The Romney Scenario

I love watching the Lefties get nervous.  They can’t help themselves as the house of cards come tumbling down.  With North Carolina already banked, Florida steadily slipping away, and insiders whispering Virginia showing some separation between the candidates. Mitt Romney’s path to 270 gets a lot easier really really fast.  Add in the incredible commitment from the Romney campaign in Ohio — I believe they have had an official rally in the state by either Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan in each of the last six days — and suddenly Team Romney is in the catbird seat through election day. The uber plugged-in Mark Halperin runs an electoral map under this scenario and it is sending shivers down the spine of the Obamatons:

Here’s why some Democrats are worried tonight. If Romney wins the three Southern battlegrounds (FL, NC, and VA) and OH, he is at 266 electoral votes. Leaving the other five battlegrounds unallocated, that means Obama would be at 237 and Romney would only need to win one of the remaining five states to get to 270+. See the map above.

One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).

This doesn’t mean Romney has the upper hand right now. But it is no longer at all implausible that he could take the three Southern battlegrounds and Ohio. If he does that, he sure as heck would have the upper hand. And that leaves at least some Democrats with the shakes.

12 Comments

  1. David Boette
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 11:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think Nebraska (and Maine) Divide their Electoral Votes by county, and that there is one ‘blue’ county in Nebraska that Team Obama is investing in… So New Hampshire wouldn’t be the last straw on the Donkey’s back. ( those bastards, 🙂 )

    Even the little map on Wikepedia of the 08 election shows this little blue county…

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)

    But then you can ask,,, IS THERE A RED COUNTY IN MAINE that team Romney could peal off?

    • Perry Lin
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink | Reply

      Actually, all of the electoral votes in Nebraska should go to Romney. Nebraska redistricted to favor Romney and the state is not in play. However, there is 1 swing district in Maine that is up for grabs.

  2. Kevin
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 11:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Keith, one of the states you didn’t list, that is starting to lean Romney is Colorado. Obama won Colorado 53% to 45%, that’s a big time win. Now he’s struggling, and fighting for his political life in the Mile High State. And to think, it was just four years ago, Denver is where Obama had his “come to Jesus” I mean, “come to Barack” speech.

    It looks like the 3-2-1 plan is starting to take affect for Romney.

    The “3” is to win Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. Three traditional Republican states Bush won in 2004, that Obama won in 2008.
    The “2” is to win Ohio, and Florida. The “two big ones” Bush won in 2004, and Obama won in 2008.
    The “1” is to win a Swing State that Obama won in 2008. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, or New Mexico. New Mexico now replaced by Wisconsin.

    • Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:01 am | Permalink | Reply

      Kevin I completely agree. The states mention above were from Mark Halperin. I think Romney is doing really well in Colorado and should expect that state to start leaning his way so long as he has a strong debate tomorrow.

  3. Kevin
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    Dick Morris on Sean Hannity show October 15th. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and even New Jersey Is in play.

    This is very interesting considering how this could trickle down the ballot in those states.

    • Brian
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      Jersey ain’t happenin. And unless Mitt starts to make a real push for them, Pennsylvania and my native Michigan will stay blue too.

    • jvnvch
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 6:03 am | Permalink | Reply

      I disagree with Morris. I don’t think Romney should raise his sights yet. Ohio is the ballgame right now. Getting that state in the bank is the first order of business. After that’s done, then will be the time to consider raising sights, but not before.

  4. Pete
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    Shorter Halperin: Ohio’s gone to Romney unless a miracle happens.

    • Pete
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:12 am | Permalink | Reply

      Going to Romney (damn iPad)

  5. Timothy
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t know about New Jersey, but I think they should at least send Ann Romney and Tagg Romney to Oregon. Why not!

  6. Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:22 am | Permalink | Reply

    Mitt seems to be Mister Uber-Cautious when it comes to locking up states.

    He’s lived in OH last week. If he starts moving out into PA or MI or WI, that’s a great sign OH is looking strong

    • petep
      Posted October 16, 2012 at 12:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney is uber-cautious because of his experience in the primaries in 08 & 12….

One Trackback

  1. […] Backer, as usual, nails a good lead from Time magazine’s Mark Halperin.  In it, Mr. Halperin discusses how the campaign is truly […]

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