Thoughts on Romney’s Prospects in Pennsylvania — GayPatriot

We hosted the Democrat Perspective early on in this blog’s life explaining why Pennsylvania was fool’s gold to the Romney campaign.  At the time it seemed the Romney campaign agreed as the Keystone State was not one of its Battleground State priorities.  Now that Pennsylvania is bubbling back up into the news following 5 straight polls showing it within the margin of error, GayPatriot on Sunday weighed in on his former home state using his own sources high up in Pennsylvania politics:

I grew up in the Philadelphia suburbs. I also “grew up in politics” in the Keystone State. So I am one of “those people” that since 1988 has always hoped that “Pennsylvania is in play” in the Presidential Election. As we all know, it hasn’t happened. It is that time of the year again, as I gaze yearningly north of the Mason-Dixon Line to wonder if this is the year? Will the “bitter clingers” & Northeast PA Catholics finally reject Barack Obama and the New Democrat Party?

Well, there are some developments on that front.

This week, the RealClearPolitics average of polls made a dramatic shift in its Electoral College Map. For the first time in many years, Pennsylvania is now a true “Toss Up” state (as well as Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin). Two polls that I’ve seen came out of Pennsylvania showing a tie, but the RCP average of the state’s polls shows a slight Romney edge. As Crazy VP Biden would say, “that’s a big f–cking deal!”

Now I have some more news for everyone about Pennsylvania. Those of you who read Jim Geraghty at National Review Online know that he has campaign sources he has called “Obi Wan,” “Big Cheese,” and “Middle Cheese.”

Well, I have two very good insiders in Pennsylvania politics that I will call “Rolling Rock” and “Yuengling.” Rolling Rock, Yuengling and I have known each other for over 20 years. And all I’m comfortable in saying is that both are very influential political operatives and know what they are talking about. They also have different political networks in Pennsylvania. So that being said, I sent feelers to Rolling Rock & Yuengling today, asking them about my infamous “white whale”. Here’s what I got:

RR: The Obama-Romney race is within the margin of error. At this point it looks like Obama is going to have to start spending some serious money in order to save Pennsylvania from falling.

Y: Obama-Romney and Casey-Smith (US Senate) are both essentially tied. Casey appears to be sinking fast. Smith has the momentum and resources to win.

So my two friends have me hoisting the sails and turning The Pequod’s bow toward the north yet again.

22 Comments

  1. No Tribe
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That Senate race has shifted quickly. Casey cold footed and out the door.

  2. Pete
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “race is within the margin of error”

    But is it feasible for Romney to get outside of the margin of fraud?

    • damien
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      not when u got some philly places that will have 100% turnout

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

        They are not paying in Philly for ’12. No money means no votes.

  3. Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    We’ve seen the same thing happen here in Florida. The tide is turning against Nelson and Mack has gone from double digits down to tied in a few weeks.

    I think Western Pennsylvania will play BIG here. Fracking and coal mean a lot and they will turn out. A lot of white Democrats will cross party lines against both Obama and Casey.

    • stephanie
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Can’t wait to get rid of Nelson!

  4. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Virginia Poll by “Kimball Political Pollsters” Anyone heard of them?

    It’s R+11. http://www.heraldonline.com/2012/10/16/4341542/new-mirror-image-gallup-poll-shows.html

    • Keith W
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow, so ARG does a Rep+1 poll that finds Romney up by 1 point and this outfit does the same thing, a Rep+1 poll based on Gallup’s numbers from June (35R 34D 30I) and gets a Romney +11 result.

      As much as I want that to be accurate, it just doesn’t pass the smell test.

      • GV
        Posted October 16, 2012 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

        I’d love for this poll to be true but they grossly underestimate the youth vote (18-29) and overestimate seniors. The youth vote made up around a fifth of the electorate in 2008 and yet in this poll it accounts for just 3-4% (and Romney is apprently winning them according to this!). Plus, they undersample women. Romney might be just ahead but this is probably a little too optimistic

      • WillBest
        Posted October 16, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

        That would be a bad poll that didn’t weight anything and just took who answered the phone which is older people.

  5. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If Penn is even “in-close-Play” it is game over. As long as Romney can hold his own tonight, be clear and concise and articulate a vision for his four years, we can call this close to done. On the ground, door knock, phone calls matter more than ever now for the next three weeks. I was looking through some election filings…PA-18 Tim Murphy has 1 million more cash on hand, PA-12 Rothfus has 200k less than his dem inc Critz, PA-08 Fitzpatrick has 100k+ more cash on hand, and PA-06 Gerlach has about 500k more COH. So we have pretty good cash on hand #’s for Republicans in house races that are a bit competitive. Also i think the golden Ticket here is farmer/self funder Smith running for Senate. He has alot of funds, and is not deep into the “political” as his opponent. He has good messaging and running as outsider. Hopefully that will pull the rural areas of Penn large for Romney even more then the rural landslide reports we are seeing today. Looking good, very good. Would like to know were Smith has offices setup around the state? Anyone have an update on Smith campaign/gotv offices?

  6. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here we go…”Republican Tom Smith puts another $10 million of his own money into Senate campaign”…ahh warsm my heart some patriots who put their own money forward to steer the country in the right direction! 😉

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20121016_Republican_Tom_Smith_puts_another__10_million_of_his_own_money_into_Senate_campaign.html

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wow, so he will be able to outspend Casey 2:1 over the final weeks of the campaign.

  7. No Tribe
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I have strong doubts that Obama really wants to make the election come down to Ohio. It’s just not an even playing field for his campaign. Too many things favor Romney. I read today that Obama is opening two new offices for fieldwork in Virginia, and this past weekend, they invested a huge amount of money into putting out signs on supporters lawns in NoVA. I’ll wait and see another week, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we start seeing Obama in Virginia a lot more than in Ohio. Even Florida, with its massive Latino growth, is better demos than Ohio is for Obama.

    There’s an election scenario where Obama loses Ohio, wins Virginia, and Romney has to win Iowa and Maine’s 1 CD to get to 269.

    • Posted October 16, 2012 at 5:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Florida’s Latino population is different, though. Lots of Cubans that tend to vote Republican here. That’s why I believe the poll from the TB Times/Miami Herald that shows Romney up by Latinos in the state. I also know someone who is Puerto Rican, voted Obama last time, and is big time for Romney this time – and he says he knows other hispanics who feel the same.

      There are so many issues with how polls are created. Here in Florida, you need to not only get the party splits right, but the age splits, the race demos, the sex demos, AND the area. If you overpoll in Miami-Dade as opposed to here in Tampa Bay or up in Duval (Jacksonville), your result will skew. The Miami Metro area is the largest in the state, but also has large pockets where people don’t turn out. But Tampa Bay is only about a million people fewer, but we usually end up as an even split with Miami Metro when it comes to votes, but Tampa Bay tends to trend more towards the Republicans. Pinellas did swing last time, but out entire county commission is Republicans, as is our Sheriff, etc. St. Pete has a Republican mayor as does Clearwater. This is a county with over 600,000 voters. While the Democrats have a slight edge in registrations, the GOP tends to always turnout more – and independents are swinging here in Pinellas, just like they swung it to Obama last time.

      Hillsborough, the county that Tampa sits in, also has tended to vote GOP with 2008 being an exception. Democrats also outnumber the GOP in registration, but not usually in turnout. But just between Hillsborough and Pinellas, there are over 1.3 million registered voters. Add in Pasco (home of New Port Richey), and another 300,000 voters are there (and Pasco is always a GOP county, even in 2008). Polk County (home of Lakeland) has another 350,000 voters and tends to go GOP. Sarasota County has another 277,000 voters and skews heavily Republican. And Manatee has another 200,000 voters and also skews heavily Republican.

      So this swing area of the state swings primarily on Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties and right now they look to be swinging to Romney. Turnout projections and polling seem to indicate that Romney will have about 225,000 more votes from Tampa Bay than Obama will.

      • TeaPartyPaul
        Posted October 16, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

        Nice read Jeff….thanks

      • Posted October 16, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

        You’re welcome. Let me also say that the 225,000 vote margin for Romney that can be projected is far greater than any advantage in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Turnout and polling there tends to indicate Obama getting about 50,000 more votes than Romney. The panhandle will go overwhelming for Romney as will SW Florida (Ft. Myers and Naples). Orange County (Orlando) seems to be going Romney, but it’ll be more of a squeaker, yet Dem turnout there is usually weaker than most of the state due to the transient population. Volusia county (Daytona) and Duval (Jacksonville) will also probably go Romney. I think his statewide margin will be over 250,000, probably over 300,000. In short, Romney will win by more than Obama did in 2008. And there actually are some indications he’ll break even in the Miami Metro area.

      • TeaPartyPaul
        Posted October 16, 2012 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

        Well by what i have read, and studied…we see that the I-** coridor from Orlando to Tampa is the “secret swing” of Florida. I actually to let your “heart not be troubled”, have two freinds tht moved to Tmpa Bay earlier this year, her husband is in the military, just voted with 2 votes for Mitt Romney by absentee. how do the highway sings, yard signs, bumper stickers in that area curtail? Also, like i went through earlier, have you looked up “cash on hand” for representatives in and throughout Florida, because i believe their push nd their cash on hand will also pull ou the vote?

  8. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 5:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

    it’s 270…in central Pennsylvania – things look pretty quiet. equal number of romney and obama stickers. havent seen much ads

    • Posted October 16, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

      269 and a Republican House gets Romney the White House. But more than likely 269 actually gets us back in the US Supreme Court again and massive recounts across the country,

  9. No Tribe
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If Obama brings up 47% Romney ought to shame him by replying that he already admitted he was wrong in saying that, similarly to Obama being wrong to say of Pennsylvania being “bitter clingers to God and Guns” and then pivot to being about bigger things than gaffes.

  10. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 6:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    47%…i am more concerned that 47 million people are on food stamps because of your economic policies

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