Obama +5 in Pennsylvania — Rasmussen

The latest from Rasmussen Reports shows Pennsylvania well within striking distance for the Romney campaign.  President Obama holds a 5-point lead 51 to 46 with only 1% Undecided.  The party ID (thanks to @NumbersMuncher) was D +5 which accounts for all of Obama’s lead. This compares to D +7 in 2008 and D +2 in 2004.  Clearly Romney needs more party switchers if he is going to steal the Keystone State:

President Obama still earns more than 50% support against Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows the president with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 46
Other 1
Undecided 1


  1. Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I will believe PA is in play when Romney or Obama makes more than a simple speech in PA. However, it’s fun to speculate, and will be really fun if on election night we are waiting till the early hours of the morning to figure out who won PA.

    • WillBest
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 2:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Ad money the last 2 weeks of sept averaged 3.5 million. First week of Oct it jumped to $7 million.

    • AussieMarcus
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t necessarily agree that PA is only in play if Obama starts stumping here. I don’t think Obama will spend any time here no matter how bad it looks for him. If he loses PA he’s already lost the election, so why waste time and money on a state that doesn’t matter?

      From his point of view, it’s better to keep trying to seal up the increasingly big cracks in his Ohio firewall than campaigning in PA.

      I do note Romney’s been there 3 times (?) recently, and the Bidens have been in and out of the state.

  2. Anthony
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wish that gap were smaller. I was in PA over the weekend. A message of manufacturing renewal would play so well there if it were effectively articulated. One gets the distinct feeling that there are many untapped tapped votes in that state if only there were someone who could identify with their plight and inspire confidence. Romney and Ryan could do this.

  3. damien
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    if romney is at his height and we still havent seen one poll of pa and mi with him ahead…i doubt they will slip to us..but let obama spend money and time…just as good

    • William Jefferson
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If Romney at 49% nationally is “his height” then he’s going to lose more than PA; he’ll lose the election. Plenty of time here.

  4. Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    New Rasmussen poll from New Hampshire showing it tied 48-48… Wisconsin shows Obama 51 Romney 49.

  5. Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t necessarily buy that Pennsylvania is in play but I think it is telling. If Romney is “within striking distance” on election day I think it will show you where the country is thinking and where the election will go. In my humble opinion this election will either be a 2000 style squeaker or an utter blowout (modern standards). If Romney takes Pennsylvania it would mean a blowout in the works. If he loses by <5 then this will be a close close race across the country and places like Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, etc are all very much likely to go Romney

    • Kevin
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 4:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If Romney wins Pennsylvania, that will dispirit the Obama voters in the Central, and Mountain Time Zones, states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. That would have a psychological affect on turnout for Obama.

  6. Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Seen tweets from AoS’s CAC about another poll “Pulse Opinion” saying Obama only up 2 in PA

  7. Posted October 11, 2012 at 1:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The party ID nationally for Rasmussen appears to be D+5 at this time.. not sure about PA. On another note, there’s a Philly Inquirer/Susquahanna poll out with Obama up by 8. BUT.. check out the break down. Romney actually improves a bit with R’s and D’s, but with Independents, Obama is winning them 65 to 28 !! LOL.. it’s a huge jump from their previous poll when O was actually +11 overall. So the R/D/I breakdown improved for Romney but to offset it, they killed him with the Independent numbers.

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