Obama +7 in Michigan — Rasmussen

The Great lakes State will still be a tough one to turn for Team Romney but we know they are trying.  The latest from Rasmussen Reports in Michigan shows a sizable lead for President Obama at  52 to 45:

President Obama continues to earn over 50% of the vote in Michigan, but his lead over Mitt Romney has narrowed a bit this month. The latest Ramussen Reports national telephone survey finds 52% of Likely Voters in Michigan support the president, while 45% give their vote to Romney. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Michigan was conducted on October 11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 52
Mitt Romney 45
Other 1
Undecided 1


  1. No Tribe
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Went from 14% to 7% Obama lead with Detroit News poll, went from 12% to 7% Obama lead with Rasmussen.

    Iowa is going to be the next state we start seeing polls in, which result in tipping the state to Romney. Ohio could be as well. Those two tilt Romney, and he continues to hold a +1% lead nationally, and we will get a whole slew of shift-momentum stories.

  2. Posted October 12, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Doesn’t it seem like PA would be a little more friendly to Romney than Michigan? I wonder if they will fight for it.

  3. damien
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 2:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    rasmussen seems to be splashing cold water these days on the mi and pa mania…but i just wonder if romney/ryan see something different…i doubt they would be there if they saw 7…they seem to be in mi alot but not pa….

  4. Eric
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 2:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    There have been 2 visits to Michigan in the past week. One by Paul Ryan and one by Ann Romney. That’s not much.
    In Pennsylvania, there have been 7 visits by Jill Biden. Not much considering that it’s a VP’s wife, but still that’s more attention than Michigan got. The campaigns are also not spending any money on ads in Michigan or Pennsylvania. Some outside superPACs have invested some money in Michigan, but not the actual campaigns.

    Michigan has moved to the left over the years with so many good, hard-working conservatives leaving the state. It’s winnable, but it’s not anywhere close to a tipping point state. There are just too many Democrats in Detroit.

  5. jvnvch
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney would be wise to concentrate his efforts on states lost by McCain by less than ten in 2008, such as Ohio (-4.59%), Virginia (-6.29%), Colorado (-8.95%), Iowa (-9.54%), and New Hampshire (-9.65%), rather than on Michigan (-16.47%).

    • WillBest
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Candidate time is the most important resource, and Biden is in Wisconsin today. That isn’t a good sign.

      What I don’t get is Obama was in Ohio on Tuesday and Florida on Thursday but did jack MWF this week and doesn’t appear to be doing anything this weekend. Why is he wasting these day? Is he actually going to be doing debate prep this weekend

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

        He knows he’s losing and is bored. Probably watching ESPN HD.

      • jvnvch
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

        McCain lost Wisconsin (-13.91) by less than he lost Michigan. Same with Pennsylvania (-10.35).

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

        Yea, it’s perplexing. And they only have him going to these mini-super events at College stadiums ever since the debate. I think it’s because they expected to be in a very very different place right now– expecting to be able to run out the clock, and this was all they had planned. They scuttled whatever was planned Friday through next Monday, so he can debate practice in Williamsburg VA till next Tue’s NY debate. Cause yea, other than fundraising in California, all he’s done since the last debate is 5 events on 3 days.

      • Jon
        Posted October 12, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

        The things about those states. Romney has them. He needs more paths to 270 than Ohio

  6. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’d really hate to lose this state 51-49 on election day but it isn’t a necessity so oh well.

  7. Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney is campaigning in Michigan and Pennsylvania for two important reasons….momentum and it drives a spear throught he heart of the democrat base.

    Obama smoked these two states 4 years ago…and he is fighting for them this year? Everytime Romney pops up in these states, what does it do to the hardcore base, the pundit, US? Makes us go “Holy God are these two states winnable?” That mere questions helps drive that enthusiasm for Republicans not just in Mich and Penn but across the country and depresses the democrats. If lazy democrats look at the polls and start think this race is over, they won’t bother to show up. If you have those who follow but not intricately and they start to see their state (Mich and Penn) show up on the battleground talk….that little L word starts to creep slowly into their brain…and if it continues then it continues to “what’s the point, he’s done”

    So quick stops in those two states, don’t hurt they just help fan the flames….

    • jeff
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 4:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I have the distinct feeling that Rasmussen has been underpolling Rs for some reason. I read a theory that he wants to make the race as close as possible to increase sales at least until the very last days before the election.

  8. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 6:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What is it, 3-4 polls put it within a couple of %? So maybe Ras is an outlier this time, although if the true margin is 4-5% then all polls agree within MoE.

    I still maintain that if Ohio cracks, Romney can run over the top of Obama here and PA.

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