Obama +2 in Nevada — Suffolk University/KSNV

The latest from Suffolk University, who controversially announced they will stop polling North Carolina, Florida and Virginia because they believe those states are locked in for Romney, has the race neck-and-neck in Nevada.  President Obama leads by +2, 47 to 45 with 6% Undecided

President Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 2 points in Nevada (47 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided), according to a Suffolk University/KSNV poll of likely voters in that swing state.  The poll is well within the survey’s 4.4 percent margin of error.   “After a strong debate performance, Mitt Romney is within striking distance of President Obama in Nevada,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.  “However, Obama’s big lead in Clark County – the state’s largest – has enabled his campaign to run up the score.  In Washoe County, the results closely align with the statewide numbers.”  Obama led 50-42 in Clark County and 47-43 in Washoe County.  However, in the remaining Nevada counties, Romney led 63 percent to 30 percent.  The Suffolk University/KSNV-Nevada poll includes all four presidential candidates who qualified for the Nevada ballot.  Independent Virgil Goode and Libertarian Gary Johnson polled 1 percent each.

Interestingly they gave you the two big County votes for Clark County and Washoe County.  We’ll go to the Nevada expert Jon Ralston for the takeaways:

The internals here show Obama only leading in Clark County by 8 points, which seems unlikley — he needs to win by double digits. He is still ahead because the survey shows he is ahead in Washoe by 4. If he wins Washoe by 4, he will almost certainly win the state.

This is a registered voter poll with party ID D +8 (Dem 41, Rep 33, Ind 23).  Not enough Independents in the survey.  In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38 Rep 30, Ind 32) and in 2004 it was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).  I’m going to stop blogging registered voter polls.  It’s a waste for any organization to do those at this juncture.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 45
Gary Johnson 1
Virgil Goode 1
Undecided 6

Quick addendum on Suffolk University polls:

 

5 Comments

  1. No Tribe
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 9:34 am | Permalink | Reply

    So, the RAND poll is actually predicting that Obama wins the white vote today:

    https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#results-by-respondents-characteristics

    And still, Obama only leads by 2%

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 9:38 am | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s the California:

    The poll data released Wednesday showed Obama 53%, Romney 39%, in California. Obama carried the Golden State by 24 points in 2008, so the poll found Obama is now running 10 points weaker than he ran 4 years ago. Among Independents, Obama led by 14 in September, but now trails by 9 in October, a 23-point right turn among the most coveted voters. One explanation, based on the poll data: The number of Romney supporters who said they were voting “for Mitt Romney” as opposed to “against Barack Obama” is way up, month over month.

    http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2012/10/10/cbs-5-poll-romney-gains-8-points-on-faltering-obama-in-california/

  3. damien
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 10:31 am | Permalink | Reply

    virgil goode is not getting one percent…so just make it obama plus 1

  4. Posted October 11, 2012 at 10:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    In 2008 0bama won Washoe Co by 12.5%. If he is winning by only 4% in Washoe, then…..queue Dandy Don.

  5. No Tribe
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Green candidate is not on the ballot in NV. Big fail.

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