Romney +3 in Virginia (post-debate) — Rasmussen

The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Mitt Romney with a slight lead over President Obama in Virginia, 50 to 47.  Romney leads among Independents by 4-points and kisses the important 50% threshold:

Per Rasmussen:

Mitt Romney has now hit the 50% mark in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters, taken two nights after the second presidential debate, shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on October 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 50
Other
Undecided 2

21 Comments

  1. Todd
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:03 am | Permalink | Reply

    Any truth to the rumor that PPP has a poll coming out today showing Romney leading in Ohio?

    • damien
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      after that piece of stuff they put out last weekend from ohio….i doubt it

    • housebroken dad
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      That would be shocking.
      The only thing I’ve read is that they stated on twitter their result will be “much better for Romney” than the Marist/NBC poll yesterday.

    • Patrick
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:00 am | Permalink | Reply

      Looks like they said that about Iowa not Ohio unless I missed another similar tweet. “PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
      Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight”

    • Pete
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:25 am | Permalink | Reply

      I could be wrong, but at this late stage I think Ohio is likely the LAST place PPP would be willing to show Romney in the lead .

  2. Southerner X
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink | Reply

    Great sign this late in the game. Peaking at the perfect time.

  3. jvnvch
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:27 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think when Suffolk pulled out of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia it was safe to assume they were turning red this year.

    • Todd
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:30 am | Permalink | Reply

      Very true. That move weeks ago has made Suffolk look exceptionally good.

  4. Eric
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:29 am | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen has been a little more conservative that other pollsters since they weight their polls by party ID. This poll is probably about right though.

    Virginia has been trending Democratic for 25 years.

    here’s the trendline for Virginia…

    1988: 12.8% more Republican
    I skipped 1992 and 1996 because of distortions by Perot
    2000: 8.6% more Republican
    2004: 5.7% more Republican
    2008: 1.0% more Republican

    It’ll probably be right around the national average in 2012.

    A 3% lead in Virginia is indicative of about a 3% lead nationally.

  5. Big Mac
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney probably leads nationally about 50 to 47, i think Rasumssen overstates democrats nationally by 3.

  6. MassLiberty
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    Do you know if polling companies like Rasmussen say where they are from. It’s been my theory for a while that a few % of Dems are saying they are Reps to throw them off.

    • aj
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 10:57 am | Permalink | Reply

      Why would they do that?

      • MassLiberty
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:25 am | Permalink

        To use up the quota for Republican. It’s a two-fer. One vote for Obama, one used up quota toward the Rep sample. My question is: for those who may have received a call is do they say the outfit they are calling from?

  7. stephanie
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    The Rasmussen national poll had them tied at 48, does that mean O got a bounce from 2nd debate?

    • jeff
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      I think hes understating his lead by a couple of points.

    • housebroken dad
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:15 am | Permalink | Reply

      It doesn’t appear that way. Ras indicated in his write-up that Romney has polled ahead of O each of the days since the debate. A good polling day for R must have dropped off for him to slip a point. Or it could be rounding and we are talking tenths of a point.

      • Posted October 19, 2012 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

        One would tend to think that Ras had Romney up 2 the day after the debate, up 1 with one day of post debate and now tied with 2 of 3 days of post debate. I wouldn’t be surprised for tomorrow to show Obama up 1. Tehn slowly return to tied going into Monday.

    • Pete
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:18 am | Permalink | Reply

      Rasmussen has not updated his party ID’s yet. He’s still using a slightly Dem heavy ID model.

      • stephanie
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:30 am | Permalink

        RASMUSSEN uses D+5 to weigh their polls. Does anybody know what the party spit was for Gallup poll yesterday showing Romney ahead by 7?

    • Medicine Men
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 11:45 am | Permalink | Reply

      I believe some of the soft Obama support R got from the first debate may have drifted back the last couple days. I wouldn’t be surprised if after a week Gallup was back to R + 3 or so.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 12:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama has a new abortion ad, called Seen, only playing in Virginia. They have lost women here.

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