Dead Heat in New Hampshire at 48 to 48 with 1% Undecided — Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports shows things all knotted up in New Hampshire at 48 a piece.  Hearing that Romney is down with Independents who will likely decide the race so he’s got some work to do there:

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are now tied in the swing state of New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in New Hampshire shows both candidates earning 48% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided. This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 48
Other 3
Undecided 1

22 Comments

  1. No Tribe
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 3:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So close. RCP leads under 1%

    Romney
    CO-.5%
    FL-.7%

    Obama
    OH-.8%
    VA-.3%
    NV-.7%

  2. No Tribe
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 3:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wow on TIPP poll: http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

    Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support.
    Romney’s edge among independents widened to 20 points from 18 just a day before.

    Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx#ixzz28vRZd3bc

    • Posted October 10, 2012 at 3:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Registered Voters – D+8
      Obama is getting 34% of the white vote…ouch.
      Obama getting 91% of black vote, 64% of Hispanic (spread is 26%)
      Romney only down 8 among women
      Romney retains 91% of McCain votes, Obama only retains 83% of his 08 voters

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 10, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

        D+8 and he is down by 5? That is rough for BO. This is about 1/2 through the jobs report also and a +3 since yesterday. Someone on this site mentioned that the effects of the debate would still be found a week + and I wasn’t so sure. Maybe so. The more BO’s campaign talks about BB and not about solutions his support is going to crater until next Tuesday. I’m not convinced the VP debate will be that defining unless their is a sound bite to draw from. How one week can change everything. Keep that in mind for our side also.

  3. John Fisher
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hide the sharp instruments from O supportors. RCP just moved NH, WI and PA (yes PA) into undecided.

  4. Kevin
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 3:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Last week, Real Clear Politics had Obama up 269 to 181 over Romney in the Electoral Votes count.

    Today, Real Clear Politics has Obama up 217 to 181 over Romney in the Electoral Votes count.

    They are now showing, New Hampshire Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin as toss ups.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

    And tomorrow night is the VP debate in which Ryan should run away with. Also, the House is holding hearings into the Libya attacks, and Obama and company are coming out with one lie to cover up the previous lie about what they knew, and when they knew it.

    Something tells me that these polls are going to get worse for Obama.

    • damien
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 3:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

      no way….they got big bird….and 90 percent of press

  5. Tim
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Hi All,
    What are your thoughts on state of the race a week after debate? Do you think Romney is tied, leading, or trailing at this point?
    Tim

    • Eric
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Romney is leading by around 3 points in my opinion.

  6. Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama’s team is leaking their internals to the press. NEVER A GOOD SIGN for a campaign. Always smacks of desperation. When a side is losing, they leak bogus internals to try and encourage their base:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/obama-s-ohio-silver-lining-20121010

    • Interested Party
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The internals show an even race? That’s what Messina defined as debate success. Guess what? It happened.
      Additionally, unless there is a major voter registration change in OH, it looks like the turnout models in OH favor R right now by about 4%.
      I think, barrring a major disaster, R takes OH, VA, and FL. He also will get one of IA, NH, NV, CO, or WI and wins the election.
      PA and MI will be close if O continues to flail.

      • Eric
        Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

        Romney’s probably only about 2-3 points behind in Pennsylvania right now. Michigan is probably around 4-5 points behind. Romney leads in Virginia, Florida, and Colorado.

      • Tim
        Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

        Not sure I see enough evidence to be very confident about OH and VA at this point.

  7. Tim
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I do not believe Romney is far enough ahead for us to get overly excited as of today, but we have more reasons to be optimistic than 1 week ago. Reasons to be encouraged:

    1) Romney has gained 6 point in Rasmussen national poll to be up +1.
    2) Romney is tied in Gallup and gained 6 points in Gallup as well.
    3) Independents and women are trending toward Romney.
    4) Florida is solidified according to most pollsters.
    5) PA,WI,NH have moved from lean/solid Obama to toss up.
    6) Romney has momentum and gave voters are reason to vote for him rather *just* not for Obama.
    7) Team Romney has changed the story line and have a solid foundation to build upon.
    8) Obama is under 47% in most polls. No President wins @ that percentage.
    9) Obama has to deal not only with debate performance, but poor handling of Libya incident.

    Reasons to be cautious:

    1) VA ,CO, and especially OH are essentially tied and could go either way.
    2) Obama will likely be better in debates 2 and 3 and polls may move back a few points.
    3) Job numbers do give Obama something positive to discuss.
    4) MSM is entirely pro-Obama and that cannot be underestimated.
    5) Obama has more $$ right now.

    All in all, I believe that the debate was a *game changer* and a pivot point and we will reflect back on this as Romney’s moment. At the same time, 28 days remain and anything can happen. Team Obama will not go easily and will make this a dogfight to the finish.

    • Medicine Man
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 7:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I have to agree with Tim. If the election was tomorrow, R would win I believe, but we are 27 days out. Time enough for a hidden video or two. Nose to the grindstone. One positive is that I’m not sure if Obama and his team has the stones to deal with adversity like this. They really have never had to deal with it. Romney, on the other hand, has plenty of experience dealing with adversity, being in a dog fight ( the primaries) and even the learning experiences of losing a primary. Super bowl time fellas

    • William Jefferson Jr.
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

      What harm will it do if we get “overly excited”? We visited a web page to read about election polling.

      • shane
        Posted October 10, 2012 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

        Don’t want to get overconfident. But if these polls hold into the second debate then Obama is definitely in trouble nation wide. I am confident he us going to come out swinging nasty negative thinking that is the way to take out Romney it will further turn people off . You have an incumbent who won’t and can’t talk about his record only negative shots at Romney.

      • Medicine Man
        Posted October 10, 2012 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

        William, you right. One can use being excited for energy to help with the campaign. I think what people r cautious about is calling OH, Virginia, CO, NV or IA 27 days out ( or the election for that matter). Don’t get me wrong, I’m enjoying seeing Romney +1.5 on RCP as much as anyone compared to the last few months,

  8. johnfisher
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 8:39 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Here’s hoping that Paul blisters Uncle Joe tomorrow.

  9. WillBest
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 8:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    not a poll but CO just went red in Mr. silver’s 538 now-cast. FL went red yesterday in the now-cast and is red in his nov 6 cast

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Call PPP to the rescue!

  10. No Tribe
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “They revealed that Obama was not in free fall, as some feared, but that his support has returned to where it was in July and August.”

    Maybe, but they also show that Romney has jumped up quite a bit, ahead, and the undecideds less now than summer.

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