These are getting fun again. SurveyUSA has a comical poll with Obama leading in Ohio but even with the lead the poll is awful for Obama. According to the survey he is up 45 to 42 with 9% Undecided. Here we have an incumbent President with a Democrat over-sample of 7% almost equal to the 2008 turnout of 8% more democrats and he can only garner 45% of the vote. That is horrible this late in the election. Additionally Obama’s support among Whites is 40% but more telling is Romney’s support among Blacks is 11%. In 2008 Obama got 46% of Ohio’s White vote and Romney got 2% of Ohio’s Black vote. If the racial voting preferences are as SurveyUSA reports in this survey, Obama will lose Ohio by 2 points even with a 7% Democrat turnout advantage assuming Undecideds break 2/3 for the challenger. Like I said this poll is horrible for the incumbent. And remember, watch out for phony Ohio early voting numbers:
In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 10/16/12, Barack Obama edges Mitt Romney 45% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Obama is flat at 45%, Romney is down 2 points, from 44% to 42%. Obama’s entire advantage comes from those Ohioans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Among early voters, Obama leads 57% to 38%. Among Ohioans who are likely to vote, but who have not yet done so, the contest is tied, 43% to 43%. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 3 points reported here. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, women are stable, but Obama picks up a couple of points among men. The gender gap today is 13 points. Both Obama and Romney lost support among Independents week-on-week. Romney declined 3 points, from 44% to 41%. Obama declined 2 points, from 35% to 33%. Obama gained ground week-on-week among middle-income voters. In greater Columbus, the contest is absolutely unchanged: 47% to 41% Obama last week; 47% to 41% Obama this week.
Addendum: Great point by Adam in the comments section:
the sample from Cincinnati vs Cleveland vs Columbus is 14%-40%-22%, Cincinnati is far more conservative than the two others and larger by population (Cincinnati has 50% more people than Columbus). If you’re going to break it down simply by population it should be more like 28%-26%-22%.