conservatives?
Obama gets 39% of white vote?
Romney up 6 among independents?
Obama only trails Romney by 1 point in the South?
Obama leads by 1 with male voters?
This poll is a laced joint with some serious hallucinogens when smoked results in madness.
Fire, it is bizarre. Yet, TIPP has gotten the exact margin correct the last two elections. The thing to notice is that they have 8-9% undecided. I would expect that tightens up, and some of these come into a making sense realm.
What do you think of Ezra Klein and Gallup editor in chief Frank Newport’s anylisys of the gallup poll showing Romney up 7?
And yet, TIPP shows Obama trailing Romney by just 1% in the south. There are some drastic changes to enthusiasm showing up here in Gallup. Also happening in the RAND. Significant enthusiasm for Romney, and not for Obama.
Congrats, your insightful & informative work is rightfully being noticed. Compared to Liberal sites like 538 Blog you actually explain your reasoning with facts & figures not just gut feelings.
Aaahhhhh, sweet signs of DESPERATION……………..
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