Larry Sabato moves Florida to “Lean Romney”

The much respected Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia (we won’t hold that against him) made some changes today in his electoral college and interestingly, 29 electoral votes in Florida shifted from toss-up to “Lean Romney:”

As of this writing, we do not have reams of credible, new information about the swing states, but in the days to come there will be many more surveys of the top states. Based on what we know now, however, we’re going to make a few changes to our maps.

We’ve long thought that in a close presidential race, Florida would likely end up in Romney’s column. Given that it was the president’s third weakest win in 2008, it naturally — along with more Republican Indiana and North Carolina — would be one of the states to fall out of Obama’s orbit in a much tighter race. So we’re moving Florida to Leans Republican, even though the polling there still indicates it is a toss-up. We’re also moving Virginia back from leans Democratic to toss-up. We know that the Obama campaign has long fretted about Virginia, understanding that the 2008 Obama vote was no predictor of 2012 success in the Old Dominion. There’s no longer any compelling justification that Obama has the advantage here. We could see it going to either candidate by a point or two or three.


  1. damien
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    so..thats 2 out of three suffolk was right on….virginia…come on

    • Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Regarding Suffolk, check out what Jon Ralston just tweeted:

      RT @amtpolitics: @RalstonReports Suffolk was the gold standard in Nevada polling in 2008 and 2010. Had Reid +3 and Obama +10/Yep. True dat.

      Ralston in an unabashed Lefty who calls himself a non-partisan. They key with him is he is honest and fair in his assessment of the numbers and trends he sees on the ground in that state which gives him a ton of credibility despite his personal politics.

      Suffolk is getting a lot of attention over that bold call, but even with increased scrutiny they are standing tall among their critics so far.

    • Eric
      Posted October 11, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ve got Virginia as leaning Republican as this point along with Florida and Colorado. The tossup states at the moment are New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio. Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are leaning Democrat at the moment.

      Those nine states are in the middle right now.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 1:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So the next move by Sabato would be turning Colorado red, and moving, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio to toss-up. That’s coming up.

  3. bunky
    Posted October 11, 2012 at 5:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    My anecdotal evidence that Sabato is correct.
    There are hundreds of Romney / Ryan signs around my Florida town and county.
    There is only one Obama / Biden sign. Someone put that sign in front of a vacant lot.

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