Gallup!

I don’t blog the tracking polls but the Trippi comments made this worth a post:

55 Comments

  1. damien
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    ok…7 points….what states would be ours?….

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      damn you! jk .. At 7 you start looking at the Washington’s and Oregon’s more confidently. Illinois and New Jersey would be in the mix as well. Maybe Maine. My guess at 7% you’re seeing a 371 to 167 electoral win for Romney, almost the exact inverse of Obama’s 2008 win which I believed was Romney’s ceiling this year. Remember elections are about momentum and Romney has it right now. It swings back and forth though so expect Obama to have his day in the sun and Romney to have one more turn in the barrel before it’s all over. At least that’s how everyone should prepare.

      • damien
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

        if we win illinois..i am gonna pi** myself laughing

      • Dave Ped
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

        Here is a cool little tool called swingometer.

        http://unlikelyvoter.com/
        You may need google chrome to use it. If you put in the swing from 2008, it calculates the electoral college prediction. So a Romney 7 point win is a 14 point swing from 2008….

      • damien
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

        oh believe me im prepared….after candy at the debate i think we all know what we’re up against

      • Tom
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

        Couldn’t agree more. I’ve been telling my wife since the 1st debate that Romney will be 350+ on the electoral college. Keep up the fantastic work!

    • MikeN
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not very much actually. McCain lost 52.93-45.66, a gap of 7.27. To win by 7, let’s add 7.15% to all of McCain’s numbers.
      North Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska 2nd district, Florida, Ohio. Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Maine 2nd district,
      Nevada, and Wisconsin would be narrow wins below 50%.

      • acasilaco
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

        To go from 7 points behind to 7 points ahead would mean adding 14% to all McCain’s numbers, wouldn’t it?

      • MikeN
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

        No, that would put him at 59-41.

  2. Adam
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rush is talking about 2 of your 3 most recent posts, in order! I don’t think it’s a coincidence. Keep it up Keith!

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for the alert. Did he reference me/my blog or just the data?

      • Adam
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

        He mentioned your data one after another, BUT, he did mention you about 3 weeks ago. That’s how I found ya, I bet I’m not the only one.

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

        Adam, you’re the first to tell me this. Do you recall the context of his mention? I’m deeply flattered by the attention.

      • Adam
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

        I’ll have to look back on stories when I’m on my computer, phone right now.. I just know it was a write up about skewed polls.

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

        Thanks. I appreciate the heads-up.

      • stephanie
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

        Keith,

        That’s how i found about your website as well. I remember Rush referenced your data and website.

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

        Good to hear Stephanie. I always found it strange that the site would get hundreds of hits from people searching for some combination of “battleground watch” or “battlegroundwatch” and I could never figure out why so many people across the country would be searching consistently for those terms when I was always the top result in the search. Now it makes sense. Major people like Rush Limbaugh, who I can’t believe mentions me, are touting the site. That is just awesome to hear. Thanks for stopping by.

    • Adam
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I feel like it was “OK, let’s have some fun. NBC/Marist/WSJ polls are out and the race is OVER!”

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

        LOL. That’s funny. I actually like my over-the-top sarcastic posts the most. I just know it turns plenty of people off so I try to keep them to a minimum. Good stuff.

  3. Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The countdown to Obama’s team BLASTING Gallup and saying their internals showing them up significantly in all battlegrounds in 3…2…..1.

    Romney ahead in the RCP Electoral Count as it stands.

    Also if you give the likely Nevada, Michigan and Penn to Obama and the Likely Florida, NC, Virginia and Colorado to Romney…you are left with NH, IA, WI and OH.
    At this point if that holds Romney wins OHIO game over.
    If Obama wins Ohio he has to win either Wisconsin or the combo of IA/NH.
    If Obama wins Ohio, then Romney has to win Wisconsin and one of the other two.

    If that is the case and how the states shake out…Romney’s path to 270 is actually wider than Obama’s….he just has to win Ohio. Obama has to win at least 2 of the final four.

    • Teapartypaul
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Guys calm down. Calm down.. We have to push for volunteers and donations more than ever. Senate races also…lib yards don’t have quit in their vocabulary. Now is the time to step up. Maybe Keith A post on how to contact volunteer offices or link to Romney website how to make calls. It site is gotten uber attention last month..get out the vote

  4. Ron
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is starting to resemble Reagan’s October surge in Gallup.

  5. Kevin
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    With these new Gallup numbers, someone needs to paint Chris Matthews window sill.

    • Kevin
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      On second thought…

  6. SR
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is a great site. very thoughtful analysis. I come here first thing AM.

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks for the kinds words. I really appreciate it.

      • novahockey
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

        I refresh constantly.

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

        You’re going to make me feel guilty when I’m not at my computer 🙂

  7. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think the surge is due to Gallup’s likely voter screen. Dem enthusiasm has been cratering after the first debate. AFter their convention, Dems had almost drawn even with Republicans with respect to likelihood of voting. But Gallup’s data has shown a sharp drop-off in Dem certainty of voting over the past 2 weeks.

    Rasmussen would be showing the same trend but he is weighting according to pre-determined race/party affiliation metrics, which undercut his likely voter screen. But even his data shows a growing disparity between Dems and Repubs. From this morning’s tracking poll:

    High Interest: Dem: 75%, GOP: 83%
    Follow Daily: Dem: 44%, GOP: 58%

  8. jvnvch
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Great news, but don’t be surprised if the Romney seven point Gallup lead goes down a little tomorrow. There are likely to be some downs as well as ups on the way to the finish line. Things are looking good, but this is no time to get overconfident.

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I totally agree with jvnvch. Overconfidence is not what we want at all. Gallup will swing back toward Obama at some point in the next few days too. Keep an eye on the state by state polls in the next few days too.

    • Medicine Men
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      + 5. If he can have consistently poll 50%, (including Rasmussen ) he will be ok on the night on November 6th.

  9. Stoneule
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just wanted to say that I love this site! I too came here a couple of weeks ago along with unskewedpolls.com after they were mentioned by Rush. I have been a loyal visitor ever since, checking several times a day. Keep up the great work!!

  10. MikeN
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Read somewhere that 50% in Gallup in mid October is a 100% guarantee of victory.

  11. stephanie
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith,

    RUSH Just mentioned the Gallup poll again, he said apparently Joe Trippi sent out another tweet telling the dems not to panic, because hu dug into the internals and found out Romney is only leading in the South. My question is if that is true, Romney wont have 7 point lead, right? RUSH didn’t expand on that tweet though. I also wonder what the party split was for this poll. Your thoughts?

    • Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I saw the tweets they are talking about and it is not telling the full story which is actually why I started a blog like this. The state polling is what matters. The national polls are easier to mislead because of the reasons the critics site.

      It doesn’t mean the polls are wrong though. If we are talking about regional polling as the basis for discarding the poll the bias breaks both ways. Romney may be leading by +20 in the South but that level of support means something. If true Obama goes back to being a “regional candidate” which is how Al Gore and John Kerry lost. The critique about the South skewing the results holds little water, though. New York and California greatly skew the West and New England region for Obama. It doesn’t mean Obama is any more competitive in New Hampshire or Nevada because he leads in those regions.Again, that’s why I focus on the Battleground States.

      Finally, there is a 0% chance President Obama wins the electoral college while losing both Independents and the popular vote by anywhere near the margins in this Gallup poll.

      The Left is trying to turn lemons into lemonade by everything about this election is breaking against them whether Romney is up 7% of just 2-3%.

      • stephanie
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

        Great point! Thank you!

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

        A point and a question….1) I doubt this is a reality….my gut says Romney is up nationally by 1.5-3 points that is what my gut says

        2) the question…I have heard it both ways. Do state polls lag BEHIND national polls (ie Nationals show trends before states catch up and show it) or do National Polls lage BEHIND state polls (states show what is happen before national ones)

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

        My understanding is state polls lag national polls because state polls are done less frequently and sample sizes are often smaller so things get missed more frequently.

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

        okay that would make sense…As national polls well poll “everyone” as opposed to one state. Would make sense that Romney is moving ahead nationally but the state polls are slowly coming around to show the same.

        Funny a Romney campaign staffer told one of the news channels today when asked about where Romney would spend his last few precious days on the trail….his response “I hear Pittsburg is nice this time of year”

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

        That’s an awesome line

    • jvnvch
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The internals yesterday showed Romney up 22 in the South and down four in each of the other three areas of the country. It’s Ohio that matters most, at this point, however, and it didn’t show the numbers for any single state.

  12. MikeN
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Joe Trippi needs to look up the meaning of anomaly.

  13. Kevin
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s a few quotes I found that Joe Trippi made on his Twitter page.

    “With today’s Gallup Tracking numbers Romney 52% & Obama 45% — I do not think Gallup is an anomaly. Dems should take it seriously.”

    “I don’t believe Romney has the size lead that Gallup’s track shows. Smaller than 7pts. But Dems should treat trend & movement as real.”

    Sounds like he’s throwing caution to the wind. I’ve noticed how silent CNN and MSDNC is on the new Gallup Poll. Shocking, I know.

    • MikeN
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Aren’t CNN and USA Today part of Gallup’s poll?

      • Posted October 18, 2012 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

        yeah funny only Drudge has picked it up….No where to be seen the last couple of days on CNN or the other MSM sites. But I remember just after the covention they had every poll up saying is it time for Romney to pack it up, etc.

        IF, no carts before horses or chickens before the egg, but I am not sure what the bigger hilarious moment to watch will be….Obama conceding he has lost or watching the MSNBC commit live, ritual group suicide

  14. Ron
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If the country is evenly divided and there’s a surge in the red states, shouldn’t there be a corresponding surge for O in the blue states? If not, why not?

    • damien
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

      .same reason…..surge in red/no surge in blue:the last four years!!!

    • margaret
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think we’re seeing light blue states turning purple and bush 2004 states which went Obama in 2008 reverting to their ‘normal’ color i.e red. It’s a very good trend for us (but must be very discouraging to any trolls lurking on this site!).

      • Ron
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

        It would appear, then, that the same surge of enthusiasm we see in the South would be present as a factor in purple states. That is to say, conservative voters would be enthused, Obama voters much less so, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm-inspired surges in the blue states. This would affect turnout.

  15. No Tribe
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 6:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Probably another 3 days before that monster day drops off for Romney.

  16. zang
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 6:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    More garbage Marist/MSNBC polls out: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444868204578064972682344786.html

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