Obama +2 in Colorado — Gravis Marketing

Colorado remains hotly competitive with both candidates alternating leads in the polls.  The latest from Gravis Marketing shows President Obama with a 2.4-point lead 48.4% to 46.0%, with 5.6% of likely voters still undecided or voting for another candidate. The party ID was R +4 (Dem 28, Rep 32, Ind 40).  This compares to 2008 of R +1 (Dem 30, Rep 31, Ind 39) and 2004 R +9 (Dem 29, Rep 38, Ind 33). According to Gravis:

Gravis Marketing conducted a previous poll this month right after the first debate, which gave Romney a 49.4% to 45.9% advantage.  The difference between the most recent poll and the poll immediately following the debate (total time frame for that poll was 30 minutes after completion of the debate) is thought to be due to the initial debate reaction.  The most recent results indicate the debate bump, although still there, is moderating somewhat.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48.4
Mitt Romney 46.0
Other/Undecided 5.6

12 Comments

  1. Posted October 14, 2012 at 4:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The internals don’t make a lot of sense: 0bama approval 48.6 – Disapprove 42.1 – Approve; Better on managing $1 MI Romney wins 50.7 – 36.3; wrong track – 51.4% Right track – 38.3% – Here is the kicker 80.1% White 19.9% Other.

    • Posted October 14, 2012 at 4:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The race breakdown is pretty accurate. The other stuff is curious. Unfortunately I’m spending most of my time trying to figure out why the formatting is so screwed up. I can’t get the tables with the results centered and the table format is all wrong. WordPress screwed something up last week with the settings. It causes problems with tables and when I cut and paste anything. Beyond frustrating.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 14, 2012 at 4:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ve seen that elsewhere. About people trusting Romney with their money by double-digit margins. Just goes to show you that people will vote against their own financial interests over some identity or single social issue.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 4:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    On the RAND poll that Nate Silver is touting today. I think it’s pretty worthless to poll the same 3500 people over and over. But, the one thing that I do think it could show that’s useful is the momentum that occurs over time, so I think their ‘shift’ poll is of a little value:
    https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#shifts-between-candidates

    That’s a very accurate portrayal of the race to date.

  3. John
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 4:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I looked at the internals of the poll as well. The age breakdown doesn’t seem right…57% of voters 49 and under and 42% of voters 50 and above. Isn’t the actually more 50-50 or even the 50 and above age a tad more?

  4. zang
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 5:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Poll taken from October 5-11… Surveyusa has fresher data, showing R up by 1. Odd that Gravis is switching from the 2 day interview period to a 6 day poll.

  5. Dennis
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 6:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Why worry about the public polls? Read this: http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/secret-retirement-plans-does-obama-expect-to-lose/
    I wish I could believe it, but doubt Rasmussen’s public poll in Ohio is purely for public consumption.

  6. spottedreptile
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 8:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Indies seem a bit high, 40? That would be one way of siphoning off Romney votes.

  7. Pete
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Gravis Marketing have some very dodgy numbers in their polls.

    http://www.logarchism.com/2012/10/14/a-gravis-fraud/

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