Romney +4 in New Hampshire — American Research Group

The latest from American Research Group shows Romney with a 4-point lead in New Hampshire, 50 to 46. The party ID in the survey was R +6 (Dem 29, Rep 35, Independent 36). In 2008 it was also D +2 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and in 2004 it was R+7 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44). A fairly aggressive turnout in favor of Romney but at least not outside the 2004 to 2008 outer bounds.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 50
Other 1
Undecided 3

Interview dates: October 9-11, 2012
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time


  1. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 11:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    Holy cow! The hits keep coming. How’s Nate Silver holding up? Is his model still showing 80% likelihood of Obama win?

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      His posts keep getting later and later into the night before he finally gets one up. He’s not looking good.

  2. housebroken dad
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Latest Iowa numbers:

    Dems 187,655 (47.47%)
    Reps 119,434 (30.21%)
    Inds 87,911 (22.24%)
    Oth 353 (negligible)

    Dems 110,053 (53.33%)
    Reps 57,341 (27.79%)
    Inds 38,801 (18.80%)
    Oth 148 (negligible)

    • mdsanders
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Less than 60k difference between Reps and Dems. That’s a good thing, right?

      • housebroken dad
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

        I believe so. See if Adrian has any comment.

      • Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

        CORRECTION: just got info from Adrian Gray that I was reading his info wrong. He is tracking ballot requests, not submissions. Therefore the differential is 68,221 which is still outside the goal of getting it under 60k. Sorry for the confusion.

        Correct. The GOP is gunning for at least under 60k which was the difference in 2004 when Bush carried Iowa. Today thanks to “housebroken dad” we see the difference is 57, 712 [again, this is the wrong difference]. In 2008 by election day Obama had 93,118 more early votes cast by Democrats than Republicans. Note: For simplicity sake we just assume each side gets 90% of their own party vote but eating into your opponent’s base for crossover votes is a way to offset the advantages/disadvantages in these figures.

        Obama won Iowa by 146,561 votes in 2008. Based on today’s numbers alone we see the GOP has cut down Obama’s advantage by 24% before factoring votes switching parties, Independents breaking for Romney at a higher rate than McCain, etc.

        These are very good signs since the democrats always start out with a huge early voting advantage but the GOP closed strong in 2010 and looks like they may do so again in 2012.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

        Really good as Keith points out. Also, was the only bright spot that Dems could point to. As OH, CO, NV, FL number all showing better Republican.

  3. jvnvch
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I doubt Romney will need New Hampshire, but a little gravy won’t hurt.

    • WillBest
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Assuming FL, NC, VA, CO is for Romney and MI PA stay Obama then Romney can win with
      1) Ohio
      2) WI + 1 of {NV, IA, NH}
      3) NV + IA + (ME 2nd or NH)
      4) NV + IA with the republicans maintaining control on the House.

      Obama on the other hand can only win with
      1) OH + WI + 1 of {NH, NV, IA}
      2) OH + NH + NV + IA

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

        Romney will win Ohio.

  4. bman77
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    interpretation of latest Iowa numbers?

  5. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    On 10/3 the Iowa Absentee returns were this…

    Dems 43,826 (63.13%)
    Reps 13,387 (19.28%)
    Ind 12,151 (17.50%)

    Looks like we are edging closer! Heres the 2008 splits…

    2008 (IA-50% early voters were dems; 28% were repubs). 2010 (IA-44% early voters were dems; 38% were repubs)

  6. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    And William Jefferson…Nate Silver is hanging in there….he STILL has Obama “percentage” at 66 for Obama and 34 for Romney. He must be a bitter clinger!

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