Romney +3 in Nevada — Dane & Associates

Romney takes the lead in Nevada for the first time this cycle 49 to 46:

With the election less than one month away, Mitt Romney leads by 3 points over President Obama in the key battleground state of Nevada. Just prior to the debate in Colorado both candidates increased their presence in Nevada. Mitt Romney opened offices in Hispanic areas of Las Vegas while President Obama personally delivered pizza to his volunteers. Obama is now suffering the fallout of last week’s debate, which is demonstrated in a recent poll conducted by Dane & Associates. Just a week ago, this race was a dead heat, but now after the debate, Romney has moved to 49% to Obama’s 46%. “It looks like the voters are making up their minds here in Nevada ,” says Tony Dane president of Dane & Associates. “Only 3 percent are undecided and 2% are voting for 3rd party candidates.” … This poll has a 3%+- margin of error … Dane & Associates uses automated polling methodology, similar to that of Rasmussen Reports. Since 1997 Dane & Associates have been conducting internal polls for candidates of all levels.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 49
Other 2
Undecided 3


  1. M.Remmerde
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    And am I reading the crosstabs wrong, or was this really D+7?

    • Posted October 12, 2012 at 6:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      You’re reading it correctly. It was D +7 but there’s a lot funny in that poll. Males outnumber females 52 to 48 when it is typically 52 to 48 in favor of females. Hispanics were 20% when they were only 15% last time. Asians were also 11% when they were 3% last time.

      • Posted October 12, 2012 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

        Did they poll Washoe Co? 😉

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

        Sounds good!

  2. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 6:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    are the polls showing romney leading reflect conventional wisdom and so they’re adjusting the outcomes to meet the expectation of romney ahead, like they showed obama ahead before the debate?

    • Posted October 12, 2012 at 7:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

      They don’t adjust the outcomes but they sure are adjusting a lot of other factors. First I believe they are calling a more appropriate cross-section of voters. Usually the pollsters have lists of voters by zip codes. One zip code will be heavily Democrat while another zip code will be heavily Republican. My theory is they were calling heavy Democrat areas which is why when they re-weight the polls by age, race, etc their results showed too many Democrats surveyed.

      Since the debate the results have had more balanced party IDs which to me means they are more honestly selecting more balanced groups of people to poll.

      What they are also doing however is changing the racial makeup of the outcomes and always heavily in favor of Obama. Marist was one of the more guilty of this but they are not alone.

  3. Tim
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 7:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If Nevada goes red, I want to see Harry Reid’s disgusting face.

  4. M.Remmerde
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Amazing how it’s beginning to look like Obama might now be the one drawing to an inside straight. In the case he loses OH, he must grab all of NH + IA + NV +CO + WI to get to 272.

    There’s now a *very* plausible RR path to winning without Ohio: NH+IA+CO+NV+VA (plus FL NC of course), that gets RR to 273.

    • Stephen
      Posted October 13, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink | Reply

      Actually, he doesn’t necessarily need to win NH. IA+CO+NV+VA and FL & NC makes a 269-269 tie. GOP is expected to hold the House so it means Romney will win. The only problem with that if the Dems hold the Senate, we might have Biden as VP despite Romney winning the presidency. (Senate votes for VP in case of a tie.)

  5. Tim
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 10:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I wish Ohio was trending toward RR like VA and FL. Without Ohio, the odds of a RR victory drop significantly.

    • jeff
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 10:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      My feeling is that if RR wins both FL and VA he will most likely win OH. because of demographics and historical trends. And it appears that FL and VA are strongly trending towards RR.

  6. jvnvch
    Posted October 13, 2012 at 3:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    McCain lost Nevada by a substantial margin (-12.5%) in 2008, so Romney has his work cut out for him there, but the very high unemployment rate and home foreclosure rate, etc., in the state should make it easier to flip than some states the GOP lost by less in the last election, one would think.

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