Obama +3 in Ohio — SurveyUSA

These are getting fun again.  SurveyUSA has a comical poll with Obama leading in Ohio but even with the lead the poll is awful for Obama.  According to the survey he is up 45 to 42 with 9% Undecided.  Here we have an incumbent President with a Democrat over-sample of 7% almost equal to the  2008 turnout of 8% more democrats and he can only garner 45% of the vote.  That is horrible this late in the election. Additionally Obama’s support among Whites is 40% but more telling is Romney’s support among Blacks is 11%.  In 2008 Obama got 46% of Ohio’s White vote and Romney got 2% of Ohio’s Black vote.  If the racial voting preferences are as SurveyUSA reports in this survey, Obama will lose Ohio by 2 points even with a 7% Democrat turnout advantage assuming Undecideds break 2/3 for the challenger.  Like I said this poll is horrible for the incumbent. And remember, watch out for phony Ohio early voting numbers:

In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 10/16/12, Barack Obama edges Mitt Romney 45% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Obama is flat at 45%, Romney is down 2 points, from 44% to 42%. Obama’s entire advantage comes from those Ohioans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Among early voters, Obama leads 57% to 38%. Among Ohioans who are likely to vote, but who have not yet done so, the contest is tied, 43% to 43%. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 3 points reported here. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, women are stable, but Obama picks up a couple of points among men. The gender gap today is 13 points. Both Obama and Romney lost support among Independents week-on-week. Romney declined 3 points, from 44% to 41%. Obama declined 2 points, from 35% to 33%. Obama gained ground week-on-week among middle-income voters. In greater Columbus, the contest is absolutely unchanged: 47% to 41% Obama last week; 47% to 41% Obama this week.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 42
Other 3
Undecided 9

Addendum: Great point by Adam in the comments section:

the sample from Cincinnati vs Cleveland vs Columbus is 14%-40%-22%, Cincinnati is far more conservative than the two others and larger by population (Cincinnati has 50% more people than Columbus). If you’re going to break it down simply by population it should be more like 28%-26%-22%.

26 Comments

  1. Brian
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 9:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It’s going to be hilarious when Ohio is called for Romney on election night and the media gives a collective “WTF?!”

    They have NO idea what’s coming. They’ve treated Ohio as some sort of magical “firewall” for Obama the whole time, because without it, his presidency ends. Can’t wait to see the looks on their faces when it turns red on November 6th.

  2. stephanie
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    How obama can gain ground with middle income men or women is beyond me,even more troubling is that romney loses support among independents week on week, it is scary to me that these people are going to determine the fate of our country Nov. 6!

    • WolvenOne
      Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bad sample, apparently this group of voters voted for Obama by 8% in 2008, despite the fact that Obama won by 5%, this is in addition to the large oversampling of democrats. Despite all this, Obama cannot break 45%, and if those undecideds broke for Romney at their usual historical ratio, Romney would win.

      Gotta pay close attention to the internals, they usually give you a better idea what is going on.

      • WillBest
        Posted October 18, 2012 at 1:44 am | Permalink

        That doesn’t make a bad sample. People either lie and say they voted for the winner or they legitimately don’t remember and say they voted for the winner.

  3. Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t believe Romney could be up nationally and and behind in Ohio, it defies history http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2944697/posts

    • Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree with you which is why I break down those polls. They’re simply not accurate reflections of what is going on in Ohio. That is a great post from you. Lots of good data that is never reported in the media. I may blog it at some point.

      • Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

        The problem is a graph is really needed to show the relationship. I just a basic spreadsheet. Not like the stuff on “Zero hedge” 🙂

      • Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

        There was a typo or two in your numbers though so I’ll have to re-run them. Gore’s Ohio % was 46.56 for example and Kerry Ohio # was 48.70 (you did your illegal rounding up to get 48.71). But if I blog it I’ll be sure to credit your original work.

  4. margaret
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting twitter comment from former Bush insider Adrian Gray tonight:

    Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray
    Ohio: Survey USA has 3-point race. Interesting number: 56% of early voters are Tea Party supporters.

    GO Tea Party! You know who they vote for!!

    • mdsanders
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yet early voters broke for Obama 57 to 38 in that poll. How the heck does that work?

  5. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    It seems pollsters (even PPP) are starting to use “sensible” numbers for other states now (hell, even PPP admitted Romney was ahead in Florida!), but are clinging on to their shenanigans in Ohio to the bitter end.

    • Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Because Ohio is where their hope lies and they want to discourage those voters up there that can swing it to Romney. Problem is that the blogosphere has exposed the issues with polling. This has been a great site for that. We’ve seen it discussed on RedState and heard about it on the radio from Medved, Rush, Hewitt, Levin, Hannity, and many others. The mainstream media is at a low point for trust, so people dig to find out more.

      Ohio could go anywhere between D+2 to R+2 in my opinion. And Romney in this poll is still up by 7 points among indies. I’ll play conservative and say the indies will break 60-40 to Romney – that would put Romney at near 56% with independents, meaning he is likely to be leading among that group by double digits.

      If Romney wins indies in Ohio by 10 points there is no way he loses the state. In fact, I’d guess he’d win by five points or better in that case.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 17, 2012 at 11:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      PPP knows that NC and FL are going to be bad losses for Obamba, so they need to bring down polls down to reality in several stages; they can’t “correct” in one fell swoop or it would be embarrassing.

  6. Medicine Man
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting quote regarding early voting from someone from the Romney campaign being way ahead of the 2008 levels. http://nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017?page=2

  7. zang
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I wonder if Democrats are just more likely to lie about the early voting thing?

  8. Pete
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Incumbent @ 45% less than 3 weeks out from election = toast.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 17, 2012 at 10:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      +5

  9. No Tribe
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is great news, Obama at 45 or 43 just means they are pulling away from him, and they will not go back.

  10. Eric
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 11:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s a spreadsheet on absentee ballot requests in Ohio that someone put together:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

    Not mine. It shows Republicans way ahead of 2008’s numbers (7.5% actually). If that’s replicated in all voters, then that’s a 2/3 point win for Romney in Ohio. It’ll probably be larger than that though because of the enthusiasm gap.

  11. Posted October 18, 2012 at 12:37 am | Permalink | Reply

    20 days out and Obama is above 50 in only the hardest core of Democrat states…that is a very very bad sign for him. If he pulls this off his name will be on quite a few entries in the history as defying all conventional wisdom. Job approval under 50, solid. No swing state is he above 50, not even Penn or Michigan. Unless those numbers start breaking, and breaking solid and hard by the weekend. I think we can start to say the odds have to be against Obama on re-elect. Again unless all history goes out the window and undecideds break for the incumbent for the first time ever.

    • Pete
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 12:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      One example of CW you may be referring to is Romney is @ 51% in Gallup and every candidate @ 50% or higher @ this late stage has gone on to win.

  12. Adam
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 8:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    Another interesting note from this poll, the sample from Cinncinatti vs Cleveland vs Columbus is 14%-40%-22%, Cinncinatti is far more conservative than the two others and larger by population (Cinncinatti has 50% more people than Columbus). If you’re going to break it down simply by population it should be more like 28%-26%-22%. These people are pathetic, on election night I’m going to set up 2 TV’s so I can watch MSNBC and Current, just to see their stupid liberal heads explode when the dear leader loses!

  13. Ken
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 2:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think the bigest problem for most of you on this blog is that, it seems the only ones paying close attention are conservatives. It shows me that you are concerned, Ohio voters will probably vote for Obama but after the debate, I think you see a bump and dont forget the final debate is on FP, not what Romney needs, he missed on Lybia and it will be hard to gain ground on that in the up coming debate. I think what is more damning is the fact that the economy is not on the plate for Monday, this will be disheartening to you folks if the Jobs report before the election shows improvement. Plus, although there are alot of male voters in Ohio, there are also alot of women voters in Ohio, we will see how Romney’s binder’s comment impacts the numbers and the race. Dont call it yet!

    • Adam
      Posted October 18, 2012 at 3:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      yeah, there’s 49-51% Women… Just like the rest of the country.

      My question is, aren’t democrats worried when their team has to focus on issues like Big Bird and Binders? Honestly, the Binder flap has gotta be the stupidest attack in the history of politics! Anyone that watched the debate know he was talking about binders full of resumes. Trying to use that against him reeks of desperation.

      So my hope is, your team keeps repeating that. Buy millions of dollars worth of air time dedicated to binders. Hell, print binders that say Mitt’s women! All Mitt needs to do is keep repeating the last 4 years has been a failure, and Obama’s plan is more of the same.

  14. Bob
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney will now bring up bump in the road and not optimal. And if you think our ability to lead in foreign policy is not related to our economy you are mistaken. Look for some Romney comments on our economy.

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