NBC/WSJ/Marist Make In-kind Contribution to Obama Re-Elect Efforts in Ohio, Florida and Virginia

I’ll go to my grave saying these have been consistently some of the worst polls for accuracy and reliability of the election season.  In one breath NBC and other media analysts will tell us the entire electorate is locked in and has been for months  due to the exorbitant ad spending and saturation of the limited markets. In the next breath they will tell that the party IDs of these polls with gaudy Democrat turnout advantages are accurate because they reflect the mood of the voter (i.e. in a D +10 sample in a Battleground state, that just means the state is trending overwhelmingly Democrat often ahead of the 2008 record levels).  Then if we were to buy into their explanation, ahead of the first debate mind you, dramatic swaths of previously locked-in voters started completely switching camps and Democrat voters were becoming Republican voters which explained how party IDs began to drift closer to parity.

Today, if we stay with their deeply flawed argument, following the worst Presidential debate performance ever (think about that for a second), the unholy alliance of NBC/WSJ/Marist wants us to believe the voters of Ohio have switched back to super outstanding,march on the picket line, unions forever Democrats of their previously wholly unrealistic and unreliable polls.  No thank you.  Also, the pollsters messed with the racial weightings in Florida and Virginia, something they definitely subjectively re-weight polls for, all to the advantage of Obama (shocking, I know).  But Ohio is over 80% White so they just polled GM auto plants for their politically balanced sample.  After the below tripe, I have to believe Romney is up by at least a point or two in Ohio because these polls are so awful they must be hiding a lot of stink for Obama out there in the Battlegrounds

Ohio:

Obama leads by 6 overall (51 to 45) while Romney is up 7% with Independents (yea, right). The party ID last week was D +5 following the absurd D +10 on September 13.  Today’s party ID laughs at last week’s party ID with a cosmically awful D +11 — you can’t make this shit up. After giving them some credit for finding a slightly better sample group last week, this one has to rank among the worst of the election season.  This is money well spent as an in-kind contribution to the Obama re-election campaign and nothing more.

Party ID is D +11 (Dem 40, Rep 29, Ind 29)
2008 was D +8 (Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30)
2004 was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25)

Florida:

Obama leads by 1-point overall (48 to 47), the same lead as last week while Romney leads by 5-6-points with Independents, same as last week. Here is where more high comedy comes in.  In last week’s Florida poll, the race Demographic percentages for likely voters was White 68, Hispanics 15, Blacks, 13.  This week we have 5% less Whites and 5% more Hispanics: White 63, Hispanics 20, Black 13.  The thing to remember about the re-weighting by race, this is a variable the pollsters CHOOSE.  Marist made a conscience decision dramatically shift the racial demographics this week just like Gallup which of course hides the decline in support for President Obama.  Even in the survey one-month ago the White percentage was 67% but then suddenly White Mitt Romney voters decided to stay home after the debates? (If these were Obama voters staying home he’d be down 10-points). The demos in 2008 were White 71, Black 13, Hispanic 14. Just another in-kind contribution to the Obama re-elect campaign. The party ID remains a bit of a joke like last week with a better turnout for Obama than in 2008.  Regardless, this is a poll run at the behest of David Axelrod which is what NBC/WSJ/Marist should just say up front.

Party ID is D +4 (Dem 37, Rep 33, Ind 29)
2008 was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29)
2004 was R+4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23)

Virginia:

One of their few consistent polling efforts, the Old Dominion state remains a tight race.  Romney reverses Obama’s previous 2-point lead and takes a slim 1-point advantage (48 to 47). Romney leads among Independents by 8-points (50 to 42) but Obama picks up a few crossover votes to account remaining competitive.Of course they coincidentally played with the racial make-up this week dropping Whites -3% and adding Hispanics by +2% just because why not?  It’s Columbus weekend let’s act like the race is closer than it is by arbitrarily screwing with the race demos.  This was the least egregious of the three but still unworthy of any consideration for serious polling. The party ID remains at a more reasonable level of D +2, far better than the D +6 they tried to pass off in mid-September.  As with every reasonable Virginia survey, the state is tight as a tick.

Party ID is D +2 (Dem 30, Rep 28, Ind 40)
2008 was D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27)
2004 was R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26)

14 Comments

  1. M.Remmerde
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 2:37 am | Permalink | Reply

    RCP needs to start putting a (D) behind these NBC/WSJ/Marist polls. They are Gong Show bad.

    Here’s the most interesting thing about this OH poll– It basically puts NBC/WSJ/Marist in the position of saying, “ignore the Ohio Secretary of State’s *actual* absentee ballots returned numbers, we disagree with that reality and substitute our own.”

  2. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 3:19 am | Permalink | Reply

    To be kinda sorta fair, the pollsters themselves pretty much admitted their Ohio sample was rubbish. And the top line was “Romney gains big in swing states” so it’s not as thought they’re spinning it as a great result for Obama

  3. jeff
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 5:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    MSNBCs headline tomorrow will be DESPITE DEBATE PERFORMANCE OBAMA COMFORTABLY AHEAD IN THE MUST WIN STATE OF OHIO AND STILL LEADING IN VA AND FLORIDA. Yeaaaaaaahhhhhh rigggghhhhhtttttt.

  4. jeff
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 5:49 am | Permalink | Reply

    Quite obviously a desperate attempt to raise the spirits of democrats and convince republicans that BO cant be defeated in Ohio. Im sure the people at NBC saw the real numbers with Romney ahead by 5 in all three states.

  5. housebroken dad
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 8:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    Today show is leading with this drivel. I find it funny that they no longer even try to hide their support for O. AT this point, we can safely put FL in the R column. Even in this sham poll where whites and R’s are undersampled, O only leads by 1. It looks to me like a consistant 5 point lead for R right now. The VA poll looks good too when you break down the numbers. Why does the WSJ even associate themselves with NBC anyway? Really doing them a disservice.

    • jeff
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 8:43 am | Permalink | Reply

      I would put Fl VA CO and NC in the Rombey column. But eventually and I suspect starting about two weeks before the election I think even NBC will stop the pro Obama propaganda and start polling with real numbers only to preserve any semblance of credibility.

  6. damien
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 10:25 am | Permalink | Reply

    big bird pays off…d’s explode in ohio!!!

  7. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 10:25 am | Permalink | Reply

    Didn’t Obama’s own leaked internals show a tie in Ohio?

    • margaret
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Your comment agrees with someone who commented on another website today: “I received an email from MoveOn, saying that the Democrats had lost their lead in Ohio and that even Sherrod Brown was now a couple of points below the challenger and they needed money in Ohio.” !!

      • TexasMom2012
        Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

        Oh happy day! Good to hear.

  8. TexasMom2012
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think Romney will landslide Obama by at least 330EV. It is to going to be close. Simply looking at the enthusiasm gap with Republicans up 13 points tells you plenty about the future vote. I even think Wisconsin will go Romney. Especially with Walkers thumping of the unions in the recall and with the addition of Ryan to the ticket. Plus Preibus is from Wi. I cannot wait to get out and vote although I know Texas will go Romney, we all plan to vote to boost popular vote!

    • TexasMom2012
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Correction: it is NOT going to be close.

  9. Ranger375
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 6:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    While I am not nearly as smart as you all that can really crunch the numbers — I am sure I have seen the same pattern for a couple of months now. If there is a poll that moves Romney up I can count on another poll within a couple of days that makes me shake my head and ask what the heck happened in THAT poll?

    Maybe not a numbers thing but it sure seems like this is what happens every time to me.

  10. Posted February 7, 2013 at 11:25 am | Permalink | Reply

    Greetings! I’ve been following your site for a while now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Porter Tx! Just wanted to say keep up the good job!

6 Trackbacks

  1. […] by six percentage points. [ed. — The Real Clear Politics average in Ohio is Obama +1.3 and the laughable NBC/WSJ poll is by far the greatest […]

  2. […] votes has been floating around the blogosphere and twiitterverse ever since the completely biased NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Ohio last week.  I dismissed this as a noteworthy story to debunk because the statistic was so […]

  3. […] to be outdone by the ludicrous NBC/WSJ/Mariat Battleground State polls from last week, ABC/Washington Post reveal their national poll today showing President Obama with a […]

  4. […] who are making in-kind contributions to the re-election efforts of Barack Obama through unrealistic polling that doubles as press releases for Obama For America and moderators who stifle Republican […]

  5. […] really).   You can read my previous take-downs of the least reliable poling outfitl this cycle here, here and […]

  6. […] data and test whether the poll data match up with the poll results.  We found that time after time after time the results unequivocally do not match up with the internal data.  Thanks to Sean […]

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