Another interesting poll in Ohio. Fox News is showing President Obama with a 3-point lead, 46 to 43. This is down from a 7-point lead in the same poll one month ago. Obama does a better job consolidating his base garnering 89% of the Democrat vote and 7% of the Republican vote versus Mitt Romney garnering 85% of the Republican vote and 5% of the Democrat vote. Incredibly Romney leads among Independents by 24-points, 52 to 28. If Independents support Mitt Romney by anywhere near this margin, he will carry Ohio with room to spare. Most of the other metrics look clean (10-point lead for Obama among women, 4-point lead among men for Romney). Clearly the party ID of those sampled determine the lead for Obama with such a disparity among Independents. Interestingly deep in the poll a plurality of voters 45% to 35% give Governor John Kasich for the economic turnaround in Ohio.
The party ID is Dem +8 (Dem 42, Rep 34, Ind 20). This compares to 2008 of D +8 (Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30) and 2004 of R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25). A very aggressive turnout mirroring the 2008 level which increasingly is less likely as we approach election day. Additionally Independents look light based on general voter sentiment where identifications with Independents grows while the two major parties lose support. Despite the Obama lead, Team Romney should feel very good about this poll.
The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers October 17-18, 2012, among a random sample of 1,210 Ohio registered voters (RV). A subsample of 1,131 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ± 3 percentage points.