Romney +1 in Colorado — We Ask America

We Ask America hits Colorado and Iowa today with a couple tight polls. The Colorado shows Mitt Romney with a 1-point lead, 48 to 47.  The party ID is R +1 (Dem 34, Rep 35, Ind 31 ). This compares to 2008 of R +1 (Dem 30, Rep 31, Ind 39) and 2004 R +9 (Dem 29, Rep 38, Ind 33).  That’s pretty aggressive in favor of Obama’s 2008 turnout which likely won’t happen.  Colorado is one of the few states where an even split between the two prior elections likely isn’t warranted as the state is trending Democrat, but shading it slightly off the middle is quite different than expecting a full blown repeat of the 2008 turnout which is what this poll modeled:

We try to fulfill as many poll requests as possible, especially when someone reminds us that we haven’t re-polled two states lately that could play important roles in a tight presidential race: Iowa and Colorado. Both are considered swing states, but their political underpinnings vary as much as their terrains. Still, each have earned their Swing State status by having an electorate that doesn’t fit comfortably into political molds.

On the evening of October 15 … 1,206 likely voters in Colorado (Margin of Error: ±2.9%) and asked them who they plan to vote for plus an array of demographic questions. We included Libertarian Gary Johnson to measure support for a third party. [T]he following results have been weighted to correct for any over-/under-sampling, and we’ve included the breakdown of self-described Republicans / Democrats / Independents that completed the questions.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 48
Gary Johnson 1
Undecided 4

3 Comments

  1. Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:14 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think R+3 for Colorado probably is about right. That would mean that Obama needs indies to back him solidly in order to win. I’m not sure that’s happening.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Good they are including Johnson. I think he’s going to pull more from Obama than Romney in both Colorado and Oregon.

  3. JGS
    Posted October 18, 2012 at 4:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New PPP poll from Colorado, just released today, shows Obama +3 but with a D oversample of +3 (i.e., 4% more Democratic voters even than showed up to vote in 2008).

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