Marquette Law School is expected to release the details of their latest Wisconsin poll showing Barack Obama clinging to a 1-point lead, 49 to 48. This is a dramatic change from their previous poll showing President Obama with an 11-point lead in Wisconsin. The prior poll surveyed voters in late September and was released the day of the first debate. Today’s poll was surveyed ahead of the 2nd debate which means the stellar job Romney did in the first debate likely created some structural shifts in the Wisconsin electorate. The Marquette Law School poll is very well respected in Wisconsin politics and they they nailed the Wisconsin recall election in June when pollsters were all over the map in that hotly contested race.
Romney +4 with Independents:
Partisanship continues to anchor support for both parties. In the presidential race, 97 percent of Republicans support Romney and 96 percent of Democrats support Obama. Independents lean to Romney 49 to 45 percent.
The party ID in today’s survey is D +1 (Dem 47, Rep 46, Ind 6) versus 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29) and 2004 of R +3 (Dem 35, Rep 38, Ind 27) in 2004. The Marquette Law School poll, conducted Oct. 11 through Oct. 14, surveyed 870 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points. Note: there is a breakdown of the Registered Voters surveyed that is D +5 (Dem 49, Rep 44, Ind 7 ) which is consistent with the trend from 2010 where registered voter polls over-sample Democrat support by 4 percentage points. Sorry for the confusion to anyone who saw I flipped this at first.
From Wisconsin’s top political reporter, Craig Gilbert:
Obama leads in 4 WI polls taken since 1st prez debate: 1, 2, 2, 3. Obama leads in 6 Sept polls before prez debates: 6, 14, 5, 3, 7, 11.
— Craig Gilbert(@WisVoter) October 17, 2012
Candidates Favorable/Unfavorable levels:
- Obama still holds edge in favorable image, at 52% fav/ 44% unfav. It was 56-41 two wks ago
- Romney fav/unfav 43/48% now, was 39/53 among all registered voters two weeks earlier.
VP debate reaction from Marquette Law:
- Before VP debate, Ryan fav/unfav was 46/41. Afterward, it was 50/40.
- Before VP debate, Biden fav/unfav was 49/41. Afterward, it was 44/47