I’m going to feel bad when the Marist Poll service goes out of business due to lack of reliability after this cycle’s monstrously awful polls (I won’t really). You can read my previous take-downs of the least reliable poling outfitl this cycle here, here and here.
I’m still waiting on the detailed crosstabs but based on the released info from MSNBC, today’s doozies include Iowa and Wisconsin:
President Obama leads by 9-points (which explains why he’s still campaigning heavily there) 52 to 43. Two percent are voting Other and 4% are undecided.
- 34% of those surveyed already voted which compares to 18% of Iowans who have actually voted early
- Half of actual early voters are Democrats giving rise to a massive over-sampling of Democrat early voters
Party ID is D +2 (Dem 33, Rep 31, Ind 35). This compares to 2008 of D +1 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33) and 2004 R +2 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30). A highly unlikely scenario considering every metric between voter registration, early voting proclivity and enthusiasm dramatically favors Republicans versus the 2008 comparison.
Addendum: Now they tell us …
Am more convinced than ever that weighting the early vote in these state polls is the hard part. It may overstate things
— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) October 19, 2012
@chucktodd clearly in Iowa, early vote is overstated since all who said they voted early passed thru LV screen.
— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) October 19, 2012
Ya think? Duh.
President Obama leads by 6-points 51 to 45. Only one percent are voting Other and 3% are Undecided.
The party ID was D +5 (Dem 33, Rep 28, Ind 38). This compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29) and 2004 of R +3 (Dem 35, Rep 38, Ind 27) in 2004. Again a very aggressive turnout in favor of the President comparable to his 2008 performance which seems highly unlikely,
UPDATE: Healthy reminder from Jay Cost at The Weekly Standard. Marist has a fairly bad track record of over-sampling Democrats. Immediately before the 2010 mid-terms they released a national survey claiming that among likely voters the country was split right down the middle 46 to 46 voting between the Democrats and republicans up for Congress (~60% of the way down). As history showed, the election results were quite different from what Marist was seeing. Republicans won the popular vote 52 to 45 and gaining 67 seats in the House of Representatives. As the Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone wrote that “you could argue that this is the best Republican showing ever.” Marist? Nice knowing you.