Obama +1 in Ohio — SurveyUSA

More polling out of SuveyUSA who gives readers the raw data to sift through which is quite awesome.  The latest in Ohio shows the President holding to a 1-point lead  45 to 44 over Mitt Romney with 8% Undecided.  It’s clear Ohio is tough terrain for both candidates right now with plenty of voters on the fence.  This is where ground game, message momentum and debate performances going forward are pretty much the whole enchilada from here on out.

In an election for Ohio’s 18 vital electoral votes today, 10/09/12, one week after Buckeye voting began and 4 weeks till votes are counted, Barack Obama is at 45% to Mitt Romney’s 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV, NBC4 in Columbus. Obama’s advantage is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant.

Highlights:

  • Greater Dayton and greater Cincinnati favor Romney. Greater Columbus, greater Toledo and greater Cleveland favor Obama
  • Obama support among Whites @ 40%
  • Obama support among Blacks @ 82%
  • Independents break for Romney 44 to 35
  • Ohio voters, narrowly, say Romney would do a better job balancing the federal budget
  • Ohio voters split on who would do better at keeping America safe

That first bulletis huge since that is Hamilton County which swung Barack Obama’s way in 2008 but used to be a hotbed of Republican voters.  Without Hamilton Barack Obama will have an exceedingly difficult climb over 50% statewide. The party ID was D +6 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 25). This compares to 2008 of D +8 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and 2004 when it was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  So with an oversampling of Democrats by 4-5% Obama’s support among Whites is at 40%?  Bad, bad, bad for Obama.  Also Romney with a 9-point lead among Independents and Obama support among Blacks drifting down to 82%?  Obama made lead the top-line but this isn’t a good poll for the Chicago Team.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 44
Other 3
Undecided 8

13 Comments

  1. jvnvch
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink | Reply

    It’s much more unlikely that President Obama can get to 50% from 45% than it is for Mitt Romney to get there from 44%. The undecideds should break Romney’s way.

  2. William Jefferson
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama is way too low with 1 month to go. Does anyone know how Ford came back strong against Carter in 1976 to almost nick him at the end? Obama needs a similar turnaround.

    • jeff
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      Another nice try by a polling firm trying to make the race closer than it really is. D+6? Ok. I would say by tje oversampling Romneys ahead by 4 or 5.

  3. housebroken dad
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:17 am | Permalink | Reply

    Another great poll out of OH for R. All indications are that at worst this is going to be a 50/50 turnout. I’m still believing that R has at least a 5 point lead in OH at the moment. Now he just needs to hold it and not give those wishy-washy voters any reason to change their mind.

  4. Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:37 am | Permalink | Reply

    Seems to me that an Democratic incumbent that can’t get near 50% in a poll that is D+6 is in trouble. I think that’s too high anyways. D+2 or D+3 in Ohio could be about right, though it could end up even like in 2010. The GOP has an advantage of controlling a lot of office in the state again and that often is an advantage. I think having Strickland in charge back in 2008 was an advantage for the Democrats.

    It’d be one thing if the incumbent were trusted, but clearly Obama doesn’t have a lot of confident support.

  5. Eric
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:49 am | Permalink | Reply

    This poll confirms Romney’s internal polling in Ohio, which has him ahead by 4-5 points.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 12:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      On record, the campaign replied to a reporter yesterday that the margin was 1 percent in Ohio.

  6. Vadim
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    Erric,
    How do you know Romney’s internal polling numbers? I hope you are right (I am a big Mitt supporter) but internal polls are usually not published…

    • Posted October 10, 2012 at 10:14 am | Permalink | Reply

      They aren’t, but you can get information about them when you volunteer for the campaign. I’ve gotten some in the past about Florida. There’s a reason why Obama probably won’t be visiting Florida beyond this week. I expect him to be in Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I’m not sure he’ll even spend a lot of time in Virginia for the last month. The polling in Michigan and Pennsylvania is bad for him. I suspect even New Hampshire is not looking good when a good poll is taken.

      Ohio will be his primary focus going forward because if Ohio goes Romney, it gets very close to being over. Virginia might be iffy too, I think Florida is going Romney pretty solidly, at least that’s what it looks like inside the state.

      I’d believe the Romney up by 4 or 5 in Ohio. I’m originally from there. A massive rally in Cuyahoga Falls is a huge boon. That’s targeted at a place Obama was strong in 2008.

    • Eric
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 10:24 am | Permalink | Reply

      I saw that figure a few days ago. Someone had access to Romney’s internals and said that. If you search on google you should find it. It also had Romney up 3 in New Hampshire.

  7. Vadim
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 10:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    Thanks guys. I do volunteer for Mitt in Boston but do not have access to the polling data.

  8. John
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 11:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    Any updates on Wood County (the great predictor of presidential elections) early voter registrations and absentee requests?
    http://www.npr.org/2012/09/29/162019588/ohio-county-a-historic-predictor-of-states-vote

  9. Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    As someone who spent many years working in politics and on many campaigns, internals are not shared with general volunteers those are numbers that are held by the big wigs high up to know where their campaign is headed. If volunteers are getting “internals” it is merely for rah-rah. The “code” so to speak is a winning candidate NEVER generally speaks about internals because their internals match the public. If a candidate is mentioning what their internals say they are either #1 saying they are close/within striking distance or #2 they are trying to knock down speculation that they are way ahead. So if the campaign publically stated their internals say 1% that means they are down 1% but within striking distance.

    Generally if a candidate starts refuting public polls with “our internals show us in a strong position” they are trying to keep their base from being demoralized and firing them up.

    My guess is Romney’s campaign is saying they are down 1% but their internals are showing the trend is toward them.

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