Romney +1 In Florida (post-debate) — CNN/ORC International

CNN/ORC International just released a poll in Florida showing Mitt Romney with a  1-point lead 49 to 48. This is a 5-point swing from their late August poll showing President Obama with a 4-point lead 50 to 46.Obama’s support among Whites is 35% and Non-Whites 74% — neither are good levels for him. The gender gap has effectively collapsed with Obama leading by +2 with women (49-47) while Romney leads +4 with  men (50-46). Both candidates have solid locks on their base and Independents split exactly even at 46 a piece.

The party ID is dead even (Dem 32, Rep 32, Ind 36). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).  Funny how polls splitting the difference between the last two elections (my preferred method) don’t show crazy Obama leads.  I wonder why that is? (not really)

In Florida, interviews with 1,030 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on October 17-18, 2012. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Florida sample also includes 922 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points) and 681 interviews among likely voters (plus or minus 4 percentage points). In Florida, 777 interviews were conducted among landline respondents and 253 interviews among cell phone respondents.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 49
Other 1
Undecided 1

12 Comments

  1. JGS
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Internal polls must show much bigger lead for Romney. Obama is acting as if he has written off FL.

    • jeff
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It will be a blowout in FL. I think it may be the same in VA.

  2. Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    36 percent Ind….seems a way bit high, i would have gone 35-35-30

    • Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think Independents are going to be surprisingly high in every state. It shows up in a lot of anecdotal information out there but is tough to quantify for a party ID.

      • Posted October 19, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

        the accepted wisdom is Republicans sick of the right wing party not wanting to identify with the party…..but how much of them could/can be democrats who want cover when they vote against Obama? sick of Obama, etc but want to avoid the traitor or racist label?

  3. Eric
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    A realistic turnout for Florida would be 36% Democratic, 38% Republican, 26% Independent.

  4. stephanie
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Last time i saw a O ad on tv here in duval county, florida was about a week and half ago, since then, we only have been seeing Romney ad on tv.

  5. Medicine Men
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Get ready for an onslaught of CNN polls in battleground states that will be a little tainted for a lack of a better word.

    • jeff
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They ate still using the 2008 turnput mpdel. Romneys easily ahead by 6 or 7 in FL

      • Medicine Men
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

        Kinda what I’m saying. They got them lined up. Trying to get this pre-1st debate feeling again with this over sampled D polls in swing states. This Florida poll calibrates the rest of the CNN polls soon to follow.

  6. Eric
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I actually think Romney’s ahead by about 4 in Florida right now. I expect it to be higher than that on election day, but it’s around 4 points right now.

  7. Kevin
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney got a big time endorsement from the Orlando Sun Sentinel, and the Tennessean, that’s the Nashville newspaper.
    The Sun Sentinel endorsed Obama four years ago, and the Tennessean has endorsed every Democrat for President since 1972.
    Every little bit helps.

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