Romney +7 in Florida [Not a Typo] — Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald [Mason-Dixon]

The latest from Florida continues to confirm the trends we were seeing,  Romney has opened some daylight between himself and the President in the Sunshine State.  The latest from a consortium of media outlets in South Florida show Mitt Romney with a 7-point lead 51 to 44. Underneath the top-line is more ugliness for Obama with Romney LEADING among Hispanics 46 to 44.  Three things about this: 1) Florida’s Hispanic population is heavily Cuban who trend Republican, 2) Obama only won this Florida demo 57 to 42 in 2008, and 3) pretty smart people saw this coming.  All-in-all great news for Team Romney in this Registered Voters poll heading into tonight’s Vice President debate:

Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance last week has dramatically altered the presidential race in Florida, with Mitt Romney opening up a decisive 7 percentage point lead, according to a new Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll. The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a “bad night” at the first debate.

The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate. “There’s no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners.

The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 8-10 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald and Central Florida News 13. The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 44
Mitt Romney 51
Other 2
Undecided 4


  1. Ranger375
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink | Reply


  2. Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    7 point lead for Romney seems a bit high, but there is no doubt Romney now has some kind of lead in FL, and the momentum in FL. It will be absolutely fascinating to see what team Obama does about FL. Does Obama keep appearing in FL, and keep spending money in FL? Does Obama do a slow retreat out of FL to save resources for other swing-states? I guarantee Obama wont just suddenly and completely abandon FL. The press would be brutal for Obama if the president completely bails on FL.

  3. Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Get a load of this – Poll Shows Romney Leading Obama among Jews

  4. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Someone on Free Republic posted a tweet from Michigan to the effect that Obama was shutting down office. That can’t be right, can it?

    • Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I am hearing the same thing about Obama in MI, but it’s not what you think. Obama may be shutting down shop in MI not because Obama will lose MI, but because Obama cannot spare the resources to fight for a state where he has a small, but real lead. Obama may be diverting money and resources to his firewalls, mainly OH.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

        Didn’t he raise 181 million last month? How much is he pouring into Ohio?

      • Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

        It’s still very good news but greymarch is correct. Obama had only a small footprint in Michigan to begin with and the reality is if he loses Michigan he will have already lost the election so what’s the difference between losing 287 – 247 but winning Michigan or pulling resources, risk losing Michigan, and end up losing 303-231. The margin is irrelevant. the good sign is shutting down Michigan is an admission their alleged “blue wall” is crumbling and they need reinforcements.

      • Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

        0bama is underperforming in Michigan from FR

  5. Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Plouffe said Obama has a 1 or 2 point lead in FL? HAHAHAHA! That means Romney is winning FL by 5. Campaign managers NEVER TELL THE TRUTH regarding their internal polls.

    Obama now has two firewalls left until election day…the 2nd debate, and Ohio. Obama’s team will heavily depend on Obama making a big comeback with the second debate, and Obama’s team will assume the election is theirs as long as Obama holds onto Ohio.

    Romney does well next week in the 2nd debate, and the first of the two Obama firewalls comes crumbling down.

  6. damien
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    it does seem a bit high esp with 4 u/d…which would mean romney wins florida by close to double digits… no….he wins but not that guess is romney 52/47/1

  7. damien
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    on national review “campaign spot” today..a romney guy says hispanics in colorado and florida are going to romney

  8. Eric
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney is well ahead in Florida. They’re only spending money in Florida because it’s worth so many electoral votes. If it were a small state, they would have already let it go.

    In 2008, Florida was about 5 points more Republican than the national vote. A 7 point lead for Romney in Florida is consistent with about a 2 point lead nationally, which is what the national polls are telling us.

    This is just one of the rare polls that is weighted correctly to actual REAL demographics in REAL elections, not some fantasy election of David Plouffe.

    • jeff
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      BO knows that Florida is now a tough nut to crack but cant appear to be jumping ship there for fear of alarming his supporters. So he will still devote some resources there. interestingly a poll that just came out by Mclaughlin a well respected pollster now shows Romney with a 7 point lead in VA. Indeed very bad news for BO.

      • William Jefferson Jr.
        Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

        That VA poll would confirm what Suffolk was seeing on the ground.

  9. M.Remmerde
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So much for Nate Silver’s assessment that Romney’s bounce has settled and will begin to fade. This not some convention bounce that inevitably fades. This is late deciders…deciding.

    This could continue to accelerate right into election day (and into other states). Maybe this could turn into 1980 yet.

  10. Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:56 pm | Permalink | Reply


  11. Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney up 7 in Virginia, new poll release. R+0, a push. Allen up 3.

    • jeff
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 7:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If hes ahead in VA and Fl. bY 7 hes probably ahead in OH by 4 or 5.

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Confirms what We Ask America was seeing in the Allen race. Things are changing rapidly.

    • Evan3457
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 7:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      McLaughlin is a Republican pollster, I think, so tread cautiously with that particular poll. As to the main poll of this thread….boo-yah!

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 8:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not a push, just a huge uptick in R’s answering polls, and D’s not. WAA found the same thing in VA this week.

  12. jvnvch
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 7:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Confirmation Paleologos of Suffolk knew what he was talking about in Florida. I don’t doubt him in North Carolina and Virginia, either.

  13. mdr1972
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live around Richmond and it’s all Romney everywhere, same for the Hampton Roads area.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 8:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I can’t believe it but in NoVA it’s even in signs in my driving through the neighborhoods. In my neighborhood, which is really strong Dem middle class, there is only one sign up so far– Romney. Last time, after Palin, 4 people had McCain sign, and there were about a dozen Obama ones. Nothing on Obama yet.

  14. Posted October 11, 2012 at 7:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live in a swing county in Florida, Pinellas (Tampa Bay area, St. Petersburg and Clearwater are in my county – the smallest county geographically in the state and the most densely populated), so the movement is very clear here. It’s been noticeable since the debate. The Romney bumper stickers, the yard signs – and the people pouring in to volunteer. Prior to the debate, a lot of people were just against Obama. Since the debate, I’ve seen a clear shift to pro-Romney.

    Here in Florida, Mitt Romney is no longer the guy a lot of people feel stuck with – he’s the guy they’re glad to have. That makes a huge difference. Just look at the massive rallies here this past weekend. Over 6,000 in downtown St. Pete during RUSH HOUR ON A FRIDAY. Ever notice how few people go down to St. Pete to see the Rays? People in this area do not like going to St. Pete often, but he drew a big crowd. 12-15K elsewhere in the state as well. Then look at those huge Ohio rallies. 7,000 people in a rural area? You don’t see these kind of crowds when it’s just about not liking the incumbent. Ann Romney was right, all people needed to see was who Romney truly was and they’d fall for the guy.

    We are confident in Florida and the hints from people in the campaign have been that the internal polls show a lead of over 5 points. There’s also been reports of diminished staffing in Obama’s offices throughout the state. It’d be an embarrassment if he pulled out completely, but the thought inside the Romney camp that I’ve heard is that Obama’s campaign is about ready to concede the state.

    But let’s look at Florida. All of our elected executive officers are Republican for the first time in state history. The GOP controls 2/3 of both the state house and state senate. Our US House delegation is dominated by Republicans. A good GOP candidate will usually win in Florida and the state has actually been shifting to the right.

    I am from Ohio originally (Cleveland area) and have been hearing good things from family up there and good things through the campaign grapevine.

    It is my belief that Mitt is in control of this race now. He needs to remain aggressive and avoid any major gaffe, but he really needs to keep being who he is. I think that’s become so much easier now that Tagg has apparently taken on so much in the campaign. Mitt’s family knows what a winner he is. America is FINALLY finding it out after the political pros have wanted to put handcuffs on him.

    I remember back in 2008 when Glenn Back was still on Headline News, he had Romney on and spoke on his radio show about it the next day. The interview was good, but it was a standard political fare. Being a CNN network, most of Beck’s staff and crew were liberals. I’ve never forgotten how Beck said Romney changed when the cameras were off after the show and talked off the record. His whole production staff and crew saw the candid discussion and were in awe of Romney. They saw his compassion, his concern for the country, his grasp of the issues, and how genuine he was. And even the libs after that said that Romney should be President.

    You can’t fake character and conviction. I have no doubt that Romney is not in this for himself, but is doing this for his family and his country. His character of service and self reliance is in line with our Founders. America is now realizing it.

    • spottedreptile
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 8:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wonderful comment there Jeff. You articulated perfectly the difference between the Mitt we see publicly and the Mitt behind the scenes. The difference to me is that Mitt is no longer a Republican governor in a blue state, he has the freedom to be himself now, and he is indeed very impressive when speaking from his heart.

      “Mitt Romney is no longer the guy a lot of people feel stuck with – he’s the guy they’re glad to have.” THIS is the big narrative change from the debate, as much as it is about Obama’s downfall. It is a tidal wave now for Romney, and it won’t be stopped.

      • Posted October 11, 2012 at 8:39 pm | Permalink


        I have a lot of friends who did not like Romney earlier this year that I defended him against who have turned around. I’ve asked a lot of those complaining about his Massachusetts record – what else could he have done? I think the fact that he was able to get ANY concessions from a legislature that could override any veto is astounding. The Democrats didn’t need Mitt Romney to shove an agenda through. But they worked with Mitt because Romney is a leader. Remember that Reagan got stuff done with a Democrat controlled Congress for the most part, with the Senate flipping only during his first two years, I believe (could be wrong there) and he did it because he led.

        I’ve been pro-Romney since 2007 when I read Hugh Hewitt’s book on him. A man who has made it a career of finding solutions, a man who has been extremely successful and made a lot of people lots of money (teachers, firefighters, scholarships, police officers, etc), a man who also has conviction. A cut throat businessman does not shut down the business office and get everyone down to NYC to help look for a young lady who is lost. So many would just trust to the police and maybe send some money, but staying open is job one. Not for Romney. Turning around companies (including the one he started – which a remarkable story by itself), turning around states, turning around the olympics. When you consistently find solutions, it is no fluke (Sandra or otherwise).

        I knew back in 2007 that Mitt Romney was the leader who could get us on the path back to American prosperity and fiscal sanity. He is a leader and I firmly believe that in 20 years we will speak of the Romney revolution as we see our debt dwindle, our liberty increase, our Federal Gov’t shrink, and our military a strong protector of freedom everywhere.

    • Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:17 am | Permalink | Reply

      I am in the same county and have noticed the same thing!! Our office has been leading the state in door knocks, phone calls, and other metrics multiple times. The story of this election will be how the Romney ground op outmaneuvered the 0bama op and beat them at their own game!

  15. No Tribe
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 8:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    BOOM. A pollster tells the truth.

    • shane
      Posted October 12, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink | Reply

      won or lose for Obama the media will claim FL, OH, MI, PN, VI, WIS, NEV, CO were all racist vote suppression. Racist racist racist will be all we hear

2 Trackbacks

  1. By Romney +7 in Florida [Not a Typo] on October 11, 2012 at 6:43 pm

    […] poll out of Florida shows continued strength from Romney being into the final weeks of the campaign. A […]

  2. […] the two candidates in Florida we’ve been talking about recently.  Mitt Romney is sporting a 4-point lead 51 – 47, slightly lower than yesterday’s Mason-Dixon 7-point lead but a nice lead nonetheless: Mitt […]

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