President Obama maintains a slim but shrinking 4-point lead in Pennsylvania, 49 to 45. This poll is consistent with the Susquehanna polls that cause so much controversy a couple weeks ago which is now forming a consensus that Pennsylvania is very much in play. As a matter of fact, Ann Romney was stumping in the Keystone State today and said the exact same thing:
Ann Romney, campaigning in PA today, says “Pennsylvania is in play.”
— Sarah Huisenga (@SarahH_CBSNJ) October 15, 2012
As reported in the Morning Call blog:
After months of enjoying strong leads over their Republican challengers in Pennsylvania, President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey are leading their opponents by only a few points with three weeks until Election Day. Obama is up over Mitt Romney 49 percent to 45 percent when factoring in likely voters leaning toward one candidate, according to a new survey released Monday by The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College. While the presidential race tightening was somewhat expected, more stunning is the Senate matchup. Casey now leads Smith by just two points, 41 percent to 39 percent. As of August, in the same poll, Casey led Smith by 19. The dramatic drop off can only be attributed to Smith’s early effort on statewide television, depicting Casey as ineffective at a time when distrust in Washington is at its highest.
I included the Senate race portion because this may be a case of reverse coattails where a strong Senate challenger may be added some wind to the sails of a Romney campaign that has been understandably been focusing on the Ohio, Florida and Virginia’s of the world.
The internals are up and the party ID is D +5 (Dem 47, Rep 41, Ind 10). In 2008 party ID was D +7 (Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18) while in 2004 it was D +2 (Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20). So a very good split on party ID results in a close race, imagine that.
- President Obama’s job approval is positive but below 50%, 47 Approve/46 Disapprove
- The thoroughly job approval of the mediocre Governor dragging down the GOP in the state is 33 Approve/39 Disapprove
- Mitt Romney’s favorables are almost dead even 44 Favorable/45 Unfavorable
- Barack Obama is dead even on favorables 46/46
- From those who are certain to vote fro a candidate Obama’s lead in only 3-poit 47 to 44
- Demographics are aggressive in favor of Romney though: 87% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic. In 2008 it was 81% White, 13% Black, 4% Hispanic. It may turnout that way on election day due to changes in enthusiasm but that’s a big change.