Nevada Early Voting is Starting and Day One Results Are Out

Early voting is a new phenomenon that is has great implications on the final election outcome.  Despite this, I don’t much enjoy blogging it.  The numbers get updated sporadically, there is an inherent uncertainty in what the requests or submissions actually mean and the sample sizes are really small.  This makes drawing conclusions not much better than just plain old guess work until a critical mass of votes have accumulated.  And by that time someone else has already done a better job analyzing the data than I could so I just leave it to them. One of the only reasons this blog has any popularity is I am doing the work major media outlets refuse to do which allows them to misrepresent the polls however they like (always against Republicans obvs).  That said, I know this is rightfully a big issue to a lot of people so I’ll provide some preliminary info and direct you to where you can check the numbers in the coming days for yourselves as you see fit.

Thus far 3 Nevada Counties have reported results: Carson County, Douglas County and Washoe County. Of this list we only care about Washoe County (Reno) because that is one of the Battleground Counties, it comprised nearly 19% of the 2008 Nevada electorate and Romney should flip it back after Obama carried it in 2008.  This is why yesterday’s endorsement of Romney by the Reno Gazette-Journal was so important. Endorsements may not persuade voters, but they are a clear indication of informed voter sentiment. And when they switch endorsements against an incumbent that is noteworthy.

This is much the same as all-important Clark County (Las Vegas) which accounted for over 67% of the total Nevada vote in 2008.  Obama will carry Clark, but it is the margin that will be key. Clark releases their first day data at 11pm Mountain time (1am EDT).

So we see the combination of Clark and Washoe account for 86% of the entire Nevada vote making the rest of the counties rounding error to what happens in those two population centers.  Every other county is also heavily Republican too so seeing advantages there don’t mean as much either.

Day 1 results are as follows:

Responses are by party registration, not their actual vote

2012 Washoe County: 9,638 votes

  • Dem 47.8% — 4607 votes
  • Rep 37.5% — 3614 votes
  • None/Oth 14.7% — 1417 votes

Thanks to commenter M. Remmerde we have the 2008 day 1 comparison for Washoe:

2008 Washoe County: 6,554 votes

  • Dems 59.64% –3909 votes
    Rep 25.45% — 1668 votes
    Other 14.91% — 977 votes

The Democrat advantage of 34 points on the first day four years ago is now on 10 points .  But just as interesting is the enthusiasm measure. The total early vote is up 3,084 but the Democrat vote increase is only 698 and the “Other” is up only 440.  Republicans on the other hand are up 1,946, 3x as much as the Democrats.  That type of enthusiasm and early vote ground game is quite similar to what we are seeing in Ohio.  It’s only day one but it’s nice to come out of the gates strong.  Heavily Democrat Clark County is the real test but expect incredible Democrat #s there just like Iowa.  They key for Republicans will be to fight their way back from now until election day to “mind the gap.”

Clark County: 33,204 votes, this is an increase from 25,100 in 2008

  • Dem 55.4% — 18,388 votes
  • Rep 28.9% — 9588 votes
  • None/Oth 15.7% — 5228 votes

Nevada expert Jon Ralston says the percentage split is similar to 2008.  No exact 2008 #s given.  UPDATE:  Getting word that Mr. Ralston may have shaded his color on the 2008 comparison. The current spread of ~26% is a big spread but I’m hearing it’s much smaller than the 2008 margin, much like Washoe County.  I still don’t have verifiable numbers so I’ll leave it at that for now (time for bed). If it is true, though, I will be very disappointed in Ralston.  As I say every time he is a big ol’ Lefty, but he always played it straight when it came to running the #s and analyzing data.  It doesn’t appear he did so in this instance.  As a matter of fact, he just tweeted out the 2008 Rep # was 5,733 which means this year they had a 67% jump in early voting.  That is huge. The gross increase in votes is 8,104. 3855 comes from the GOP and if we hold Other steady at 15.7% as a control their increase is 1287.  That leaves only 2962 of the increase for Democrats.  So the GOP picked up approximately 900 votes versus 2008 on Day 1 of early voting in a state with possible the least effective local party in the nation.

Now my #s are estimates based on holding “other” steady from 2008, but in that instance, we get the following for 2008 Day 1 #s:

  • Dem 61.4% — 15,426 votes
  • Rep 22.8% — 5733 votes
  • None/Oth 15.7% — 3950 votes

A 38 point spread in 2008 is now a 26 point gap in 2012.  That is a big deal if these #s prove close to correct.  Romney won’t win Clark but he needs to “mind the gap” which at least on Day 1 is exactly what he is doing. Great news for the GOP and Ralston is doing the dance of joy on behalf of the Democrats? I don’t know what is going on with him these day but he’s been unusually petty and partisan the last couple of weeks. It’s very unbecoming.  As someone who respects his work, I’m disappointed he put out clearly wrong information when he had every reason to know it wasn’t so.  Fool me once, shame on you …

Carson County: 1,109 votes

  • Dem 35.3%
  • Rep 49.1%
  • None/Oth 15.5%

Douglas County: 3,037 votes

  • Dem 27.7%
  • Rep 57.2%
  • None/Oth 15.1%

19 Comments

  1. kyle
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 1:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    Nevada must be full of idiots!! To elect Harry Reid is a national disgrace. Similar to having Biden as our #2 in charge! 2 Buffoons!!!

  2. Teapartypaul
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 1:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    That link about ohio is great! We have to remember Nevada GOP was takin over by Paul boys and the GOP has had to work and build a second entity. Anyone have any info if the Paul bots in Nevada are assisting at all?

    • EpiphoneKnight
      Posted October 21, 2012 at 2:47 am | Permalink | Reply

      How did they take it over? And why are they always sabotaging everything?

  3. Paul8148
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 2:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    Dems was up by 40% after day one in Clark co in turnout

  4. Paul8148
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 2:51 am | Permalink | Reply

    we see. If I remember correctly in 2010 repulbicans gain ground every day in clark county on the dems from a % standpoint.

  5. Paul8148
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 2:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    Oh. The Douglas county number includes mail in ballots, the number for earlying voting today was 1663 up from 1174 from 2008 or about 28% increasing, Washoe is up close to 33% in terms of turnout, Clark up 25% just about. Carson City is even (really down 90 votes or so) from 2008 so far.

  6. Paul8148
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 3:15 am | Permalink | Reply

    Below is the day by day of Clark county in 2008. As you can see the Dems peak on day 1 and did not match those match or supress the day number 1 to the end. Repubilcans meanwhile was above the day 1 number every single day but day 2.

    10/18/2008 25100
    DEM 15618
    REP 5733
    Group1 3749
    10/19/2008 20560
    DEM 11876
    REP 5376
    Group1 3308
    10/20/2008 23267
    DEM 13088
    REP 6429
    Group1 3750
    10/21/2008 21638
    DEM 11943
    REP 6127
    Group1 3568
    10/22/2008 22606
    DEM 12259
    REP 6567
    Group1 3780
    10/23/2008 23177
    DEM 12453
    REP 6970
    Group1 3754
    10/24/2008 23618
    DEM 12211
    REP 7476
    Group1 3931
    10/25/2008 26845
    DEM 14134
    REP 8270
    Group1 4441
    10/26/2008 24331
    DEM 12799
    REP 7404
    Group1 4128
    10/27/2008 30679
    DEM 15058
    REP 10209
    Group1 5412
    10/28/2008 31948
    DEM 15370
    REP 10629
    Group1 5949
    10/29/2008 35348
    DEM 16761
    REP 12006
    Group1 6581
    10/30/2008 38351
    DEM 18494
    REP 12573
    Group1 7284
    10/31/2008 44452
    DEM 21291
    REP 14499
    Group1 8662
    11/4/2008 261329
    DEM 109936
    REP 98152
    Group1 53823

    • Posted October 21, 2012 at 8:49 am | Permalink | Reply

      Great work. Is there an official link for those #s? I’d like to use them in a post but link to a source. Thnaks

  7. jvnvch
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 7:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney only needs to flip 6.25% of the vote from D to R in order to win Nevada, which McCain lost by 12.49% in 2008. I think he will probably flip those votes and win that state. Here is a list of states and two congressional districts McCain lost by less than he lost Nevada, showing how small a flip is needed in each:

    North Carolina -0.33% (flip needed 0.17%)

    Indiana -1.03 (0.52)

    Nebraska 2nd District -1.19 (0.6)

    Florida -2.82 (1.42)

    Ohio -4.59 (2.3)

    Virginia -6.30 (3.16)

    Colorado -8.95 (4.48)

    Iowa -9.53 (4.77)

    New Hampshire -9.61 (4.81)

    Minnesota -10.24 (5.13)

    Pennsylvania -10.35 (5.18)

    Maine 2nd District -11.25 (5.63)

    I don’t think it’s that great a task to win all of them It’s certainly not that great a task to win most of them.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 21, 2012 at 9:35 am | Permalink | Reply

      5%

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 21, 2012 at 9:43 am | Permalink

        A 5% flip in all those states would definitely do the job in the Electoral College, with a little room to spare.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 10:35 am | Permalink | Reply

    63-26 was the newspaper margin for Obama in ’18.
    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/2012_newspaper_endorsements.php

    6-5 Obama till today, and Tampa, Pitts, and FW, Romney has a 8-5 lead.

    My guess is a lot of the papers that came out for Obama last time sit on the sidelines this round.

    • Posted October 21, 2012 at 12:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am assuming that the NY Post will go with Romney and the NYT for Obama; The NY Daily News may go with Obama, but Zuckerman may write an separate piece, who knows?

  9. Posted October 21, 2012 at 11:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think it’s going to be interesting what happens in the next debate; at the moment I think that Obama is in the lead to take Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (check my map here: tommygilchrist.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/obamas-electoral-path-to-victory) but that the ones to watch are North Carolina and Virginia. I expect them to fall into the Romney column but the polls between now and the next debate may well indicate some change.

    Romney must carry Florida to win an electoral college victory (with Ohio and Pennsylvania trending Democratic in recent polls: http://goo.gl/zCeDD) but for Obama it is at best a ‘nice-to-have’ given his multiple other routes back to the White House (Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin) but its 29 votes are attractive to both camps.

    • WillBest
      Posted October 21, 2012 at 11:52 am | Permalink | Reply

      Its far more likely Romney takes PA than loses FL at this point. There would need to be an epic gaffe for him to lose FL.

      VA and CO are leans Rom. OH, IA, NH are true tossups. NV and WI lean Obama.

      • Posted October 21, 2012 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

        I was going by this New York Times article: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/20/oct-19-after-romney-gains-should-obama-concede-florida/

        “There is an interesting counterpart to Florida in the form of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is another state in which Mr. Romney seems to have made above-average gains since the Denver debate. Still, the FiveThirtyEight forecast, and the consensus of polls in the state, put Mr. Obama about four points ahead there. Mr. Obama is more likely to win Florida than Mr. Romney is to win Pennsylvania.”

    • Posted October 21, 2012 at 12:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I disagree about Ohio, you might be new to this blog. OH is probably going Romney.

      • Posted October 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

        Fair enough; just my thoughts at the moment. I’m going to readdress my predictions after the third debate.

  10. bsmith
    Posted October 21, 2012 at 1:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Seriously, it is shame on you. It is a total embarrassment that you are making John Ralston out as anything but what he is, a democratic hack. Maybe when it doesn’t matter he can afford to be impartial, but in close election like this his true colors will come out.

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