Suffolk Polling Stops Polling Florida, North Carolina and Virginia — Calls All States for Romney

Now I’m no pollster with inside knowledge, but I’m thinking Virginia is a knife fight through election night.  But to hear an Independent polling outfit make such moves is incredible.

Thanks to my commenters AussieMarcus, Kevin and Jeff for the tip:

22 Comments

  1. No Tribe
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    NC is not surprising. And considering Nate Silver has moved Florida into Romney’s column, and Obama is likely making his last visit to the state on Thursday (to push registration in Miami), that’s not either. Virginia? That’s surprising. But not shocking.

    Suffolk found Obama leading 46-44 in VA before the debate. Same logic, that Obama is not going to dig out of that hole.

    Anyway, if so, it puts Romney at 248 EV’s.

    • damien
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      so ohio puts him over…270…then everything else is gravy…but if he loses ohio then he HAS to win the rest

      • WillBest
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

        NC + FL + VA + OH gets him 4 short. Hence the EC being “pro Obama”. Fortunately CO looks like a good pickup as well. In fact I would best on CO before I bet on VA at this point.

    • Jon
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I have had Romney at that for several weeks now. I never thought that VA or FL would still support Obama. FL cause of the economy. VA cause of the hammering the Military has taken under Obama both in current budget and benefits.

  2. damien
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    this guy just put his career on the line and his group’s rep…fla yea..nc oh yes…but va?…way too close…way too early

  3. Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wow. Is Suffolk polling a GOP polling firm? Do they favor the GOP for some reason? Stop polling in VA? Someone please explain to me why Suffolk would stop polling in FL and VA?

    • damien
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

      all i can remember about them is the nj gov race…they had corzine up bout 9 ten days or so out then christie won by 4 or 5…so not great record on that one

  4. William Jefferson
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    But PPP says that Virginia is an Obama “firewall.”

    • jeff
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      VIrginia is a traditionally red state that went for Obama in a fluke election cycle. Theres absolutely no logical reason why OBama will repeat his performance in 2008. Virginia will revert to its red state status.

      • margaret
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

        True. In the last 10 times, Virginia has only voted Dem once, for Obama. That’s 90% voting for Republicans in 10 elections. I see it reverting back to its old behavior.

      • WillBest
        Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:14 am | Permalink

        Its called demographics shifts. They happen. For example, if republicans don’t convince the Hispanics that they aren’t a bunch of racists like the democrats say they are the republicans are going to lose Arizona in 2016 or 2020.

    • Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Republicans do have to appeal to hispanics in the VERY NEAR future or the entire south (especially SW) will be gone for good. The way they can do that is to fire the economy back up get EVERYONE working. Reduce spending, debt, wars, etc AND come up with an immigration policy that is not deportation in mass or get out jail free cards but a compromise in the middle that appeals to all parties. Such as ending the birthright citizenship BUT making is far easier for a foreign national to apply for and get legal status and citizenship in the US (7-10 years is dumb)

  5. Kevin
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Be careful folks, it’s not close to being over. A lot can happen in 29 days.

  6. TeaPartyPaul
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Great scoop guys!

  7. Jon
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Suffolk isn’t a good polling group. They have been wrong in MA for years. I think that the Brown-Coakley Election in 2010. They were off by 15 points with 10 days to go. I wouldn’t take too much faith in them pulling out.

  8. Timothy
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 11:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Then need to poll Oregon, then. I think we’ll all be surprised?

    • AussieMarcus
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 11:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      A guy at Race42012 (I think that’s the one) apparently is associated with a polling firm.

      They did polling in Oregon recently, allegedly BIG movements to Romney compared to 2008.

      Another guy on AoSHQ is affiliated with a Democratic pollster (or so he says), apparently they’ve been polling Minnesota pretty much constantly for the past few months.

      Who knows if it’s true or just shooting their mouths off, but the Race42012 guy (uncdave) got it right when he said PA and MI would tighten up big time this week.

  9. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 11:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    a lot can happen in 28 days, and with a $1 billion placed on obama, his supporters will not go gentle. we cannot be complacent. we need to nail down fl, nc, oh, va, ia, wi, co, nh… then we need to focus on keeping thehouse and gaining the senate!

  10. No Tribe
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 1:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    WaPost has a new spending for ads tracker:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

    PA very much in play on both sides.

  11. jvnvch
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 7:52 am | Permalink | Reply

    There is no way Paleologos would go on O’Reilly’s show and say Suffolk is pulling out of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, coloring them red, if he weren’t absolutely convinced Romney has an insurmountable advantage in all three states. Suffolk does not lean right, so this is very bad news for President Obama.

    • WillBest
      Posted October 10, 2012 at 10:33 am | Permalink | Reply

      As he pointed out Obama hadn’t cleared 47% in any of their polls, and then this happened.

  12. Marcus Ellison
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Suffolk just polled Florida from 9/27-9/30 and had Obama up by 3 at that point. How could they go from that to Romney has it sewn up in 10 days without even polling the state again?

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html – scroll down to see the polls that are no longer in the average and there it is.

    Go here and the last Suffolk / WWBT poll of Virginia from 9/24-9/26 had Obama by two. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

    Same thing, their last poll in that state from a couple of weeks ago had Obama in front. Granted things have changed but without having polled the state again how can you be convinced that the other side now has it locked up?

    I did not see any Suffolk polls for North Carolina from any date on real clear politics.

    It may be that WSVN and WWBT the sponsors of the above noted Suffolk polls told them they are not going to pay them to poll those states again this cycle and Suffolk is just spinning it this way. If not I just question what their evidence is that the states are locked up.

    Both campaigns as noted in a recent diary on this website are both making significant ad buys still in both states as well as outside groups spending in both states and I haven’t seen any evidence that either campaign no longer plans to visit or compete in those states. Again not sure how hard both sides are still contesting North Carolina but both were spending money there recently, but clearly both sides seem to be vigorously competing in Virginia and Florida.

One Trackback

  1. […] latest from Suffolk University, who controversially announced they will stop polling North Carolina, Florida and Virginia because they believe those states are locked in for Romney, has the race neck-and-neck in Nevada.  […]

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