Obama +1 in Nevada — SurveyUSA (tons of data)

It’s a dog fight in the Silver State with plenty of votes still up for grabs.  The latest in Nevada has President Obama clinging to a 1-point lead 47 to 46 but underneath the top-line many many bad #s for the President:

  • Obama’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 44/46
  • Blacks: Support for Obama was 81 to 14 for Obama, well off the 2008 highs
  • Hispanics: Support for Obama was 54 to 41 percent, 10-15 points below his 2008 support

Party ID was D +7, Dem 40, Rep 33, Ind 25. In 2008 it was D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 12) and in 2004 it was  R+4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). With a large Democrat partisan split like this and such weak support among Blacks and Hispanics (which I’m not sure will be the case on election day), you know all of the over-sampling of Democrats is White Democrats.  Obama’s support in the poll among White’s is 42%,  If the real party ID should be D +2, that means Obama ‘s support among Whites is really ~36% and he can’t win with that level of support among the state ( and country’s) largest demographic.

UPDATE: I should have connected the dots better but after a twitter convo with @RalstonReports and @justkarl the internals of too many White Democrats only compensates for the unusually low level of support for Obama among minorities.  Bottom line, although Obama’s support among minorities is higher than this poll reveals, the race is still likely tied because of Obama’s true (low) level of support among White voters.

The presidential race in Nevada is a virtual flip of the coin, with President Barack Obama holding a slim 47 percent to 46 percent lead over challenger Mitt Romney among likely voters, an 8NewsNow/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll released early Wednesday morning shows. The statewide bilingual cell phone and landline poll, conducted by SurveyUSA of Clifton, N.J., involved 1,222 likely Nevada voters who were queried following the first presidential debate between Democrat Obama and Republican Romney in Denver on Oct. 3. The poll, with a 2.9 percent margin of error, also found that 3 percent favored other candidates and 4 percent were undecided. The latest poll represents a slight narrowing from an 8NewsNow/Review-Journal poll conducted in August, at which time Obama held a 47-45 advantage. In 2008, Obama won Nevada by 12 percentage points over Republican John McCain.

The new poll found that Romney and Obama each were viewed favorably by 44 percent of respondents. But Obama was viewed unfavorably by 46 percent of those polled, versus 43 percent who had an unfavorable opinion of Romney. That translates to a favorable rating of plus one for Romney and minus two for Obama. In August Romney had a favorable rating of minus seven and Obama was at minus five. The composition of the poll includes 40 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 25 percent independents.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 46
Other 3
Undecided 4

13 Comments

  1. Posted October 10, 2012 at 8:27 am | Permalink | Reply

    http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/09/politics/polling-hype/index.html?hpt=hp_bn3

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 8:43 am | Permalink | Reply

      No comments perdogg? Very troll like. Yeah, this site has been very intellectually honest about polling issues both for and against Romney. If you posted it to make fun how now CNN is telling people to ” never mind” the trend, that’s fine and it’s funny. Just not really sure your perspective or context of the link.

      • Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:00 am | Permalink

        Perdogg is a great supporter of this site. He one of the most loyal promoters of my work. He’s the opposite of a troll.

      • Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:40 am | Permalink

        I apologize for the post and run. That was my fault. I should have added context. I was posting to point out the hypocrisy of the newsmedia who now claim that polls don’t matter, Thank you Keith, again, I will be more diligent in my postings.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:08 am | Permalink | Reply

      K…I just wondered…

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 10, 2012 at 10:58 am | Permalink

        Nah…my fault perdogg..should have hit your name tag? I have spent the last day or so reading posts/stories regarding this being an anomaly that I thought one may have bleeder over to this site. This site is pretty pure in that regard and am a little sensitive (plus sprinkle some sleep debt) when a get a wiff of it.

    • Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I got Perdogg’s point…the media that was telling us we were nuts to question polls are now either 1) questing the polls that put Romney ahead or 2) saying nothing to see here move on. It is obvious the media is IN LOVE with Nate Silver. He is the nerd with the database that has purported to forecast the future. His statistics are interesting they are fun to read. But the bottom line is just like the whole Moneyball issue in baseball, if statistics told the whole story and if owners could win World Series Trophies by the dozen with the lowest payroll focusing merely on these stats, they would. The A’s have made their first playoffs in what 7 years subscribing to the Stat idea.

      Bottom line as one guy who posted on Silver’s blog said, stats are great and they may help predict baseball which is walk to get on base, score and win because baseball is about mechanics. Politics have the one thing that stats cannot predict THE HUMAN element.

      Bottom line polls are polls. They are a thumb in air on a given day or during given days and what people are thinking. That is how you get sudden bounces, etc. Undecideds and wishy washy voters are EASILY swayed and many do not make their mind up until they are in the voting booth. That is why you HAVE TO BE UP in the polls regardless of how independents will break.

  2. William Jefferson
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:04 am | Permalink | Reply

    He’s not going to win with a 44% approval rating.

  3. Eric
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:40 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney leading by 8 with independents in this poll of Nevada. Romney is also winning more Republicans than Obama is winning Democrats. If the electorate on election day is anywhere close to even, then Romney wins.

  4. mdsanders
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:56 am | Permalink | Reply

    As an aside… 14% of people who identify themselves with the tea party are voting for O. Who are these people?

  5. John
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 11:13 am | Permalink | Reply

    The Las Vegas Review-Journal has endorsed Mitt Romney.

  6. Posted October 10, 2012 at 12:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    No poll can reflect how one feels after being betrayed! The Obama Aministration in now faced with repeatedly misleading the American people deliberately regarding the attacks in Libya AND in the Fast and Furious situation, thus betraying their trust! Americans typically prefer someone who has told them the truth. This is ;likely why the Obama Campaign is claiming that Romney lied in the debates and why they are hiding behind distractions such as funding for PBS and Big Bird. Patty Burgus

  7. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Not even poor old PPP, cranking things out once again to D>2008 turnout, could get Obama much above MoE here.

    Obama up 4, in from up 9 last time, with a D+9 sample.

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