CNN/ORC International just released a poll in Florida showing Mitt Romney with a 1-point lead 49 to 48. This is a 5-point swing from their late August poll showing President Obama with a 4-point lead 50 to 46.Obama’s support among Whites is 35% and Non-Whites 74% — neither are good levels for him. The gender gap has effectively collapsed with Obama leading by +2 with women (49-47) while Romney leads +4 with men (50-46). Both candidates have solid locks on their base and Independents split exactly even at 46 a piece.
The party ID is dead even (Dem 32, Rep 32, Ind 36). In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). Funny how polls splitting the difference between the last two elections (my preferred method) don’t show crazy Obama leads. I wonder why that is? (not really)
In Florida, interviews with 1,030 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on October 17-18, 2012. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Florida sample also includes 922 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points) and 681 interviews among likely voters (plus or minus 4 percentage points). In Florida, 777 interviews were conducted among landline respondents and 253 interviews among cell phone respondents.