Obama +2 in Wisconsin — Rasmussen

Another Battleground State poll from Rasmussen Reports this time in Wisconsin showing President Obama leading by 2-points, 50 to 48 over Mitt Romney. Obama leads among Independents by a whopping 11-points and touches the important 50% threshold:

Wisconsin remains a two-point race following Tuesday night’s presidential debate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds President Obama with 50% support, while Mitt Romney earns 48% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race. This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama defeated Republican John McCain 56% to 42% in Wisconsin in 2008. The president posted a similar 51% to 49% lead in the state earlier this month. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%. Ninety-seven percent (97%) of likely Wisconsin voters say they are certain to vote, and the president leads 50% to 48% among this group. Wisconsin allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, it’s Romney 54%, Obama 43%. Of those who have yet to vote, 90% say they’ve already decided whom they will support. Obama leads 50% to 49% among these voters. Both candidates draw more than 90% support from voters in their respective parties in Wisconsin. The president leads by 11 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided

25 Comments

  1. housebroken dad
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Ras has been fairly consistant with WI polling of late, showing similar leads for O among Indys. Just not sure I’m buying an 11 point edge though. I think O is probably up among Indys as they tend to lean left here but I’m just thinking 11 is too much. Interesting that among those who have already voted, R leads 54 to 43.

  2. John Fisher
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting comment on early voting Romney up 54 – 43. Can anyone share a link on WI early voting stats?

    • housebroken dad
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I haven’t been able to find a link for results. They may not make them available to the public since there is no party ID.

    • valleyforge
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Probably a very small subsample so don’t give it much credence.

      Not that the internals makes much sense. Early voters 54-43 Romney, 90% of those who haven’t voted are decided and go 50-49 Obama. Which means 10% of those who haven’t voted are undecided. But the topline shows zero are undecided??

      Assuming the “non-decided” were pushed, it would still be easier to get to the toplines if you assume the early vote figure is reversed: Obama 54-43. Could be a typo.

  3. allthingsgeography1
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m trying to remember…aren’t independents in Wisconsin a sort of different bunch (they tend to support Scott Walker, but also Obama at the same time)? Election night should definitely be interesting to watch in Wisconsin with such a unusual electorate. It’s certainly in play, that’s for sure.

    By the way, I am an Obama supporter, but I found this page sort of by accident looking for political blogs and enjoy hearing a different perspective on the race that’s outside the left-partisan echo chamber (I know, a left winger that’s actually not a troll hehe). Enjoy the blog and I find your analyses very well thought out, even if we disagree on politics. Keep up the good work.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Welcome. We enjoy intellectually honest friends from the other side. I can only speak for myself, but as long as your input is devoid of talking points, you will find we are a pretty friendly bunch that aren’t afraid of the truth.

      • allthingsgeography1
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

        Cool 🙂 Yeah, I’m a pretty much a no nonsense, no talking points kinda guy. So glad to hear that.

    • TeaPartyPaul
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 3:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Glad to have you allthingsgeography…i am a staunch conservative that reads daily kos, media matters and all the left blogs…it is very informative to open your mind to both sides. Keith does a “Wonderful!” job with this blog here, i have yet to find a more insightful, ear to the pavement battleground gotv/poll blog on the internet this election cycle.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 3:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      We just like telling the truth here. Shocking, haha. This is going to be a very intense 2 weeks of campaigning down to the wire.

      Wisconsin is a wild card state. Yes, the polls during Walker winning the recall found about 10% that flipped to Obama. I don’t know that they were Independents more, seems like I recall it being more proportionate. Anyway, I’m of two minds about Wisconsin. On the one hand, it seems destined to be the state that it all comes down too. I think they count their ballots slowly too, so I would bet, if we have overtime, that it’s one of the states involved.

      On the other hand, Obama seems to do better in this state than he does pretty much in any other, in exceeding his final poll number. He did it against Clinton, and he did it against McCain. Final poll was 11% lead and result was 14% A 3.9% gap is about as good as he did in the larger group of competitive states in 2008.

      I wouldn’t discount the work that outside money is doing in WI, or the wins they’ve had, and the fact that the Obama campaign pretty much ignored the state until just recently.

    • Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Missouri, my state, is the same way. We will elect Romney, A super majority republican state legislature, probably the majority of statewide offices but then vote in a Democrat Senator and Governor

  4. damien
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    54-43 but loses cause election day turnout will save obama?

    • Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Obama leads 50-49 on those who have not voted yet….So depending on how many early votes there are compared to election votes there will be. Obama may have to win 51-51.5% in order to counter that large of an early voting lead. Just a thought.

  5. Posted October 19, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama and Romney tied in Wisconsin http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/presidential-senate-races-dead-heats-in-wisconsin/article_2f8f5208-18e0-11e2-919a-0019bb2963f4.html?comment_form=true

  6. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 3:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here goes a Great map of “tea Party Volunteers” in Wisconsin with a map and graphic included…

    http://www.irehr.org/issue-areas/tea-party-nationalism/tea-party-news-and-analysis/item/418-the-tea-party-impact-in-wisconsin

    The graphic and map above shows active volunteers, donors, memberships and in what tea party organization they are apart of. We always have to remember the ABC Exit Poll that came out a few hours before the recall polls closed in Wisconsin saying it was a 50-50 race!

  7. jvnvch
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “Wisconsin remains a two-point race following Tuesday night’s presidential debate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds President Obama with 50% support, while Mitt Romney earns 48% of the vote.”

    “Wisconsin allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, it’s Romney 54%, Obama 43%. Of those who have yet to vote, 90% say they’ve already decided whom they will support. Obama leads 50% to 49% among these voters.”

    What? How does that come out to 50-48 Obama?

    • Eric
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The remaining 10% who plan on voting must be leaning strongly towards Obama. That’s about the only thing that can explain it. Wisconsin is going to come down to how many young people show up to vote for Obama. Older people will vote. The under 30 crowd leans strongly to Obama. The 30-45 crowd leans strongly to Romney. Both of those groups didn’t show up in the Wisconsin recall election, while those over 45 showed up in their usual numbers.

      Note where Obama’s visit have been. A lot are at college campuses. He’s also going on the Daily Show and Letterman. He needs the young people to show up and vote or he’ll be blown out.

      Wisconsin (and Minnesota) have been trending Republicans for a while now as the younger generations are identifying more with the Republican Party than Democrats. Older people still vote like they always have, but the trends among the young are gradually replacing them. The trend was temporarily reversed in 2008 when a lot of young people were excited about Obama and turned off by McCain. The trend should resume this year, which is why Minnesota should be a lot closer than the 10 point margin Survey USA is showing. That poll has way too many Democrats. The wouldn’t be running radio ads in Minnesota if it was really 10 points.

      • jeff
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

        Why is Ras still using a D+3-4 model in his polling? Is it realistic that it will be like that this year?

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

        It seems very odd to me that those who have voted favored Romney by eleven, and 90% of those who have yet to vote and have made up their minds favor President Obama by only one, but the 10% who haven’t made up their minds favor the president strongly enough to make the final result 50-48 Obama. It seems that would be extremely unlikely.

      • Medicine Men
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

        He is D+5. I don’t know. Maybe as he gets a closer feel after the last debate, I have a feeling he may tighten it up a bit. If you go on the IBD site, they claim to be more accurate then Rassmussen in ’08. If this is the case, the better tighten it up pretty quick.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

        Would people stop saying Rasmussen uses a D+3 or a D+5. He weights state polls differently. This poll is R+3, which seems very generous to Romney.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

        Sorry..D+5 is his National. Should have specified.

  8. SR
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just heard on twitter that Paul Ryan is visiting W. Pennsylvania. Keith, I hope someone from the campaign is reading your Minnesota write-up. The Univ of Colorado model actually predicts RR will win Penn and Minnesota, but lose Nevada and Michigan.

    • Eric
      Posted October 19, 2012 at 4:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I can see that logic. Michigan is to the left of Pennsylvania. We have very little reliable polling out of Minnesota. I think Michigan and Minnesota will be fairly close to each other. Nevada has been trending Democrat for a while. It leans Democrat at the national level. We shouldn’t be relying on Nevada to put us over the top. It’s one of those states that may go Romney’s way, but he’ll have already won the election elsewhere before that happens.

      • valleyforge
        Posted October 19, 2012 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

        The argument against Michigan: it was 6% more Democratic than Minnesota in 2008. Auto bailout makes it inelastic, and it’s been hardened against Romney with more ads and visits than Minnesota. if things shift at the end they will shift more readily in Minnesota than Michigan.

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