Obama +1 in Ohio (post-debate) — Rasmussen

The first post-debate poll comes to us from Rasmussen Reports.  Ohio remains a dog fight with President Obama clinging to a 1-point lead, 49 to 48:

The second presidential debate doesn’t appear to have made a difference in Rasmussen Reports’ first post-debate look at the race in Ohio. It’s still a toss-up. The latest telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken last night, shows President Obama with 49% support to Mitt Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers another candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 2


  1. Anthony
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 10:28 am | Permalink | Reply

    Toss-ups go to the Democrats. Republicans always have to win by the margin of fraud.

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 10:55 am | Permalink | Reply

      Wrong. Romney will not lose Ohio.

      • Anthony
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 11:42 am | Permalink

        I hope you are correct.

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 11:15 am | Permalink | Reply

      Funny how it seems where ever the most “election fraud” seems to be are the Democrat stronghold precients. And the so-called republican as it is spun turns out to be DEMOCRATS letting non registered voters vote, multiple votes and allowing polls to stay open longer than they are legally allowed to.

  2. jvnvch
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 11:19 am | Permalink | Reply

    I simply find it hard to believe that Ohio will vote for the reelection of President Obama. He didn’t win Ohio by even five in 2008, which was two less than the country as a whole, and it seems clear that Romney has a national lead presently, so you would think he would be ahead in the Buckeye State. Ohio virtually always votes more Republican in presidential elections than the country as a whole.

    • Medicine Men
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 11:28 am | Permalink | Reply

      I was looking back at Rasmussen’s poll from ’08 on Ohio on November 3rd showing Obama and McCain tied at 49. I couldn’t find the party ID, but interestingly enough, he had it in the tabs that Republicans were more likely to vote than Dems by a few points. I don’t want to come across as a “select” poll truther, but it really points to the difficulty in gaging enthusiasm and turnout. I know the historic data regarding Ohio and Repubicans and the National vote, but I sure would like to see some hard data with proper crosstabs with Romney up in the next week or two to feel a bit more confident.

      • jeff
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink

        Rasmussens historical accuracy with state polls suprisongly is not that great. Hes been off by quite alot in recent elections.I just have the feeling that theres going to be a massive ground game in favor of the GOP that the polls are not detecting.

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 12:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      this is where the Nate Silvers and some of the trolls are right. The national polls by RAS and others have been nearly spot on. But the state level polls outside of true gurus like Ralston in Nevada, etc…have sometimes been way off. That is why I think it comes down to the RCP averages. UNTIL and UNLESS Romney takes the lead in the averages….he and we cannot rest and just assume the ground game will get it. To me he has to be up at least a 1/2 to a full point in any state in the average or he is in trouble. Obama’s team has a great great ground game and while enthusiasm isnt as high as 08, they dont have to have it AS high to still squeak out a win.

      • jeff
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

        Yes I agtee with one very important caveat. RCP averages have included biased polls from NBC and PPP and others with unrealistic and ridiculous oversampling of democrats by as high as D+12. Therefore you know the RCP average for OHIO is highly skewed in favor of OBAMA. I think the most realistic outcome for 2012 is an even split between Ds and Rs and even with R+2. Accordingly Romney is probably really ahead by 3 or 4. Rasmussen is assuming D+3. And Romney is trouncing Obama with the indies and should get most of the undecideds.

        split of Ds and Rs like in 2004. If thats
        the case then ROMNEY is ahead in OHIOIHIO

  3. zang
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 12:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In general, state polling is not as accurate as national polling. Not sure why.

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