It’s a dog fight in the Silver State with plenty of votes still up for grabs. The latest in Nevada has President Obama clinging to a 1-point lead 47 to 46 but underneath the top-line many many bad #s for the President:
- Obama’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 44/46
- Blacks: Support for Obama was 81 to 14 for Obama, well off the 2008 highs
- Hispanics: Support for Obama was 54 to 41 percent, 10-15 points below his 2008 support
Party ID was D +7, Dem 40, Rep 33, Ind 25. In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 12) and in 2004 it was R+4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). With a large Democrat partisan split like this and such weak support among Blacks and Hispanics (which I’m not sure will be the case on election day), you know all of the over-sampling of Democrats is White Democrats. Obama’s support in the poll among White’s is 42%, If the real party ID should be D +2, that means Obama ‘s support among Whites is really ~36% and he can’t win with that level of support among the state ( and country’s) largest demographic.
UPDATE: I should have connected the dots better but after a twitter convo with
@RalstonReports and @justkarl the internals of too many White Democrats only compensates for the unusually low level of support for Obama among minorities. Bottom line, although Obama’s support among minorities is higher than this poll reveals, the race is still likely tied because of Obama’s true (low) level of support among White voters.
The presidential race in Nevada is a virtual flip of the coin, with President Barack Obama holding a slim 47 percent to 46 percent lead over challenger Mitt Romney among likely voters, an 8NewsNow/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll released early Wednesday morning shows. The statewide bilingual cell phone and landline poll, conducted by SurveyUSA of Clifton, N.J., involved 1,222 likely Nevada voters who were queried following the first presidential debate between Democrat Obama and Republican Romney in Denver on Oct. 3. The poll, with a 2.9 percent margin of error, also found that 3 percent favored other candidates and 4 percent were undecided. The latest poll represents a slight narrowing from an 8NewsNow/Review-Journal poll conducted in August, at which time Obama held a 47-45 advantage. In 2008, Obama won Nevada by 12 percentage points over Republican John McCain.
The new poll found that Romney and Obama each were viewed favorably by 44 percent of respondents. But Obama was viewed unfavorably by 46 percent of those polled, versus 43 percent who had an unfavorable opinion of Romney. That translates to a favorable rating of plus one for Romney and minus two for Obama. In August Romney had a favorable rating of minus seven and Obama was at minus five. The composition of the poll includes 40 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 25 percent independents.