Dead Heat in Iowa 48 to 48 — American Research Group

Haven’t seen a lot in Iowa recently but ARG comes to the rescue with a dead heat poll of the Hawkeye State, 48 to 48. The Party ID is D +1 (Dem 35, Rep 34, Ind 31) versus D +1 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33) in 2008 and R +2 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30) in 2004.  Although it matches the 2008 turnout we see in Iowa that wide swings in party affiliation don’t occur like in other states so it’s hard to take issue when they are off by 1 or 2 % at most. The male/female split is marginally more aggressive towards women but close enough to the 2008 split. Otherwise the numbers are pretty clean.  Good poll for Romney and another argument for the media talking heads to switch this state back to toss-up where it always was:

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 48
Other 1
Undecided 3


  1. Eric
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Most likely a pretty accurate poll for Iowa. Iowa will probably be around R+2 or R+3 on Election Day. Romney likely holds a very narrow lead in Iowa, but it’s close to a tossup.

  2. housebroken dad
    Posted October 15, 2012 at 12:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Yeah, no change in the Iowa absentee numbers from Friday. Difference of 68k D vs R in absentee requests and 53k D vs R in absentee received.

    • margaret
      Posted October 15, 2012 at 3:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      On October 29 2004, D was leading R in Iowa absentee votes received by 60K, and Bush won the next week!
      iowa is looking good IMHO. Of course this assumes that registered Dems voting absentee are going to vote for Obama and that’s now a big assumption, given the large momentum in Romney’s direction.

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