Obama +4 in Pennsylvania … still under 50% — Muhlenberg/Morning Call

President Obama maintains a slim but shrinking 4-point lead in Pennsylvania, 49 to 45.  This poll is consistent with the Susquehanna polls that cause so much controversy a couple weeks ago which is now forming a consensus that Pennsylvania is very much in play.  As a matter of fact, Ann Romney was stumping in the Keystone State today and said the exact same thing:

Ann Romney, campaigning in PA today, says “Pennsylvania is in play.”

— Sarah Huisenga (@SarahH_CBSNJ) October 15, 2012

As reported in the Morning Call blog:

After months of enjoying strong leads over their Republican challengers in Pennsylvania, President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey are leading their opponents by only a few points with three weeks until Election Day. Obama is up over Mitt Romney 49 percent to 45 percent when factoring in likely voters leaning toward one candidate, according to a new survey released Monday by The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College. While the presidential race tightening was somewhat expected, more stunning is the Senate matchup. Casey now leads Smith by just two points, 41 percent to 39 percent. As of August, in the same poll, Casey led Smith by 19. The dramatic drop off can only be attributed to Smith’s early effort on statewide television, depicting Casey as ineffective at a time when distrust in Washington is at its highest.

I included the Senate race portion because this may be a case of reverse coattails where a strong Senate challenger may be added some wind to the sails of a Romney campaign that has been understandably been focusing on the Ohio, Florida and Virginia’s of the world.

The internals are up and the party ID is D +5 (Dem 47, Rep 41, Ind 10). In 2008 party ID was D +7 (Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18) while in 2004 it was D +2 (Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20). So a very good split on party ID results in a close race, imagine that.

  • President Obama’s job approval is positive but below 50%, 47 Approve/46 Disapprove
  • The thoroughly job approval of the mediocre Governor dragging down the GOP in the state is 33 Approve/39 Disapprove
  • Mitt Romney’s favorables are almost dead even 44 Favorable/45 Unfavorable
  • Barack Obama is dead even on favorables 46/46
  • From those who are certain to vote fro a candidate Obama’s lead in only 3-poit 47 to 44
  • Demographics are aggressive in favor of Romney though: 87% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic.  In 2008 it was 81% White, 13% Black, 4% Hispanic.  It may turnout that way on election day due to changes in enthusiasm but that’s a big change.
For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 45
Other/Undecided 6


  1. damien
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    is this terry madonna’s group or is that susqeahanna…

    • Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Terry Madonna is Franklin & Marshall

      • damien
        Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

        franklin and marshall…have they put out a poll this time

  2. housebroken dad
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    How does the sample look?

    • Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I haven’t seen the raw data yet. Just that blog post.

    • damien
      Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      it might be like 2000 where we get close but lose barely…but right now anything that keeps obama working and bleeding in places he didnt think he would have to…helps us

  3. Posted October 15, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sample is 47% Dem, 42% GOP, 10% Indy, 2% other….looks pretty reasonable (maybe slight D lean but very slight), PA was +7 Dem in 2008 and +2 Dem in 2004….

  4. Al Dutko
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Very Interesting poll! I’d love to see the internals on this one. Not only is Romney competitive in PA, but if those numbers for the Senate seat in PA are accurate (Casey D 41 Smith 39 R), then the Casey camp must be sweating bullets. Especially with all those undecideds. A few months ago Casey was thought to be cruising to another term in this very reliably Blue State.

  5. SR
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 2:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I read somewhere that Rs are ahead in Penn with early/absentee voting. can someone confirm that?

  6. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    47% approval is a loser.

  7. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 16, 2012 at 7:08 am | Permalink | Reply

    Quinnipac joins the party with Obama up 4 from a D+8 sample.

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] Morning Call/Muhlenberg University: Obama +4 […]

  2. […] Morning Call/Muhlenberg University: Obama +4 […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: