Romney +3 in Florida — Fox News

Fox News has another poll showing daylight between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in Florida.  Romney enjoys a 3-point lead in this latest survey, 48 to 45. Romney does a better job consolidating his base garnering 92% of the Republican vote and 7% of the Democrat vote.  Obama garners 88% of the Democrat vote and 4% of the Republican vote. Independents favor Romney by 6%, 46 to 40. Romney has closed the gender gap trailing Obama by only 1-point 46 to 47 while maintaining an 8-point lead among men at 51 to 43. Obama’s support among White voters remains low at 35% and we find another poll where Mitt Romney shows great gains with Florida non-Whites (not just Hispanics) and leads Obama 48 to 45 — a real shocker there.

The party ID is D +1 (Dem 40, Rep 39, Ind 19). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). Again probably low on Independents and a shade towards the Democrats but reasonable versus many other polling outfits.  More good news for Team Romney in the Sunshine State.

The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers October 17-18, 2012, among a random sample of 1,215 Florida registered voters (RV). A subsample of 1,130 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ± 3 percentage points.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 6

9 Comments

  1. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 7:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wasserman Shultz on Erin Burnett(CNN) minutes ago, “Florida has gone with every incumbent president since 1984” – Erin Burnett “Alot of people ave given you credit for the ground game”

    Isn’t the DNC broke? I know the answer lol

    Wasserman Shultz uses “Romnesia”…didn’t mention Big Bird or Binders!

    Wasserman Schultz then says “On the Orlando Sentinel…focus tax policy on millionaires and billionaires”

    No answer to the question of papers around the country who endorsed Obama now endorsing Romney.

    Erin Burnett “Washington Post today said Romneys plan for defense was much better than Barack Obamas”

    Wasserman Schultz….no answer to question.

    Thank you, i hope i have informed all of what i just saw on CNN.

  2. Posted October 19, 2012 at 7:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    that first comment I hope comes back to bite them on Nov 6…

  3. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 7:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    DO NOT BECOME COMPLACENT! According to Nate Silver, “Still, if the national polls tell a more equivocal tale than the Gallup poll alone would imply, it’s really in the state polls where Mr. Obama’s strength lies — as has largely been the case all year. Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College improved to 70.4 percent on Thursday from 65.7 percent on Wednesday, according to the forecast.”

    GET OUT THE MESSAGE AND VOTE IN: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada.

    DO NOT BECOME COMPLACENT… Now is the time to double down on our efforts.

    • TeaPartyPaul
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Amen…we have to work harder now than ever. I am making calls, have donated hundreds and will continue to do so from here in Arkansas.

    • damien
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      of course when u have nbc/marist and others skewing the pool of course his numbers go up

  4. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith should run something on this…

    ““While we continue to put money into our ground game and fully fund our absentee ballot, early vote and Election Day GOTV efforts in all our battleground states” – RNC Chair Reince Priebus

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82644.html#ixzz29nFgYBm5

    DNC – $4.6 Million In the Bank COH
    RNC – $83 Million in the bank COH

    WOW…Michael Steele…you will forever go into the duldrums of…”The Worse RNC Head in the history of my lifetime”

  5. No Tribe
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 7:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    Florida average of (not including internet polls) Romney:

    2.5% RCP
    3.1% TPM
    2.5% HuffPo

    Pretty big development. I don’t think the Obama team saw this coming.

    btw, NH is now leaning Romney.

  6. No Tribe
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 7:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    A lot of noise is made about Intrade, but I’ve found a US based betting futures model:
    http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=exotic

    Showing a 281-257 Obama lead right now.

    Most likely to flip from Obama in order:

    Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada

  7. No Tribe
    Posted October 20, 2012 at 9:07 am | Permalink | Reply

    Kids vote: Just judging by the ’08 lead compared to the 53-46 actual result, Romney is in good shape, predicting a 51-47 Romney victory.

    Obama won this year’s vote with 51% to Romney 45% and 4% Other.
    http://magazines.scholastic.com/Election-2012/Vote

    In 2008, Obama won with 57% to 39% for McCain.
    http://www.scholastic.com/browse/article.jsp?id=3750501

    Obama wins all the swing states, but Virginia. Obama takes Arizona and South Carolina (big demographic changes there happening & in Georgia/Texas which Romney takes by 1%). A 354-184 EV landslide.

    Underscores the difference $40M of ads does to the child’s parents. In MO and IN, both states went McCain by 2-3% in ’08, both go Romney by 15-19% in ’12.

    Conversely, Ohio went 51-47% Obama in ’08 and is 50-43-7% Obama in ’12. Interesting that Ohio has such a high Other vote (highest in country)– where highly saturated ads result in parent differentials that affect children not wanting to take sides???

    Lopsided states, greater than 65% are California, Vermont and Nevada for D’s, Alaska, West Virginia, and Utah for R’s. Utah is highest topping at 72% Boy do WV’s ever hate Obama– and a former Kennedy to Dukakis state!

    New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota are all very close, tied or within 3%.

    Pennsylvania, Michigan, are both 9% spreads for Obama.

    Suggests a steep drop off for whites voting for Obama. PPP has noted this in their recent midwest polls, following first debate. Could be as low as 35-38% in the midwest.

    One of the things that I really hope Romney will be able to do is transition the Republican party to seriously make inroads outside the white voter. It’s not a good indication for our future to have such a wide split happening. Actually, the biggest thing that Romney could do is rid the government of the faulty idea of race altogether, starting with the Census.

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