Romney +1 in Florida — Gravis Marketing

The latest from Gravis Marketing shows Mitt Romney with a 1-point lead in Florida. Mitt Romney leads among Independents by 3-points 47 to 44.  He also has stronger support among Republicans garnering the vote 90 to 9 while President Obama has less support among democrats with supporter outnumbering crossovers 86 to 13.  Despite these results Romney still only nominally leads due to the party identification split. The party ID was D +2 (Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20).  In 2008 it was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23). This is a fairly aggressive turnout in favor of Obama with a turnout almost equal to 2008 which quite simply is not happening in 2012:

Mitt Romney holds a narrow 1-point lead over President Obama among Florida likely voters.
·         President Obama has a 7-point net negative job performance rating in Florida. 43 percent approve and 50 percent do not approve of his performance.
·         There is a strong gender gap as President Obama has a 4-point lead with women, while Governor Romney has a 9-point lead with men.
·         Mitt Romney leads with independents by a 3-point margin, 47 to 44 percent.

Gravis Marketing a non-partisan research firm, conducted a survey of 617 likely voters on October 13-14, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0 % and higher for subgroups.
For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 49
Other/Undecided 3


  1. Posted October 15, 2012 at 11:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    You need to fix your graphic

    • Posted October 15, 2012 at 11:56 am | Permalink | Reply

      The worst part is I knew it was wrong, went in, fixed something else and left the graphic wrong. Thanks for catching it guys

      • Vadim
        Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

        ARG has a couple of polls put this morning as well. A tie in Iowa (48:48) and Mitt up by a point in Virginia.

      • Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

        Thanks. Ran over and blogged them thanks to your tip

  2. Vadim
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink | Reply


    You chart has Obama with a 1 point lead.

  3. Eric
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Worst-case scenario for Florida for Romney is R+3. Romney is well-ahead in Florida. If Florida was this close with 29 Electoral Votes, then the candidates would be in Florida a TON. Florida barely gets any attention. That tells you all you need to know.

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