Fun with Intrade — the Bursting of the Obama Bubble

Sean Davis Tweeted this out yesterday and now he has posted it on Redstate:

Pop quiz:  which of the below charts is for Obama’s 2012 election contract on Intrade, and which is for the 2001 Nasdaq bubble and subsequent burst?


  1. No Tribe
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 1:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Who “pre-screens” the debate questions in the townhall? Sounds like a teleprompter debate.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 1:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    DANG, I don’t like looking at that chart, cause I know I would have been sitting on a $10K grand gain had I been able to buy Romney at .20 when I pointed that out. Alas, our freedoms are too little here compared to the Irish.

    • MikeN
      Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      By the time you see a number and decide to bet it takes 5 days to get money in at least.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:10 pm | Permalink

        5 days? I tried, and it takes longer than that– at least it would for me. You can’t wire it directly from your bank, so you have to set up an offshore account. And for that, you need to go there and set it up, with a letter from your bank. Gone are the easy days of money laundering!

      • M.Remmerde
        Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

        You can wire directly from a US bank or brokerage (I did from a US based brokerage). And only takes about 1 business day.

        I wish I had done it just *one* day earlier, though. Would have rather been into Romney at 20% than the 28% average I did end up getting.

        As as someone who has been watching the Intrade markets very closely, I can tell you the most interesting thing about the pivot around the debate. Almost all of that first wave of price movement happened *before* the debate. Romney actually traded down about two points from the first 10 minutes of the debate to the end. The 25% to about 34% move happened during the day…Romney was right around 33-34% when Jim Lehrer said, “Good evening…”

        No conspiracy here, just the collective Wisdom of the Marketplace anticipating events rather than reacting to them.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 14, 2012 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

        Aw, I didn’t think about doing it through brokerage, thanks M. R.

  3. Posted October 14, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is why I think Romney will win Ohio, interesting

    • Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Notice that the massive Democratic turnout year of 2008 has been the only year in recent memory where a Democratic Presidential candidate has crossed 50% in Ohio. For a long time Ohio has preferred Republican executives. Only after scandal from the Taft administration in state and the dissatisfaction after 8 years of Bush did Ohio go over 50% for a Democrat in the Presidential race. And it seems most of the polls have him under 50% there now. Obama consistently polled above 50% in Ohio after mid-September last time.

  4. shane
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You know they are desperate when they are leaking internals and hyping Biden’s performance as some sort of major victory.

  5. No Tribe
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    On PPP, I imagine the statistical probability that they would find Obama ahead in nearly all of their polling, compared with the wider average which shows about being equal, is very low. About 6 weeks ago, I saw someone make a graph of PPP finding Obama with the lead, compared with all other pollsters. It was quite startling. All pollsters combined to show about 50-50 among Obama and Romney. PPP showed Obama leading in 20 out of 21 polls.

    Just in October, they have done 8 or 9 polls in battleground states, and only found 1 where Romney tied Obama, in NC. All the others, Obama is ahead. That is such a huge outlier compared with every other single polling outfit.

    Someone asked about seeing a poll without PPP. Easy to do at HuffPo, and the results are telling:

    Ohio– Obama leads Romney 45.7 – 45

  6. MikeN
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That said Romney is stubbornly below 40% despite leading in averages. Many people suspect it is due to rigging the relatively small InTrade market to create a psychological boost for Obama.

    Another possibility comes from looking at Ohio. Romney has maybe a 1/3 chance of winning the state. I’m not saying those are his chances, but rather that it is a reasonable position for Intrade bettors. Now what are Romney’s chances of losing the election even if he wins Ohio? He would need just one other state so it is likely he would win. However, Ohio’s Republican Party is strong and might deliver Ohio ahead of the national average. Nevada and Colorado have won victories for Democrats even with Republicans leading in polls. New Hampshire voted D 4 of the last 5, including W’s reelection. So you are left with Iowa or Wisconsin, which I think are reasonable wins to assume if you win Ohio. Plus there is the chance of losing Virginia and winning Ohio. So maybe a 10% chance Romney loses the election if he wins Ohio.

    Now what are the chances of a Romney win despite losing Ohio? Now you need maybe Wisconsin+Colorado+NH, or Wisconsin+Nevada+Iowa, or Colorado+Nevada+Iowa. It is reasonable to think Ohio is independent of Colorado, NH, Nevada, and maybe even Pennsylvania. With Obama’s attack ads, perhaps Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan can be considered partly independent of Ohio. That is, Romney could gain there without gaining in Ohio. Maybe we give Romney a 15% chance of winning the election if he loses Ohio.

    That adds up to a Romney victory chance of 1/3 to win Ohio*90% chance of winning presidency if he wins Ohio, + 2/3 chance of losing Ohio*15% chance without Ohio =

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      15% chance for Romney without Ohio seems about right for now. Alot depends on how much he invests, time and money, into Ohio vs the other states. He, the last week or 10 days, is going all-in on Ohio. He’s basically saying to Obama’s campaign, ‘lets make this all about Ohio’ and the Romney campaign thinks they can win it with that focus. We will know with the coming week, whether that continues to be the Romney strategy. I happen to like it the more I look into it. The benefits in early voting are there, along with being able to expand the market through smaller town events.

      Obama is being forced back into Ohio now, and Iowa. Wed the 17th, he’s in Iowa then Ohio. And on the 18th, in Ohio and Iowa, with Springsteen and Clinton. Romney’s not been in Iowa in a while, so that’s interesting. The state has been under-polled of late, so is probably in Romney’s column right now.

      • MikeN
        Posted October 14, 2012 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

        Obama never left Iowa. They spent more money in Rochester Minnesota, which can reach a few rural counties in Iowa, then they spent in North Carolina.
        Iowa makes for a nice firewall with Ohio.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 14, 2012 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

        Obama hasn’t been in Iowa since Sept 1st, a full 6 weeks ago. He wouldn’t be going back for two days this week if it were safe. That’s not a firewall.

      • MikeN
        Posted October 14, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

        Firewall doesn’t mean it’s safe, just where they are focusing to try and hold off a Romney flip. Highest percapita ad spending in the country.

    • M.Remmerde
      Posted October 14, 2012 at 2:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I doubt it is intentional rigging. It’s not a very liquid market, and is dominated by some deep pocket European folks. But it is a marketplace that is mis-pricing reality.

      There is a lot of international money on Intrade. In fact, if I had to guess, it might be well more than 50% of the trading is from non-US traders. And you’ll notice a tremendous leftist tilt to the Intrade forums and comment boards. I think a lot of these folks living in the European media bubble (most Europeans can get only CNN among the US news networks) have no idea just how much trouble Obama is in.

      Europe lefties are on Intrade, ready to hand you free money. You can buy Romney to win North Carolina at 74.5 right now. That should be trading at least 95%. And 100/74.5 is a pretty nice 33+% return to get in less than a month.

      • Eric
        Posted October 14, 2012 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

        I’m not a gambler, but if I was, I’d buy all sorts of contracts on Intrade for Romney to win. It’s about 97% that Romney carries North Carolina. Obama hasn’t been there since the convention. Romney’s been there once.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 14, 2012 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

        There will be better buys about a week from now. The media is going to bandwagon a ‘Obama is back’ and ‘it’s done’ here in about a week.

  7. lost democrat
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 8:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney’s internal polling is probably showing him leading by about 4 points in Ohio. JeffR is right Ohio tends to lean toward Republican especially for governors. . McCain got 47% of the Ohio voters despite a huge MSM pro-Obama bias, a bad Bush economy and a bad campaign by McCain. Obama just can’t repeat what happened in 2008. +D6 party id advantage in Ohio in 2008 and Obama wins. Now party ID , it should be about even between both parties this Ohio. Obama is deep trouble in Ohio.

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