Obama +3 in Iowa — We Ask America

This is the companion poll to the one below with We Ask America polling Iowa and finding President Obama with a 3-point lead, 49 to 46.  The party ID is D +3 (Dem 36, Rep 33, Ind 31 ). This compares to 2008 of D +1 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33) and 2004 R +2 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30).  Considering how little the Iowa electorate swings between the previous two elections which were the widest swings in 30 years, it is silly to expect and even larger turnout for Obama in 2012 than he had in 2008.  And with the President only leading by 3-points with this unusually high turnout advantage, it is a good sign for Romney”

We try to fulfill as many poll requests as possible, especially when someone reminds us that we haven’t re-polled two states lately that could play important roles in a tight presidential race: Iowa and Colorado. Both are considered swing states, but their political underpinnings vary as much as their terrains. Still, each have earned their Swing State status by having an electorate that doesn’t fit comfortably into political molds.

On the evening of October 15, we called 1,499 likely voters in Iowa (Margin of Error: ±2.6%) and asked them who they plan to vote for plus an array of demographic questions. We included Libertarian Gary Johnson to measure support for a third party. [T]he following results have been weighted to correct for any over-/under-sampling, and we’ve included the breakdown of self-described Republicans / Democrats / Independents that completed the questions.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 46
Gary Johnson 1
Undecided 4


  1. acasilaco
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    You say it’s D+3, but then say (D33, R36, I31). Am I misreading that?

    • Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      Who are you going to believe? Me? Or your lying eyes?

      • acasilaco
        Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:13 am | Permalink

        Well, my coffee hasn’t kicked in yet, so….

      • Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:24 am | Permalink

        I’m messing with you. You were correct. I transposed the party ID incorrectly. Thanks for spotting my error.

    • MattWestfall
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:13 am | Permalink | Reply

      Don’t believe the man who can edit and change facts after you call him on it. Keith, channeling BO today?

      • acasilaco
        Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:39 am | Permalink


  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 4:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Too bad it’s skewed a bit, but another overall good result. Takeaway the D+2 and it’s tied up.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: