Romney +1 in Ohio — Gravis Marketing

Ohio continues to be a back-and-forth struggle with the latest from Gravis Marketing showing Mitt Romney leading by 1-point, 46 to 45 with 9% going for Undecided/Other:

Party ID is D +6 (Dem 36.4, Rep 30.5, Ind 33.1)
2008 was D +8 (Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30)
2004 was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25)

From October 6th through October 10th, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, conducted a survey of 1,594 registered voters in the Ohio, of which 1,313 indicated they would likely vote.  The questions covered the presidential and senate elections, among others.  The poll has a margin of error of about 2.7%.  A full list of questions is given on page 5.  Overall, among just likely voters, Romney leads Obama by a 45.9% to 45.1% margin.  When looking at the entire registered voter population, Obama holds the advantage by 46.3% to 44.8%.  The following page contains a time series of the presidential race since the beginning of September.  This is the first time since the convention bounce that Romney has held the lead.

Candidate Percent
Barack Obama 45.1
Mitt Romney 45.9
Undecided/Other 9.0%


  1. damien
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 11:23 am | Permalink | Reply

    9.0 u/d?…i wonder if u/d always break against the incumbant holds true

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t understand RCP’s method of including some pollsters, and not others, does anyone?

    Take UPI:

    Telephone poll, LV’s, second poll out. Good results for Romney too, went from down 46-48 to up 49-46 among LV’s.

  3. No Tribe
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Getting rid of Internet polls shows a 2% lead for Romney nationally:!estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=ipsosreuters-web,angusreid,zogby-internet,yougoveconomist,jz-analytics,politico-penn-schoen-berland

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