Romney +1 in Virginia — American Research Group

The latest from ARG in Virginia has Mitt Romney nominally ahead by 1-point 48 to 47. The party ID is D +5 (Dem 40, Rep 35, Ind 25) which compares to 2008 of D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).  Pretty aggressive in favor of Team Obama here on turnout.  The male/female breakdown is a hair more towards men than 2008 but only 1%. The racial breakdown is close but a shade higher on Whites (2%) over the 2008 turnout and 1% lower on African-Americans. The deciding factor in Virginia will be the knife fight over turnout and Mitt Romney has met the challenge this year unlike Obama’s incredible advantage in this area last time so I’m comfortable with the direction Virginia is trending.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 4

6 Comments

  1. johnfisher
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You have the numbers reversed on VA — R 48; O 47

  2. housebroken dad
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Another good VA poll for Romney because like OH, at worst, I see a 50/50 split among D/R voters and I taking the rest. As long as he’s leading Indys, I’m smiling….

  3. Eric
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 1:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney is way ahead in Virginia, perhaps as much as 10 points. Conservatively, 4-7%.

    Bush won independents by 10 points in 2004. Obama won independents by 1 point in 2008. Romney leads with independents by 12 points in 2012.

    Bush won statewide by 8% in 2004.

    Some more info:
    Bush won independents by 10, Obama by 1 in 2008 = 11 point swing.
    R+5 party ID in Virginia in 2004. D+6 party ID in 2008…..11 point swing.
    Identical swings in independent support and party ID. Maybe just a coincidence, but I’m sure they are positively correlated.

    Independents went to Obama by 1 in 2008, going to Romney by 12 in 2012 = a 13 point swing.
    An equal 13 point swing in party ID would make Virginia R+7 in 2012.

    Not saying it will be R+7 in 2012, but anything showing more Democrats than Republicans is beyond the pale adsurd. Considering that Romney wins more of his base than Obama does his base and Romney wins independents and there are more Republicans than Democrats or at least even, then that indicates that Obama has no chance of winning Virginia if this poll is close to accurate with independents.

    Accordingly, I’ve moved Virginia from slight edge for Romney to Leans Romney.

  4. Anthony
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 2:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Totally anecdotal but there has been a surge in energy here since the debate. In my community at the top of Virginia, I’m seeing a slew of new Romney yard signs.

    • Dave Ped
      Posted October 15, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I live in NH and in the last two weeks, I have seen R/R yard signs showing up in a LOT of individual houses yards. There are also very large R/R signs in front of businesses. They started to pop up after the debate in force. I seriously see very few O signs and the only ones I have seen are in a public place like the side of a road at an intersection just put there by someone. The personal houses and businesses were put there by the property owners so that shows they went to the trouble to go get a sign.

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