Obama +6 in Michigan — EPIC-MRA

Despite the rapid tightening of polls with Mitt Romney leading in many Battlegrounds, Michigan remains a tough state for the native born candidate.  Well respected EPIC-MRA conducted a poll for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and found President Obama holding on to a  6-point lead 52 to 46:

 President Barack Obama’s improved performance in Tuesday’s debate with Republican rival Mitt Romney appears to have boosted him to a wider lead among likely Michigan voters, a Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) poll shows. When counting undecided voters leaning toward either candidate, Obama, the Democrat, held a 52%-46% edge on Romney in an automated poll of 800 likely Michigan voters on Wednesday, a day after the men met in New York for the second of three debates.

Almost half — 46% — thought Obama won the most recent debate, compared to 35% who thought Romney won. Eleven percent called the debate a tie and 8% were undecided. A poll after the first debate showed voters overwhelmingly gave Romney the advantage. “I think the debate had a role” in Obama’s lead, said Bernie Porn, pollster for EPIC-MRA of Lansing, which conducted the survey for the Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Channel 7). “You look at people who watched the debate, they’re voting for Obama more than the state as a whole is. Only among people who didn’t watch the debate are they tied.” The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Taken with other recent polls, the EPIC-MRA survey suggests that Obama is once again solidifying a lead in Michigan after seeing a spike in support for Romney following the first debate on Oct. 3 in Denver.


  1. eatdust11
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Michigan would definitely be a tougher get for Romney than PA… but Ohio should still be first on Romney’s priority list!

  2. jeff
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Its becoming evudent that MI just isnt in the cards for Romney for whatever reason. PA looks alot more promising. I fully expect the Romney campaign to commit full resources there as they withdraw from NC.

  3. stephanie
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wondering what the party split was for this poll. I just read an article on breitbart.com by Mike Flynn citing another Michigan poll showing o up by 3 points.

  4. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 9:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    EPIC-MRA 10/17 – 10/17 800 LV 3.5 52 46 Obama +6
    Rasmussen Reports 10/11 – 10/11 500 LV 4.5 52 45 Obama +7
    LE&A/Denno Research 10/9 – 10/10 600 LV 4.0 44 41 Obama +3
    Detroit News 10/6 – 10/8 600 LV 4.0 49 42 Obama +7

    Last Four RCP Michigan polls

  5. Evan3457
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 9:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    No internals, so I’m not buying it. Not yet, anyway.

  6. sth88
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 9:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Michigan might be winnable, but Pennsylvania is probably a better gamble if Romney is going to spend some time/resources on an unneeded state. PA also has a competitive Senate race, which MI doesn’t have, so I think it would be good for Mitt to stop by PA for at least one high-profile rally before Election Day.

  7. Posted October 18, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Orlando Sentinel endorses Romney http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/opinion/os-ed-endorsement-president-mitt-romney-101912-20121018,0,6927962.story

  8. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 11:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well other polls have had it 3-4pts so 6% isn’t outside margin of error.

  9. Posted October 19, 2012 at 8:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    This poll has been noted, but without solid internals we are not including it in our models as of now. Encouraging and consistent for Romney, but we can’t commit just yet to it. This poll probably reflects 2010 type turnout level. And there is nothing to say that can’t be repeated, but we’d probably feel better about this poll if we saw a few others inch our way there rather than taking a “giant leap for mankind” all at once.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: