Obama +4 in Pennsylvania — Quinnipiac

Add Quinnipiac to the list. The Keystone State is undeniably competitive with the 5th straight different polling outfit showing the race within the margin of error.  Previously we had the following:

Now Quinnipiac shows President Obama leading by 4-points, 49 to 45. Like countless other polls, the President can’t crack 50%.  Also consistently unique to Pennsylvania, a strong Senate challenger may be lifting a Romney campaign that spent comparatively little in the state with Tom Smith trailing Bob Casey Jr. by 3-points 48 to 45.  The party ID was D +8, (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 26). In 2008 party ID was D +7 (Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18) while in 2004 it was D +2 (Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20).   So this is a 4-point race assuming a turnout advantage for Obama greater than his 2008 performance?  Not gonna happen.  Another great poll for Romney”

Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed a 12-point gap with President Barack Obama and now trails the president 50 – 46 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 54 – 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University. In today’s survey, men back Romney 54 – 43 percent, compared to a 49 – 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 – 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 – 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 – 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 – 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney. Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days.”Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute…Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Casey Jr. has 48 percent in his reelection bid to 45 percent for businessman Tom Smith, his Republican challenger.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 46
Other 1
Undecided 3

One Comment

  1. Posted October 16, 2012 at 9:38 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think D+3 or 4 is more realistic, though I could see D+2. Thing about Pennsylvania is where the Democrat samples are taken. There are a lot of Democrats in western Penn who will switch and vote Republican.

    This poll was also weighted. The actual splits from the polling sample were D/R/I of 37.7/33.4/25.8. So they basically kept the indies and weighted the poll to be more Democratic, though I think the essentially D+4 is more realistic.

    D+4 probably puts this at about even and surging GOP turnout coupled with diminished Democrat turnout could push it as low as D+2, as we saw in 2004. Like most polls I’ve seen, more Democrats are likely to cross over than Republicans so I’d assume that the GOP has a much more solid vote. It’s a question of how much of Obama’s support is soft.

    I think there’ll be a couple million people who will say they support Obama, but when they really think about it as they fill out their ballot I think they’ll switch to Romney.

4 Trackbacks

  1. […] Battleground State priorities.  Now that Pennsylvania is bubbling back up into the news following 5 straight polls showing it within the margin of error, GayPatriot on Sunday weighed in on his former home state […]

  2. […] is located right on the border of rural Pennsylvania which will generate local press in a state far more competitive than the media or campaign wishes. Sounds like we have another concession from Team Obama that […]

  3. […] Quinipiac: Obama +4 […]

  4. […] Quinnipiac: Obama +4 (Oct 16) […]

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