Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is XVI

After a one week hiatus (never did get last week’s info from NBC) the weekly top 10 ad markets is back with only one surprise, Green Bay, Wisconsin. If there weren’t any weekly gaps we could have done some really need stuff with this data but alas …

The no brainer states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida dominate the list which comes as no surprise.  We see the campaign focused Battlegrounds of Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin being the real stories. This is straight out of Karl Rove’s 3-2-1 strategy he wrote about 5-months ago (Day 2 of this b log!)with 3 being Indiana, North Carolina and Virgina (2 out of 3 done), 2 being Ohio and Florida (obvious priorities through election day) and 1 being Colorado, Iowa or Wisconsin (based on this week’s spending).

While Team Romney is making a play for the other states (New Hampshire and Nevada) clearly they see their best chances in the three making today’s list.  The Romney campaign clearly saw concern in Iowa which bolsters the claim that Obama’s unprecedented 3-day commitment in August paid real dividends. No surprise comparatively new American Future Fund is big in Iowa as the conservative organization is headed by ex-GOP Iowa staffers. Additionally the pro-Romney teams are saturating Wisconsin which is a great sign about its potential vulnerability to flipping.  Finally, we see the NRA entering the mix in Norfolk, Virginia which is great since their constituency is both loyal and passionate which should help turnout.   All good signs that everything is on full blast for the final three weeks.

A quick guide: RNC is the Republican National Committee, ROF is Restore Our Future (Romney Super PAC); AFP is Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney group); CWA is Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney group); NRA is National Rifle Association (pro-Romney); AFF is American Future Fund (pro-Romney); and Priorities is Priorities USA Action (pro-Obama Super PAC).

Hottest Markets for the week 10/8-10/14 Hottest Markets for the week 9/24-9/30
1. Orlando, FL (Obama 1600, Romney1600, ROF 775, Priorities 630, ROF 215)
2. Norfolk VA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF1200, Priorities 350, NRA 300)
3. Cleveland, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 400)
4. Denver, CO (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1200, Priorities 300)
5. Toledo, OH (Romney 1500, Obama 1500, AmCrossroads 1100, Priorities 300, NRA 250)
6. Des Moines, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 1000, Priorities 350, American Future Fund 360)
7. Roanoke, VA (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 750, Priorities 300, NRA 400)
8. Cedar Rapids, IA (Romney 1500, Obama 1300, ROF 780, American Future Fund 415, Priorities 400)
9. Green Bay, WI (Romney 1500, ROF 1500, Obama 500, Priorities 500, NRA 400)
10. Tampa, FL (Romney 1,500, Obama 1500, ROF 675, NRA 250)
1. Madison, WI: Obama 1540, Restore 1480, Romney 940, Priorities USA 860
2. Orlando, FL: Obama 1700, Romney 1240, AJS 890, Crossroads 620, Priorities 250
3. Cleveland, OH: Romney 1540, Obama 1500, AJS 710, Priorities 440, Crossroads 400
4. Tampa, St. Pete, FL: Obama 1710, Romney 1300, AJS 670, Crossroads 480, Priorities 280
5. Washington, DC: Obama 1800, Romney 1500, AJS 570, Crossroads 250
6. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA: Romney 1500, Obama 1340, AJS 670, Crossroads 530
7. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA: Obama 1450, Romney 1440, AJS 730, Crossroads 215, Priorities 200
8. Dayton, OH: Romney 1540, Obama 1390, Crossroads 570, AJS 360
9. Richmond-Petersburg, VA: Romney 1475, Obama 1360, AJS 490, Crossroads 400, Priorities 230
10. Toledo, OH: Romney 1500/Obama 1110, AJS 680, Crossroads 270, Priorities 330

MSNBC takeaways:

No takeaways provided but away from the top ten, they do write-up an appropriately concerning story about potential ad spending mismanagement.  I’ll be curious to see how this washes out after the election because based on these reports, it really does look like amateur hour:

If Obama ends up winning the presidential contest, it could very well come down to this: Team Obama has a tactical advantage over Team Romney, and that’s especially true when it comes to advertising strategy. Politico has this example: “Voters in Columbus, Ohio, saw 30-second television ads for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney while watching ‘Wheel of Fortune’ on their CBS affiliate over three days in September. For Obama’s team, the order per spot cost $500. For Romney’s, the price tag on the order was more than five times steeper at $2,800 per ad.” What’s going on here? Politico explains, “Romney places his commercials on a week-to-week basis, rather than booking time well in advance, and typically pays more so that his ads don’t get preempted and to spare his campaign the hassle of haggling over time as prices rise.” Folks, this is the equivalent of an NFL team — in terms of tactics and ad-buying strategy — going up against a high school team. And here’s another example we’ve heard: For weeks, the Obama campaign has been hammering Romney on the “Big 10 Network.” Only until recently has the Romney campaign also decided to advertise on the channel, about five weeks AFTER the start of football season. In a close race, the little things matter.

7 Comments

  1. John Fisher
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I wonder how much $$ the Obama campaign has spent on Big Bird? Talk about high school strategy.

  2. margaret
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Someone on a conservative website left an interesting comment this morning. They are in Ohio. Until yesterday, Obama ads dominated. Suddenly today, Romney ads are dominating on tv. I guess the Romney campaign is starting to hit tv heavier, at least in that place in Ohio.

  3. eatdust11
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 2:30 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m in Ohio too.. Obama has definitely shown more ads here (I’m an a GOP-friendly area northeast of Columbus). How could the Romney campaign waste so much money on ads and let Obama’s $$ go that much farther? I hope it doesn’t cost Romney the election!

  4. William Jefferson
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 2:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Indiana & NC: sewn up
    FL, CO, VA: trending out way nicely.
    That leaves Ohio.

    • WillBest
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney also needs one of CO, NH, WI, IA, or NV

  5. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 4:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney has been getting outspent this whole time. But they are timing it PERFECT with the debates, the Libya story coming into the mainstream media. He is spending every extra dollar he has here towards the end of the campaign. AND I would not put it past Romney to “self fund” if needbe to make sure he runs more ads than Obama. Also the RNC is stocked and ready to fire. they will have PLENTY of RNC money for GOTV..the DNC is broke.

    Self fund would not show until AFTER the election in campaign finance reports.

    Also, you have Crossroads, Restore our Future, and other multiple chirstian/catholic organizations mass mailers and ads.

    Don’t forget, just like the 4,000 Americans for Prosperity “super volunteers” in Wisconsin. they have been organizing and instituting door knocking for months now. the GOTV, door knock phone call effort i am sure is ahead of Barack Obamas machine. every single article you read on OFA door knocks, phone calls is their volunteers speaking of not hearing or seeing the same excitement and how much harder it is this time.

    Almost every single poll has Romney up with independents. And it was FANTASTIC to see yesterday, news of “bias” polls from liberal outlets, and nbc/cnn on their main webpages wondering if the polls were “bias” for Rombney…or if they could be “trusted”…ROFL LMAO

  6. Kevin Brown
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    also remember if worse comes to worse Romeny can “loan” money to his campaign if necessary and I would imagine throwing in another 5 to 10 million for ads or GOTV at the end and get him over the top

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] you look at the ad spending numbers provided by NBC’s First Read, Obama and Romney for this week are both spending $13-14 million.  All of that is in only 8-9 […]

  2. […] markets included (and not included) tell a much bigger story.  Look at the week-over-week shift.  Last week had the Romney campaign’s entire 3-2-1 strategy for winning the election: Virginia (2x), Ohio […]

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