Bye Bye North Carolina

The political press is beginning the drumbeat of something readers at BattlegroundWatch.com knew all along:

Where’s the Tar Heel love?
By DAVID CHALIAN

Due to the shifting demographics (younger and less white) and a concerted organizing push surrounding the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, the Obama team has long promised to play there all the way until Election Day.  The president’s campaign has remained on the television airwaves and his wife made a prominent debate-day push in advance of early-voting kicking off in the state.

However, President Obama has not stepped foot in the state since his convention drew to a close nearly six weeks ago.  After he touches down in Iowa and New Hampshire this week, every other battleground state will have gotten some in-person Obama post-convention love except for the Tar Heel state.

Making predictions is something I tend to avoid as much as possible.  As Yogi Berra famously said, it’s particularly hard when trying to do so about the future.  My reservation didn’t stop me from sending a tweet a little over a year ago that predicted Obama would be unlikely return to North Carolina to campaign after he departed following his convention speech.

I recall several folks from Team Obama mocking me about what a silly prediction that was at the time.

There are three weeks left in the campaign and plenty of opportunity for the president to touch down in North Carolina. In fact, he promised tens of thousands of disappointed supporters that he’d be back after he had to move his big Bank of America Stadium acceptance speech indoors due to the threat of inclement weather.

I’m pretty sure a soon to be released campaign schedule will likely prove my prediction wrong, but six weeks is a long stretch of time without setting foot in a battleground state. It’s hard to imagine Ohio or Florida getting similar treatment.

6 Comments

  1. Posted October 17, 2012 at 2:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Just looked at Obama’s current polling across the RCP batlegrounds compared to 2008 margin of victory. His best state he is up 1/4 of what he was in 2008 his worst he is up 1/10 of the margin before. The average is less than half the margin.

    Many of these states will be close but Romney won’t close. But a lot of these within 3 or less, I think he has a real shot. This race will either be a squaker for Obama or a Landslide for Romney.

  2. Kevin
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I thought the North Carolina win was a fluke for Obama. He only won the state by 14,000 votes, not enough to fill up a NBA or NHL arena. The college students pushed him over the top in North Carolina because he was new, young, and cool. Four years later, the enthusiasm for Obama is down big time among college students this time around, and North Carolina has a lot of colleges, and Universities.

    The other aspect that is going to bring North Carolina back to the Republicans is a very unpopular Governor.

  3. jpcapra1
    Posted October 17, 2012 at 4:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Florida will be the next state to fall. 0bama hasn’t been here at all in the last 6 weeks, other than to raise money. Instead he sends the backbenchers like Biden this Friday, and Rahm Emmanuel sometime next week. And I haven’t seen an 0bama TV ad in two weeks.

  4. Posted October 17, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Major Garrett reporting in National Journal that while not stating publicly the Obama Camp is circling the wagons in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. They have all but given up NC, Virginia and Florida….and Garrett noted that Obama’s camp left Colorado off that list. Seems maybe they see the writing there. Their firewall is shrinking. If, IF, Romney can pull ahead in Ohio in the averages, OVER

    • Kevin
      Posted October 17, 2012 at 6:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      This is very, very interesting. In the Garrett story, you have to scroll halfway down under the videos. Major Garrett has always come off as a credible person.

      What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

      It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

      http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017?mrefid=mostViewed

      The story then goes into the Electoral Road to 270. Obama can afford to leave Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, but he must win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, that will put Obama at 247. If Obama holds those three states, all Obama will need is a combination of Ohio (18) and Iowa (6), or Ohio (18) and Nevada (6), those will bring Obama to 271.

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html

      Romney will need Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29), those will bring him to 248. Romney is looking good in Colorado (9) that will bring him to 257. From there, Romney will need Ohio (18) to bring him to 275, or Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4) that would bring the total to 271.

      Romney can win without Ohio, but, and it’s a big but, he will have to win Wisconsin and New Hampshire to go with Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Colorado.

      It’s getting interesting folks.

      • Posted October 17, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

        It’s newsy but I debated blogging it because Plouffe could just as easily say he was just rattling off states and Garrett is overreading into things. I really went back and forth on that story and probably should have blogged it.

One Trackback

  1. […] goes on to point out what you already know that North Carolina is off the schedule and off the Battleground States list.  He then gets back […]

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