NBC/WSJ/Marist Survey CodePink in Iowa and Wisconsin, Find Obama Leading

I’m going to feel bad when the Marist Poll service goes out of business due to lack of reliability after this cycle’s monstrously awful polls (I won’t really).   You can read my previous take-downs of the least reliable poling outfitl this cycle here, here and here.

I’m still waiting on the detailed crosstabs but based on the released info from MSNBC, today’s doozies include Iowa and Wisconsin:

Iowa

President Obama leads by 9-points (which explains why he’s still campaigning heavily there) 52 to 43.  Two percent are voting Other and 4% are undecided.

  • 34% of those surveyed already voted which compares to 18% of Iowans who have actually voted early
  • Half of actual early voters are Democrats giving rise to a massive over-sampling of Democrat early voters

Party ID is D +2 (Dem 33, Rep 31, Ind 35). This compares to 2008 of D +1 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33) and 2004 R +2 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30).  A highly unlikely scenario considering every metric between voter registration, early voting proclivity and enthusiasm dramatically favors Republicans versus the 2008 comparison.

Addendum: Now they tell us …

Ya think? Duh.

Wisconsin

President Obama leads by 6-points 51 to 45.  Only one percent are voting Other and 3% are Undecided.

The party ID was D +5 (Dem 33, Rep 28, Ind 38). This compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29) and 2004 of R +3 (Dem 35, Rep 38, Ind 27) in 2004.  Again a very aggressive turnout in favor of the President comparable to his 2008 performance which seems highly unlikely,

UPDATE: Healthy reminder from Jay Cost at The Weekly Standard.  Marist has a fairly bad track record of over-sampling Democrats.  Immediately before the 2010 mid-terms they released a national survey claiming that among likely voters the country was split right down the middle 46 to 46 voting between the Democrats and republicans up for Congress (~60% of the way down). As history showed, the election results were quite different from what Marist was seeing. Republicans won the popular vote 52 to 45 and gaining 67 seats in the House of Representatives.  As the Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone wrote that “you could argue that this is the best Republican showing ever.”  Marist?  Nice knowing you.

28 Comments

  1. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wow…is all i can say…wow

  2. Brian
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Why does the WSJ sully its name by attaching it to such obvious gutter trash?

  3. No Tribe
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This needs a humor tag. Since every campaign needs a three letter slogan that sums it up, isn’t Obama’s Bain, Big Bird & Binders?

  4. Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Why would Marist go out of business for publishing dem-heavy, bias polls? First, Marist is a college, so whomever is in charge of polling for the college wont go out of business. Second, next election cycle every democrat in the country is going to hire Marist to do their public polling. Accurate polling is so 20th century. 21st century polling is all about propaganda and spin. The polling firms (especially collegiate ones that cant be touched by real-world business) which spit out the most propaganda will be the firms that thrive. Ugly reality. Damn shame that’s how it works nowadays.

    • jeff
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It is quite obvious that Marist is becoming the Biden in the polling worldn No one except for maybe Chrus Matthews and Ed Schultz takes them seriously. Theyve become a characature of themselves. I fully predict that their next Ohio poll will show Obama ahead by 15 points that will give delusional democrats the ammunition to declare the race over for Romney

    • Pete
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      “Marist is a college.”

      Yep and the people behind the poll make the MSM journalists look like Fox News panelists.

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Greymarch, I actually address that in this post: http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/08/06/reminder-about-biased-polls-gore-leads-bush-by-12-points-in-september-2000-newsweek/

    • Pete
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Jay Cost has no love for Marist:

      Jay Cost @JayCostTWS
      Marist is a generally lousy and unreliable pollster that’s been promoted wrongly to the big leagues by NBC/WSJ. Any questions?

  5. Kevin
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If it’s not the three stooges of polling, NBC/WSJ/Marist, then it’s the other three stooges of polling CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac that over samples Dems, in order to do PR work for Obama.

    • jeff
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

      A well respected and well known expert in Iowa politics just announced on Fox that the race is less than a point apart and that Romney is closimg in fast and is otherwise trending in his favor. The absentee numbers look much better for the GOP than in 2008. So dont be alarmed. Just the usual propaganda to raise the moral of despirited Dems.

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

        I’d love to see that whole segment on Youtube. I can post those videos but not the ones from Fox’s website

  6. Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    There is no realistically possible way to get O+9% with that sample balance. Not in Iowa , and probably not anywhere.

  7. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The bottom half of the Fordham Accuracy in polling 2008 election study….

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

  8. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Marist’s final 2004 poll had Kerry +1. Enough said.

  9. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here also…Iowa has been listed in Obamas “New Firewall”…”circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states”

    http://nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017?page=2

    Maybe this is apart of the “circle the wagons” strategy, not saying the poll is “rigged” here people. But when we have an outlier and no poll said Obama won the debate “convincingly” then you have to question common sense.

    • Dave Ped
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yea just after they said the new firewall is IA, WI, OH, NV these polls come out. It sucks that these get included in RCP averages because it skew’s the averages in these states. They have been circling the wagons around OH for a while now.

      • Kevin
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

        Dave I’m with you. Why in the world does Real Clear Politics keep putting up these fraud polls from NBC/WSJ/Marist, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, and PPP. They’re so blatantly rigged with over sampling of Democrats. It would be nice if Real Clear Politics would put an asterisk next to polls that over sampled Dems by three or more percentage points.

      • Dave Ped
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

        you can look at the polls in a state and see a cluster within a point or two then one of these 5-6 BO lead. Its just such a joke, and PPP they just always come out just a day after a good poll comes out for Romney to offset it.

  10. Posted October 18, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Senior Romney staffer quoted today, “I hear Pittsburgh is very nice this time of year.”

    Is Romney making a play for PA?!?! Will Romney make an appearance in PA?

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/18/romneys-rust-belt-surge-threatens-obamas-firewall/

    • Stephen
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Didn’t Romney mention Pennsylvania during the debate at the beginning?

  11. Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Yeah, this seems to be the new “thing”.

    If early voting favours Democrats, just drastically over-weight them in your sample to show Obama ahead!

    Fool proof, none of us ignorant wingnuts will ever spot that…..oh wait

  12. John
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Regarding Iowa, didn’t Brent Baier of Fox News just have someone on from the Des Moines Register and said the race was neck and neck?

  13. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    an email from team Obama: “Iowa and Wisconsin could use a hand right now. The other side is hitting their airwaves hard with an onslaught of negative ads…With just 19 days left, we’re counting on you and other Illinoisans to pitch in. So come with us on a trip to Iowa or Wisconsin this weekend, where we’ll hear from local organizers and volunteers about our strategy for winning there. Then, we’ll head out into local neighborhoods to knock on doors and have one-on-one conversations with voters about what’s at stake in this election.”

    • TeaPartyPaul
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Great looking out there Whole Foods!

  14. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The last poll to have Obama up +8 or more in Iowa….YOU GUESSED IT…

    NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/16 – 9/18 898 LV 3.3 50 42 Obama +8

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_romney_vs_obama-1922.html#polls

  15. Kevin
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just as bad as the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll.

    Talk about delusional.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/18/CNN-Soledad-Obrien-Obama-Up-15-Virginia

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 9:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think that one was “with women”.

      Even that’s an exaggeration, but not as much of one.

  16. jvnvch
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 11:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Trash polling.

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] early voters. The rise of early voting seems to be skewing results in favor of Democrats which was deftly explained by Adrian Gray previously. If Democrats have a propensity to vote early and early voters are polled, more […]

  2. […] early voters. The rise of early voting seems to be skewing results in favor of Democrats which was deftly explained by Adrian Gray previously. If Democrats have a propensity to vote early and early voters are polled, more […]

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