Higher Favorability: President Obama or Mitt Romney? Answer Will Surprise You

Sean Trende just tweeted out a great point which is Mitt Romney is viewed more favorably by the public than the allegedly more popular President Obama.  This is despite over half-a-billion dollars in negative ads run against him by the Obama re-election team.  No candidate has ever been subjected to such an onslaught yet today according to the Real Clear Politics average the net favorables on Mitt Romney are +5.4 while the net favorables on President Obama are +5.0.  Let’s see how quickly the media picks up on this #NarrativeFail aggressively pushed by the Obama campaign and parroted by the compliant press:

UPDATE: Thanks to commenter MattWestfall for pointing out something I only glanced at.   The outlier survey in this aggregate is the ludicrous ABC/Washington Post poll where Democrats were over-sampled by 9 percentage points.  Without that poll, the average adjusts to Obama net favorability +3.8 and Romney net favorability +7.2 — a +3.4pp disparity. And yet some people wonder why these news organizations favoring Obama uncritically run with these obviously unreasonable polls …

Candidate’s Favorability on Oct 16 12

9 Comments

  1. MattWestfall
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The outlier, ABC/WaPo, represents nearly an entire retracement of the 2.6 point favorability lead that the other polls would have Romney enjoying but for that outlier. The mask is coming off the narrative. People are ready for a change.

    • MattWestfall
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bad math. Sorry. Make that 3.2 points.

      • Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

        Thanks Matt. I ran with the corrected numbers which actually ended up with a +3.4pp spread. Good catch.

      • Vadim
        Posted October 16, 2012 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

        Nice number on a Gallup tracking today! 50 R 46 O.

  2. Posted October 16, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gallup has Romney up by 4 today (10/16/12) 50-46

  3. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Also, ABC’s numbers are of Registered Voters. What is the utility of sampling RVs at this point?

    • Posted October 16, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      To try to make Obama look better? Doesn’t help. Even the D+8 samples don’t look too good. Obama only up by four in Pennsylvania with D+8? He won by 10 POINTS in 2008 when it was D+7. If he’s lost six points against the 2008 model (or worse, as is likely) then that evaporates his seven point win against McCain without even accounting for higher GOP turnout and slightly diminished Democrat turnout.

      My personal feeling is we’re going to see a pretty even Democratic-Republican split nationally on election day. I know many still want to go for a Democrat +2-4 turnout advantage, and that’s fair, but I think it’s likely to be even in the end. We’ve already seen greater enthusiasm in the absentee returns, like in Iowa where the GOP is trailing by far less in returned ballots than they are in requested ballots. Bet there were a lot of early absentee requests for Obama that will not get filled out.

  4. Posted October 16, 2012 at 1:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    even if you dump the ABC though Obama is still at 50% and Romney at 50.2%….so we are deadlocked.

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