Romney +1 in Colorado — Denver Post/SurveyUSA

Another poll showing the race neck-and-neck, this time in Colorado. The latest from SurveyUSA and the Denver Post show Mitt Romney with a 1-point lead 46 to 45 in a 3-way race.  Head-to-head with no 3rd party Romney remains in the lead 48 to 47.  Clearly Mitt Romney transformed the race with the incredible first debate performance.  The major question is whether he can continue that momentum through election day.  The major downer for President Obama despite staying within the margin of error in most polls?  His support is locked in around the high-40s in most every poll and it rarely moves.  An incumbent isn’t going to get over 50% absent a dramatic change in the election over these last few weeks:

Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney pulled one percentage point ahead of President Barack Obama among Colorado voters in a new Denver Post poll released Friday, though the two are still effectively tied. Romney now leads Obama 48 to 47, with a four-point margin of error in the poll that surveyed 614 likely voters by cell phone and home numbers Tuesday and Wednesday. The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA for The Post. Romney’s one-point advantage represents a small shift from The Post poll conducted five weeks ago when Obama had a one-point, 47-46, advantage. Asked about a matchup that included Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson — who is on the ballot in Colorado — respondents still picked Romney over Obama by a single percentage point, or 46 to 45. Johnson took 2 percent of the vote in The Post poll, and 5 percent of voters say they are still undecided.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 46
Gary Johnson 2
Undecided 5


  1. Pete
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Incumbent at 45. Not good. Not good at all.

    • M.Remmerde
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yep, forty-somethings all over the place for team O. He’s going to need one heckuva October Surprise.

      • Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

        Three more weeks until october surprise friday.

  2. Eric
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Anything about the sample or which way independents are going in that poll?

    • Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nothing. I looked around the SurveyUSA site also.

      • Eric
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

        Thanks. I did too and couldn’t find anything. Maybe it’s not up yet. I always look that stuff up for every poll.

  3. Eric
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 4:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Looks like the party ID is 34% Republican, 34% Democrat, 30% Independent. No word on how independents said they would vote. That’s a very, very favorable draw for Democrats in Colorado. 2004 was Rep+9 and 2008 was Rep+1 in CO. This sample is more favorable than even 2008. Romney is well ahead in Colorado.

  4. Aaron H
    Posted October 14, 2012 at 3:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not counting on CO for sure. Romney may pull a Ken Buck and lose on the last day. Further, CO is represented by Dems all over, including the influential Governor’s office. Gonna need better numbers than +1% for me to be too confident.

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