Obama +3 in Nevada — Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports checks in on Nevada where we again find Obama kissing the 50% threshold like we saw in New Hampshire earlier this morning.  The President leads by 3-points in this race though, 50 to 47 with only 1% Undecided:

President Obama has now hit the 50% mark again in Nevada for the first time since July. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters shows Obama with 50% support to Mitt Romney’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided. Nevada remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Nationally, the race is closer in the Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on October 15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 47
Other 2
Undecided 1

9 Comments

  1. zang
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 12:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    According to the cross tabs, 55% of respondents are female, and Obama has a 13% lead among independent voters. Looks like a screwy sample to me.

  2. sth88
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    CAC says on twitter that the partisan split in this survey is D+9. In 2008, it was D+8.

  3. Posted October 17, 2012 at 1:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    …while a SurveyUSA poll with a similar 48-45 lead for Obama has Romney winning Indies by 18! What’s going on here?

  4. Posted October 17, 2012 at 1:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    i think Nevada, Penn, Michigan are “in play” but slightly longer shots than Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin…in my opinion. I think Iowa and Nevada are going Obama but by small margins. Romney must win Ohio and take colorado.

  5. William Jefferson
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gallup has Romney up 51-45 today. That’s a 7-day rolling average. This is going to be a landslide. Incumbents lose about 3 points of the vote share the last 3 weeks on Gallup; Obama will be around 43% on election day. These swing states will work themselves out. Without leaners, this poll is 48-47 Obama. He’ll lose a couple points of that, too, just like he will nationally. This race is almost over.

    • Posted October 17, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      if he is still up this much this time next week…GREAT sign. But I am guessing this poll will come back down to earth here a bit and end up be 1-2 poins either way.

      BTW didn’t Gallup change their methodology to please Obama (something about more minorities, less whites) or was that just in their job approval poll? Cause they still hate this poll.

  6. Kevin
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 2:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    How can Romney not be up by at least 5 in Nevada since they have one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation of around 12%?

    http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/nevada/

    I can’t believe that the people of Nevada want four more years of this type of economic downturn for their state.

    • jeff
      Posted October 17, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The demographics of NV has changed alot as the result of mass influx of California liberal types.

  7. bsmith
    Posted October 19, 2012 at 12:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Not sure why people discount the Mormon effect. The final numbers that actually vote is going to be much higher than any of the polls. If Obama is up 3% it is probably dead even, or maybe even Romney slightly ahead.

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