Battleground State Maine? The Electoral Vote the Could Decide the Race

When you look at the competitive nature of so many Battlegrounds, the chances of an electoral tie between the two candidates is probably higher this year than at any time in the last century.  What gets lightly covered though are the states where it is not “winner take all” like Maine and Nebraska who carved out an electoral votes by congressional districts where a candidate can steal the vote in a state that otherwise votes for his opponent.  Barack Obama did that in Nebraska in 2008 stealing 1 electoral vote in the Omaha area.  This time around Omaha looks ever more safe to vote along with the red state of Nebraska but Maine has a rogue electoral vote that may flip to Mitt Romney.  Thanks for the eagle eyes of perdogg in our comments section, we see that Mitt Romney is actually leading in the 2nd Congressional district of Maine:

According to a new poll shared exclusively with POLITICO, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in a congressional district in Maine — raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote in a deep blue state. The live-call poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of NMB Research and provided to POLITICO by American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio, shows Obama winning statewide 48 percent to 44 percent. That result already puts Romney in a surprisingly competitive position in a nominally blue state. But in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.

The second congressional district, encompassing the northern and western part of the state, is largely rural and overwhelmingly white — groups that Obama has never done well among. During redistricting, the Republican legislature also shifted two towns — Waterville and Winslow — that went heavily for Obama in 2008 from the second congressional district into the first — giving the GOP ticket a boost by removing two population centers from the district.

The poll surveyed 500 statewide likely voters, polled October 7-8 — giving the poll a margin of error of about plus or minus 4 percent.

7 Comments

  1. Posted October 12, 2012 at 9:44 am | Permalink | Reply

    Huh. The report first says that Maine is “deep blue” and then goes on to say it is “nominally blue” – yet Romney is within the margin of error.

  2. Posted October 12, 2012 at 9:49 am | Permalink | Reply

    Thanks Keith. UC Boulder predicts ME-2 will go for Romney-Ryan

  3. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 11:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    This is probably accurate. In 2008, Obama did 3 points worse in CD-2 than he did statewide, whereas McCain did 3 points better. The latest RAsmussen poll for Maine had Obama at 52% for the state. So, if 2012 voting trends were the same as 2008, he would be around 49%.

  4. No Tribe
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is big for the 269-269 scenarios, better to win with 270. So potentially huge.

    There is only 1 or 2, 268 scenarios, where this would tilt it to 269-269. For instance, Romney wins Ohio but loses Virginia, and also wins Nevada or Iowa to get to 268.

    • mdsanders
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Also, if Romney loses Ohio and takes Virginia, all he would need is Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada with the 1 extra in Maine. Not bad…

  5. damien
    Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    48-44? lets get the whole state!!!…but one is better than none

  6. Posted October 12, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    i would so rather this not be a 269-269 election…because it will be 2000 all over again and the calls of the stolen election, racism, etc. I would rather one side or the other win outright

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