No Reason to Blog SurveyUSA Poll of Florida Showing Obama Up +1

There are so many awful things about the poll make-up, it essentially verifies that Florida is quickly becoming out of reach for Obama.

The #s

  • The poll shows Obama leading 47 to 46 with 5% Undecided — still under 50%
  • 5% are undecided which if 2/3 break for the challenger is really 48.7 Obama versus 49.3 Romney  but it gets MUCH worse for Obama below

Demographics

  • The poll’s racial make-up is incredible:  55% White, 23% Hispanics/Cuban, 14% Black, 8% Asian
  • In 2008 the racial make-up at the ballot box in Florida was: 71% White, 14% Hispanic, 13% Black, 1% Asian
  • Far too few Whites who break for Romney 51 – 42, far too many Hispanics which break for Obama 52 to 44, and too many Asians who break for Romney 46 to 39. And Blacks only support Obama 84 to 14, well below 2008

Party ID

  • The party ID is D +9 ( Dem 43, Rep 34, Ind 23)
  • In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29)
  • In 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23)
  • Independents down 6 and Democrats up 6 from 2008. All those Independents rushing into the arms of the Democrats, right?  Just like we are seeing NO WHERE in the county

Conclusion

  • Obama still isn’t close to 50% with 17 days left.  Horrible for an incumbent
  • The survey has a demographic make-up with 0% chance of showing up on election day
  • The turnout models a Democrat advantage of 9 percentage points, 3x greater than the 2008 turnout. Unrealistic by any measure
  • Despite each of these overwhelming and fantastical Democrat skewing, with Undecideds factored in Obama is still losing 48.7 to 49.3
  • This poll with Obama leading may be the worst Florida news I’ve seen for Obama this cycle … Time to move on to Pennsylvania (and Minnesota?)

13 Comments

  1. housebroken dad
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 9:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    All of us have seen some really ridiculous polls this cycle but this one might take the cake. I can’t remember one that used a turnout of 3x O’s favor from 4 years ago. But, they will be the ones that will look like fools in time. Florida is done. Glad to have those 29 EV’s in our stable.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 9:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    I am beginning to think that Romney may take the national Asian vote. I was in Korean/China town in Northern Virginia and was really shocked at all the Romney signs in the storefronts.

  3. No Tribe
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 9:26 am | Permalink | Reply

    Well, there’s a Zogby/Newsmax poll out there some where showing Obama up by 6% in Florida this week. Isn’t that the most bizzare partnership you’ve ever seen? Who would have imagined that Newsmax would be sponsoring all these wild pro-Obama internet based polls, haha.

  4. Medicine Man
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 9:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    I have a felling you won’t see Zogby’s contract renewed with Newsmax after this election.

  5. Posted October 20, 2012 at 9:49 am | Permalink | Reply

    One note about the SurveyUSA poll. When reweighted it does fall in line with other polling. Sometimes people ask how can two polls on the same day give such different results. the 10/20 FL polls are a good example of this. You have three polls which have the following regarding party ID: D/R% even, D+1% and D+9%. That’s right, one polling firm weights dems and repubs even in turnout and another sees dems +9% in turnout. This is why a RCP average ends up just being a bad average. Re-weighting the polls as we do puts them all on common ground for scenario analysis. The SurveyUSA poll ends up being a very favorable poll for Romney once the bias is removed. You can see how it moves the poll back in line with the Fox News poll when re-weighted. So two polls with very different headlines of who is winning actually confirm the same thing once re-weighted.

    http://insidepolling.com/battleground_states/florida

  6. allthingsgeography1
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 9:50 am | Permalink | Reply

    Definitely high on the scale of crappy polls. Unfortunately for my guy, Florida is a dead end for Obama. Plain and simple. I’m sure he knows it no matter what the crap polls say. Really, the whole South is going to be solid red, regardless of an Obama victory or loss nationally.

    • jeff
      Posted October 20, 2012 at 10:03 am | Permalink | Reply

      Still playimg the propaganda game this late in the game. I thought by now these pro Obama pollsters would start using realistic samples

  7. jvnvch
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 10:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    Some of these polling outfits are simply an embarrassment to the business. In all the years I’ve been following presidential polling with great interest, which happens to be since 1980, this is the worst year by far for obviously biased polling on a wide scale.

    • jeff
      Posted October 20, 2012 at 10:05 am | Permalink | Reply

      Clear sign of desperation. They want to give despirited Dems any sign of hope even if its false hope.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 20, 2012 at 10:12 am | Permalink

        They’re taking one for the team, I suppose. Professional suicide for the worst of them, if there’s any justice.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 10:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t really understand RCP’s filtering of the polls. There seems to be no logic to it that I can tell. Even they know it is off when Beven is talking about median and means and how he doesn’t believe its correct…

    TPM puts them all in, regardless. TPM averages show terrible results for Obama. Anything under 48% at this point is bad for an incumbent:

    North Carolina 46.5
    Florida 46.7
    Ohio 46.8
    New Hampshire 46.8
    Colorado 47.5
    Virginia 47.8
    —————————————— Romney 279 – 359 Obama
    Pennsylvania 48.4
    Iowa 49
    Nevada 49.5
    Michigan 48.9
    Minnesota 50
    Wisconsin 50.6

    If I were to call the election today, this is what I would predict.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 20, 2012 at 10:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      Thats 259 for Obama.

  9. paul
    Posted February 1, 2013 at 12:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    well, all poll predictions are history now. Word a poll question appropriately and i think you can have a poll that can almost
    accurately predict.

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] this morning the comical SurveyUSA poll of Florida found a 16 percentage point drop in actual White votes (a Romney demo) yet Obama was only up 1%. […]

  2. […] dream scenario where White people en masses don’t vote. This is almost as bad at that SurveyUSA poll. Here the poll’s racial make-up is incredible: 63% White, 20% Hispanics/Cuban, 13% Black, 1% […]

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