Romney +4 in Colorado — American Research Group

American Research Group (ARG) out with a new slate of polls confirming the expected surge from Romney after last week’s debate. In the Colorado survey Romney opens a 4-point lead, 50 to 46. The party ID was R +1 (Dem 33, Rep 34, Ind 33).  This compares to 2008 of R +1 (Dem 30, Rep 31, Ind 39) and 2004 R +9 (Dem 29, Rep 38, Ind 33).  So interestingly it is identical to the 2008 turnout but Romney leads by 4.  This is huge for Team Romney.  While I crush the pollsters for turnout models like this, always arguing for a split between 2008 and 2004, Colorado is a state trending Democrat with registrations and political affiliation in every election since 1996 so a split between 08 and 04 may not be perfect in this state.  That said, the Obama 2008 turnout also isn’t happening, it’s a likely voter survey, Romney hits 50% threshold and the 3rd Party threat is minimal so by any measure this is a great poll for Mitt Romney:

For President Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 50
Other 1
Undecided 3


  1. housebroken dad
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink | Reply

    Agreed. Great poll for Romney. I also like the OH one they released even though they are using the 2008 turnout model in that one too. Romney +1 but in a D+9 sample.

  2. jvnvch
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 4:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio are all but in the bank for Romney. It appears Colorado will put him over 270. Anything else will be gravy.

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